1、437,000 mTotal area:437,000 m22Limited arable landLimited arable land Arable land:11%Arable land:11%Permanent crops:1%Permanent crops:1%Desert:88%Desert:88%Largest Largest governatesgovernates Baghdad(8.0m)Baghdad(8.0m)Nineveh(2.1m)Nineveh(2.1m)Basra(2.0m)Basra(2.0m)Varying climate(Baghdad)Varying c
2、limate(Baghdad)Summer temp:35-50Summer temp:35-50 Winter temp:5-15Winter temp:5-15 Rainfall:155mm/yearRainfall:155mm/year Source:Country Watch,CIA world fact bookCar transportCar transport 39,000 km paved roads39,000 km paved roads 765,000 privately registered 765,000 privately registered passenger
3、carspassenger cars 266,000 privately registered 266,000 privately registered truckstrucksAirAir Major airports in Baghdad,Major airports in Baghdad,Basra and Basra and MosulMosulThree major railway routesThree major railway routes BaghdadBaghdadKirkukKirkuk IrbilIrbil BaghdadBaghdadMosulMosul Yurubi
4、yahYurubiyah BaghdadBaghdadMaagalMaagalUmm Umm QasrQasrTelecomTelecom 3%penetration,no mobile 3%penetration,no mobile networknetworkUtilities Utilities 250 water treatment 250 water treatment facilitiesfacilities Power generation capacity Power generation capacity of 9500(pre 1990),of 9500(pre 1990)
5、,currently at 1800MWcurrently at 1800MWGeography and climateInfrastructureThe majority of Iraq is characterized by desertOVERVIEW IRAQI GEOGRAPHYSource:CIA world fact book100%=24.2mOthersArabs-Shia MuslimsKurds Sunni Muslims46212Arabs Sunni Muslims22ESTIMATEPOPULATION SIZE BY ETHNIC GROUPShia Muslim
6、s form Iraqs ethnic majority%Adult literacy at Adult literacy at 54%(vs.75%in 54%(vs.75%in Iran)Iran)*From 6 to 23 years Source:EIU country profile Iraq 200219801998EDUCATION ENROLMENT RATIO FOR ALL AGES*-1980 VS.1998An increasing number of children does not receive formal educationESTIMATESource:Co
7、untry WatchProven reservesUnproven potentialTotalGas Trillion m3,2001OilBillion barrels,2001OVERVIEW OF IRAQS NATURAL OIL AND GAS RESERVESIraq has one of the largest natural oil and gas reservesESTIMATESource:BP Statistical review,20021.Saudi Arabia2.Iraq3.UAE4.Kuwait5.IranOil,proved reservesBillion
8、 barrels,2001Gas,proved reserves Trillion m3,20011.Russia2.Iran3.Qatar4.Saudi Arabia5.UAE10.IraqRANKING OF BIGGEST NATURAL OIL AND GAS RESERVES WORDWIDE which are the second largest in oil and the tenth largest in gasESTIMATE*Purchasing power parity method,current pricesSource:CIA World fact book;Co
9、untry Watch;EIU country risk report on Iraq 2003200250-6025-351980DEVELOPMENT OF IRAQS REAL GDP*-1980 TO 2002Over the past decade,Iraqs real GDP fell by 50%USD billionESTIMATE-50%-50%GDP estimates GDP estimates for 2002 subject for 2002 subject to wide variation to wide variation(USD 24-60(USD 24-60
10、 billion)billion)*Purchasing power parity method,current pricesSource:CIA World Factbook;Country Watch20023.8-4.51.0-1.41980ESTIMATEDEVELOPMENT OF IRAQS REAL GDP*PER CAPITA-1980 TO 2002 and purchasing power parity on individual level even furtherUSD thousandsGDP/capita GDP/capita estimates estimates
11、 subject to wide subject to wide variation(USD variation(USD 1.000-2.500)1.000-2.500)-70%-70%*Based on a GDP of USD30 billion and a population of 24 millionSource:EIU country profile IraqJordanIranIraqSaudi ArabiaSyria*ESTIMATECOMPARISON OF GDP PER CAPITA-2002Iraqs current GDP per capita is comparab
12、le to Syria and IranUSD thousandsSource:EIU country dataExternal debt$bnIraqSyria JordanIran230-485230-48510109191113113%of GPD60-130Main causes of Main causes of uncertainty areuncertainty are Accrued interestAccrued interest“Assistance”“Assistance”funds in Iran-funds in Iran-Iraq warIraq war Claim
13、s Claims following Gulf following Gulf war 1991war 1991ESTIMATECOMPARISON OF EXTERNAL LIABILITIES-2001Iraq has significant liabilities and can be considered bankruptAGENDAOverview IraqEconomic scenarios for IraqRecent developments Source:McKinsey“Good standard”1 1Assumes the non-oil sectors of the I
14、raqi economy grows modestly at a CAGR of 3-5%over the next 10 years(overall GDP growth incl.oil 9-11%)“Best in Class”2 2Assumes the non-oil part of the the Iraqi economy grows strongly at a CAGR of 7-9%over the next 10 years(overall GDP growth incl.oil 11-13%)“Distinctive”3 3Assumes the non-oil sect
15、ors of the Iraqi economy grows aggressively at a CAGR 12-15%over the next 10 years(overall GDP growth incl.oil 13-15%)ESTIMATEFOR DISCUSSIONTHREE DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOSIraqs In the World Class scenario Iraqi GDP per capita could reach 4,000 USD by 2013Non-oilSectors Oil production level 2008Oil production level 20134-5 million barrels per day6-7 million barrels per dayOilSector+*)Population in 2003=24 million,2008=29 million,2013=33 millionSource:McKinseyGDP development 2003-2013(in bn USD)GDP per capita*2003-2013(in 000 USD)ESTIMATEFOR