ICM优秀论文.docx
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ICM优秀论文.docx
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ICM优秀论文
NetworkScienceModelingforCrimeBusting
Summary
Inrecentdecades,networksciencehasgainedsignificantdevelopmentbecauseofthethroughoutnetworkstructure.Besides,itiswidelyusedinvariousfields,focusingonthestudyofmultiplenetworkmodels.
Inthispaper,weapplynetworksciencetocrimebusting.Avariablenamedconspiracylikelihoodisdefinedtoquantifyhowlikelyonepersonisaconspirator.ThenweanalyzetheCriminalinformationnetworkbyestablishingseveralmodelsfromshallowtodeep.
Forproblemone,thispaperestablishedafuzzyevaluationmodelbasedonsocialnetworkanalysis(SNA).Usingfuzzyanalytichierarchyprocess,wecomprehensivelythinkabouttheseindexestoevaluatethepersonnelsuspectedofdegree.Thenweidentifypossibleaccompliceandsortaccordingtothevolumeofsuspectedtheirpossibility.Itcomesoutthatthemostlikelyconspiratorsare81,51,16,33,57,60,28,79,10.Thecompleteprioritylistandotherdetailsofrequirement1areshowedinthepaper.
To determine the leaders in the crime, we establish a model identifyingsuspects leader based on the theory of centricity. We take three factors into consideration which are degree centrality, betweenness centrality and closeness centrality to evaluate every possible suspect. And introduce a comprehensive index ultimately to determine the crime group leader Gretchen.
Forproblemtwo,thispaperappliesthefuzzyevaluationmodeloftheproblemone.Itcomesoutthatthemostlikelyconspiratorsare16,81,51,56,33,57,60,28,10,79,69,13,17,15.Thecompleteprioritylistandotherdetailsofrequirement2areshowedinthepaper.
Forproblemthree,thispaperbuildsaweightedsocialnetwork---semanticnetworkonthebasisofthedemandtooptimizationthemodelwhichhasbeenestablished.Weusetherelationshipbetweenconceptsandpropertiestodefineaapplicablesemanticnetworktothecurrentcase.Thenfixingweightvaluestoeachtopicaccordingtothespecificcontentofnewsanditscontext.Finally,usingtextanalysistolearnthetopicfurthertoovercomethedefectscausedbythedataelementsinthemodel.
Atlast,thestrengthandweaknessofourmodelarediscussedandthefutureworkispointedaswell.
Keywords:
fuzzyevaluationmodel;socialnetworkanalysis(SNA);semanticnetwork;textanalysis;theory of centricity
1.Introduction
1.1Problembackground
Yourorganization,theIntergalacticCrimeModelers(ICM),isinvestigatingaconspiracytocommitacriminalact.Theinvestigatorsarehighlyconfidenttheyknowseveralmembersoftheconspiracy,buthopetoidentifytheothermembersandtheleadersbeforetheymakearrests.Theconspiratorsandthepossiblesuspectedconspiratorsallworkforthesamecompanyinalargeofficecomplex.Thecompanyhasbeengrowingfastandmakinganameforitselfindevelopingandmarketingcomputersoftwareforbanksandcreditcardcompanies.ICMhasrecentlyfoundasmallsetofmessagesfromagroupof82workersinthecompanythattheybelievewillhelpthemfindthemostlikelycandidatesfortheunidentifiedco‐conspiratorsandunknownleaders.Sincethemessagetrafficisforalltheofficeworkersinthecompany,itisverylikelythatsome(maybemany)oftheidentifiedcommunicatorsinthemessagetrafficarenotinvolvedintheconspiracy.Infact,theyarecertainthattheyknowsomepeoplewhoarenotintheconspiracy.Thegoalofthemodelingeffortwillbetoidentifypeopleintheofficecomplexwhoarethemostlikelyconspirators.AprioritylistwouldbeidealsoICMcouldinvestigate,placeundersurveillance,and/orinterrogatethemostlikelycandidates.Adiscriminatelineseparatingconspiratorsfromnon‐conspiratorswouldalsobehelpfultodistinctlycategorizethepeopleineachgroup.ItwouldalsobehelpfultotheDA’sofficeifthemodelnominatedtheconspiracyleaders.
1.2Previousresearch
Werefertosomesocialnetworkrelationmodelsaboutcrimeorganizationstructureofthearticle.Suchasthepassage‘Enterprisehiddencrimedetectionbasedonsocialnetworkanalysisoffuzzyevaluationmodel’writtenbyZengYonginChinauniversityofPetroleum,and‘criminalorganizationstructureofsocialnetworkanalysis’writtenbyChenPenginTsinghuauniversity.Wehavelearnedaboutthebasicresearchonthefuzzyevaluationmethodandrelevantevaluationparametersofthemodel.
1.3Ourwork
Weapplynetworksciencetocrimebusting.Avariablenamedconspiracylikelihoodisdefinedtoquantifyhowlikelyonepersonisaconspirator.ThenweanalyzetheCriminalinformationnetworkbyestablishingseveralmodelsfromshallowtodeep.
2.Analysis
2.1Analysisforquestionone
Thispaperestablishedafuzzyevaluationmodelbasedonsocialnetworkanalysis(SNA).Throughthesocialnetworkanalysiswecreateanindextoreflectthecharacteristicsoftheenterpriseinternalstaffsocialactivities.Usingfuzzyanalytichierarchyprocess,wecomprehensivelythinkabouttheseindexestoevaluatethepersonnelsuspectedofdegreeandthenfindoutthepossibilityofeveryonethatmayparticipateincriminalgangquantitativelyandidentifypossibleaccompliceandsortaccordingtothevolumeofsuspectedtheirpossibility.Inthelast,basedonthemodelcentricitytheoryweestablishedamodeltoidentifythesuspectleaders,gettingthemostpossiblecriminalgroupleaders.
2.2Analysisforquestiontwo
Thesolutiontoproblemtwoisthesameasthatofproblemone.Bothofthemusesocialnetworkanalysismethodtoestablishfuzzyevaluationmodel.Inthesecondquestion,weknowextraconditions.TopiconeisrelatedtotheplotandChrisisoneoftheaccomplices.
2.3Analysisforquestionthree
Semanticwebisalsoakindofnetwork,andthroughtheuseofthenetworkstructureofmutuallyconnectednodes,wetakeedgestorepresentthesemanticsoftherelationshipbetweentheconcepts.Sowecanusethetheoryofsemanticwebandacrimetheconceptsthatcanreflecttherelationshipbetweenthemultiplediagrams.Weusesemanticnetworkanalysismethodtogetherwiththeabovementionedcenterdegreeanalysisinourmodel.
3.Symbols,DefinitionsandAssumptions
3.1SymbolsandDefinitions
symbols
Definitions
i
companyemployeenumber
thecommunicationdegreeofnodesiandthesuspect
thecommunicationdegreeofnodesiandnon-suspects
u
oneofthesuspects/non-suspectentifiedsuspectsthenumberofnon-suspects
d(i,u)
theshortestdistancefromitou
theseriesofstagesrelativeLANandnodei
themostremoteplacethatnodeicanaffect
themaximumvalueoftheenterpriseLANseriesofallpersonnel
therelativenodecentralityofnodei
thenumberofreceivedmessages
thenumberofmessagessentout
thenumberofreceivedmessageswithsuspectthings
thenumberofmessagessentoutwithsuspectthings
thecenterpointofthepotential
thenumberofmessagesreceivedbythenodei
themaximumnumberofreceivedmessagesintheenterprise
3.2Generalassumptions
●Problem1,2onlythinkthatthetheme7.13.15aresuspiciousandothersarenormalsubjects,namelynotconsideringtheeffectofsubjectspecificcontentofsuspiciousdegree.Problem3requiresustotaketheconcretecontentofthethemesintoconsiderationsoastooptimizethemodelshavenbeenbuilt.
●Assumingthattheemergenceofinformationhasnothingtodowiththetime.
●Assumingthatthedataistrueanderrorscanbeignored.
●Assumingthatallmembersparticipateinthecontactandthereisnoisolatepointinthenetwork.
4.Threemodelsfortheproblems
4.1Model1:
Socialnetworkmodel
4.1.1Modelintroduction
Socialnetworkanalysisisakindofsociologicalresearchmethodsandsocialnetworkmodelisestablishedbasedonthemethod.Sociologicaltheoryisthatsocietynotmadeupofindividualsbutbythenetwork,networknodesandcontainstherelationshipbetweenthesocialnetworkanalysismethodthroughtheanalysisabouttherelationbetweenthenetworktostudythestructureandpropertyfeatureofthenetwork,includingnetworkofindividualattributesandtheoverallproperties.Networkindividualattributesanalysisincludes:
pointcentrality,closenesscentralitydegree,etc.Networkanalysisoftheoverallpropertiesincludessmallworldeffect,smallgroupresearch,condensingsubgroup,andsoon.Thismodelismainlyusedincriminology,electionpolls.
4.1.2Theestablishmentofthecriminalnetworkmodel
Intheenterprisesocialnetworkstructure,anoderepresentsacompanyemployeeandalinebetweentwonodesrepresentstheircommunication.Soweusethecollectionsofnodesanddirectedconnectionoftwonodestoestablishthemodel.
Picture1:
thestructureofcriminalnetwork
Network=(V,L)
TheNetworkmeanstherelationshipbetweendifferentnodes.Vmeansnodecollectionsorallthestaffsinthecompany.
.
isasinglenodeandNisthecollectionofnaturalnumbers.EachnodehastwokindsofcommunicationdegreeCwhicharein-degreeandout-degree.In-degreeisthenumberofmessagesthatonenodereceivedandonthecontraryout-degreeisthenumberofmessagesthatonenodesentout.Lrepresentsdifferentcommunicationpathsbetweenthenodes.
andinthisformula,
meansthenumberofmessagesthat
sentto
.TakethemethodSNAintoconsideration,basedonthenodeanditsresponserelationship,webuildaresponserelationshipmatrixS.Thereforetheenterprisecommunicationnetworkcanbeturnedintoacomputablesocialscience.
Replyrelationshipmatrix:
4.2Model2:
fuzzyevaluationmodel
4.2.1Theestablishmentofthefuzzyevaluationmodel
Thepossibilityofeachmemberintheenterprisetoparticipateinthecriminalgangisinvo
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