1、 These four charts help explain why. International trade in goods has already fallen as a proportion of global output in recent years, despite the upswing in the world economy. This is partly because of currency effects and changes in commodity prices, but manufacturers are also becoming less relian
2、t on imported inputs and popular hostility to globalisation may also be playing a part, with trade disputes and the use of anti-dumping measures on the rise even before the latest rounds of tariffs.World trade is largely concentrated in three regions: North America, Europe and East Asia, with a larg
3、e share of trade being intra-regional.4. Emerging markets may benefit if the dispute leads China to trade more with neighbours in south-east Asia. International trade is largely composed of trade flows between rich countries and the East Asian region but developing countries trade with China is incr
4、easingly important. A big question now is whether other countries in south-east Asia are able to benefit from greater integration with China as existing trade flows are diverted to new markets, and if Chinese manufacturers seek to shift production to countries not affected by tariffs.报道2: China stoc
5、ks tumble on US trade war concerns （Financial times） Chinese stocks cemented their position as the worlds worst performing major equity market on Monday, as they missed out on the return of some stability following last weeks global ructions. After rising 22 per cent in 2017, the CSI 300, an index o
6、f some of the largest companies listed on the Chinese mainland, has tumbled by the same amount so far in 2018, making it one of the bigger casualties of the US-China trade dispute. Chinas ambassador to the US, Cui Tiankai, told Fox News on Sunday that Beijing had not wanted a trade war but had “to r
7、espond and defend our own interests”. The sharp drop in Chinese equities, which hit a record peak in the middle of 2015 before plunging for the rest of that year, comes at an awkward time for foreign investors after index provider MSCI in June included more than 200 of the A-shares in its widely fol
8、lowed emerging market benchmark for the first time. George Efstathopoulos, a multi-asset portfolio manager at Fidelity International, said the trade wars had driven weakness in Chinese equities, with those companies most exposed to US trade hit hardest. The concern over trade tensions has deepened e
9、xisting worries over whether Chinese consumer spending is slowing down. On Monday, the CSI 300 finished 1.4 per cent lower, bringing its decline since it peaked for the year in late January to 28 per cent. Strategists at Citigroup pointed to an almost 25 per cent decline in car sales in September as
10、 evidence of the pressure on Chinas consumers. Although Chinese economic growth slowed in the second quarter to 6.7 per cent, strategists at Citi believe that the full drag from the trade dispute is yet to be felt. “We think the impact will show up in the coming quarters once the supply chains start
11、 to relocate elsewhere.” New York-based MSCI said last month that it was consulting with investors over a plan to double the number of A-shares in the EM index to 434 by May 2020, which MSCI estimates would attract about $66bn from passive and active funds. Gary Greenberg, head of global emerging ma
12、rkets at Hermes Investment Management, said the current weakness in Chinese stocks should not present a big risk to the inclusion of A-shares in the index, and that improving corporate governance in A-share companies was key. The continued weakness in Chinese equities was a sharp contrast to the per
13、formance of European markets which, as trading opened on Wall Street, had erased earlier losses. The S&P 500 was down 0.2 per cent in early trading, and after last weeks decline, is up just 3.5 per cent for the year. Beyond stocks in Shenzhen and Shanghai, the Hong Kong bourse was also under pressur
14、e on Monday. Tencent, the Chinese consumer technology company whose decline has been a significant drag on the Hang Seng index, fell a further 1.9 per cent on Monday. Its stock has now plunged 40 per cent from its January peak. Monday also saw a 2 per cent drop in Japans Nikkei 225, but analysts put
15、 much of that down to the 7 per cent drop in shares of SoftBank, which counts Saudi Arabia as the biggest investor in its Vision Fund. The kingdom, has come under intense pressure from politicians and business leaders over the disappearance of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.CHIAN daily 报道3 Trade war thr
16、eatens global growth: IMF （From China daily） NUSA DUA, Indonesia International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde on Thursday warned countries of the perils of a trade or a currency war, saying they could be detrimental to global growth and hurt “innocent bystanders”. Lagarde, at the
17、outset of the World Banks annual meeting with the IMF, urged countries to “de-escalate” trade frictions and fix global trading rules, rather than abandon them. We certainly hope we dont move in either direction of a trade war or a currency war. It will be detrimental on both accounts for all partici
18、pants,” Lagarde told a news conference during the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank on the Indonesian resort island of Bali. And there would also be lots of innocent bystanders.” She also defended central bank rate hikes in a veiled rebuke to Donald Trump after the US president blamed “crazy
19、” Fed policies for contributing to financial market turmoil. A global market sell-off rolled on following Trumps comments. Lagarde said central bank rate increases such as those by the policy-setting US Federal Reserve were justified by fundamentals. “It is clearly a necessary development for those
20、economies that are showing much-improved growth, inflation that is picking up . unemployment that is extremely low,” she said. “Its inevitable that central banks make the decisions that they make.” Following a sharp Wall Street sell-off on Wednesday, Trump said the Federal Reserve “is making a mista
21、ke”.“I think the Fed has gone crazy,” he said. In the shadow Threats to growth and the trade that helps drive it are overshadowing the gathering of finance officials, central bankers and other leaders on Bali, a tropical tourist destination that reflects Indonesias own rapid development over the pas
22、t three decades. World Bank President Jim Yong Kim said escalating trade tensions between the US and China could undo global progress in helping end extreme poverty.He joined Lagarde and others in warning of the risks to world growth and economic development from threats to world trade after the US
23、imposed tariffs on tens of millions of dollars of Chinese exports and China responded with similar retaliatory taxes on imports of US goods. “Were very concerned about trade tensions,” Kim said. “Trade is very critical because that is what has lifted people out of extreme poverty. “I am a globalist.
24、 That is my job. That is our only chance of ending extreme poverty. We need more trade not less trade.” He said the World Bank was working with countries to prepare for a worsening situation because if tariffs were imposed to the most extreme limits there would be a “clear slowdown and the impact on
25、 the developing countries would be greater”. Lagarde said she would advise Washington and Beijing to cool down. 报道四Trade standoff hits US and China stocks（China Daily） Stocks slumped on global markets on Tuesday as investors began to fear that the China-US trade dispute could erupt into an all-out t
26、rade war. In China, Shanghai stocks tumbled 3.78 percent to a two-year low of 2,907.82, while Shenzhen was down 5.31 percent. The selloff spread to other Asian markets and to Europe. Hong Kongs Hang Seng Index finished 2.76 percent lower. Stock markets in London, Paris and Frankfurt declined. In the
27、 US, all the major indices fell as the Dow Industrials lost 287.26 points or 1.15 percent to finish at 24,700.21, the averages worst day this month, which pushed it slightly negative for the year. As they did on Monday, US industrial companies including heavy equipment maker Caterpillar and aerospac
28、e company Boeing the biggest US exporter to China declined on Tuesday, dropping more than 3 percent each on the New York Stock Exchange. Shares of Chinese companies listed in the US including e-commerce company Alibaba slid 2 percent and search engine Baidu declined 2.5 percent. Kate Warne, investme
29、nt strategist for Edward Jones, said investors are concerned about what they are seeing, but they still believe the US and China will work out their differences. Theres concern but theres not overall great worry at this stage, she told The Associated Press. We are certainly taking the first steps to
30、ward a trade war, and the more tit-for-tat actions are taken, the harder it is to pull back. The stock market declines on Tuesday followed US President Donald Trumps late-Monday threat to put an additional $200 billion in tariffs on Chinese imports unless China agrees to major trade concessions.If t
31、he US loses its senses and publishes a new list, China will be forced to take comprehensive measures that are both strong in quantity and gravity and will fight back, the Ministry of Commerce said in a statement. Trumps trade adviser Peter Navarro said Tuesday that tariffs against China will be ultimately bullish for American businesses, as the administration tries to bring structural change.Trump is playing a game of ch
