麦肯锡报告银行业发展能否超越兼并收购Word格式文档下载.docx
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麦肯锡报告银行业发展能否超越兼并收购Word格式文档下载.docx
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麦肯锡报告银行业发展能否超越兼并收购@#@USbankswillneedtolookbeyondmergersforgrowth.Betterearningswillhavetobewonfromimprovedvaluepropositionsandproductivity.@#@KevinP.Coyne,LennyT.Mendonca,andGregoryWilson@#@TheMcKinseyQuarterly,2004Number1@#@Theprimaryrationalebehindthewaveofmergersinthe1990s梩oachievesubstantialeconomiesofscalebyexploitingtechnologyandderegulation梚snaturallyweakening.Formostlargebanks,furtherexpansionwon抰necessarilyyielddramaticscale-basedsavingsinsystemsandproduct-developmentcosts.Soalthoughmergerswillcontinuetotakeplace,opportunitiestocreatesubstantialvaluehavediminishedandrelativelyfewerdealswillpackthepunchofthe1990s.Executivesoflargebanksmustlookfornewwaystoincreaseearnings.@#@Untilrecently,thesolutionwasfallinginterestrates,whichfueledunprecedentedprofitsfrommortgagesandcreditcards.1Butwithratesbeginningtorise,bankswillhavetolookelsewhere.Morecompellingvaluepropositionsarerequiredifbanksaretocompetewiththenonbanksandspecialiststhathaveflourishedinmanymarkets.Likethebestretailers,banksmustdifferentiatethemselvesbyunderstandingtheneedsoftheircustomersandgivingthosecustomersadistinctiveexperience.Banksshouldalsoboosttheirperformancetheold-fashionedway,byimprovingproductivity梥omethingthatwillbecomevitalastheirpaymentsbusinesses,representingasubstantialshareofindustryprofitsandoperatingexpenses,shrinkwiththefallinguseofchecks.@#@Tosucceedinthesetasks,banksmustinnovateintheirformats,theircustomertargeting,theirapproachtolendingandassetmanagement,theiroperations,andtheiruseofelectronicpayments.Thisagendaischallenging,anditcallsforskillsbeyondthose梥uchasidentifyingandvaluingacquisitiontargetsanddrivingintegration梩hatservedexecutivessowellintherecentpast.Significantchangeslieaheadformanagersworkingtowardanewsetofperformancepriorities.@#@Theoldgamewindsdown@#@Althoughthebankingindustry抯structureandregulatoryframeworkwillpermitmoremergersinthefuture,thereducedpotentialforsynergiesmeansthatCEOswhomakedealstheirprimarystrategicfocuscouldbedisappointedbytheresults.Someobviouspairingswillrealizeworthwhilecostsavings,especiallyamongsecond-andthird-tierbanks,butformostlargeinstitutionstheopportunitiesforconsolidationarenotwhattheywereafewyearsago.@#@Duringthe1990s,theeconomicrationaleformergerswasindisputable.Enormousefficiencygapsbetweentheacquirerandtheacquiredoftencreatedcostandrevenuesynergiesrangingfrom30to100percentofaseller抯netincome.2Newtechnologymademanyoftheseefficiencygainspossiblebyfacilitatingtheconsolidationofbranches.Inaddition,theRiegle朜ealActof1994,whichallowedbankholdingcompaniestoacquirebanksinanystate,openedthedoortopairings梥uchasthosebetweenBankofAmericaandNationsBank,andNorwestandWellsFargo梩hatpreviouslywouldhavebeendifficultorimpossible.@#@Sosuccessfulwasthiswaveofmergersthattheindustryprogressedtowardanaturalendgameinwhichahandfulofnationwidebanksbegantoemerge.Althoughcurbedbyaregulationlimitinganindividualbank抯shareofUSdepositsto10percentofthetotal(which,withantitrustsafeguards,ensuredthatthousandsofcommunitybankscontinuedtothrive),thetopteninstitutionsincreasedtheirshareofUSdepositsfrom27percentin1994to44percentin2002(Exhibit1).@#@Butthelargerbankshavepickedmostoftheopportunitiesfromconsolidation.Today抯possiblecombinationsamongthelargerinstitutionspresentfewergeographicoverlaps.Whilescaleeconomiesarealwayshelpful,mostleadingbanksarealreadybigenoughtosupportthesystems,branding,andproduct-developmentcostsofthenextfewyears.Tobesure,bankmergersarenotathingofthepast.Underthe10percentdepositceiling,thereisstillroomforthetop20or25playerstomakesubstantialacquisitionsandfortwoorthreemovesthatwouldcreatethehandfuloftrulynationalbanksanticipatedwiththeRiegle朜ealAct抯passage.Moreover,manymiddle-tierregionalbankshavesurvivedandprosperedandwillprobablyconsolidatefurther.Therationalesupportingbig-bankmergersduringthe1990sthusstillapplies,particularlygiventhegeographicconcentrationofmanyregionalbanks:
@#@atleasteightmiddle-tierbanksdobusinessinAlabama,Georgia,andTennessee,forexample.@#@Yettheeconomicsmeanthatmanybigdealswillbemorelikelytoexploitreducedvaluations,opportunitiesfortransferringskills,orthepossibilityofexpandingintonewbusinessesorgeographiesthanthecostsynergiesthatoftenjustifiedsignificantpremiumsduringthe1990s.Bothmanagerialcapabilitiesandeconomiesofscopewillbedriversofwell-receiveddea
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