M18KRUG89289EIMC18Word格式文档下载.docx
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M18KRUG89289EIMC18Word格式文档下载.docx
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TheCentralBankBalanceSheetandtheMoneySupply
ForeignExchangeInterventionandtheMoneySupply
Sterilization
TheBalanceofPaymentsandtheMoneySupply
HowtheCentralBankFixestheExchangeRate
ForeignExchangeMarketEquilibriumUnderaFixedExchangeRate
MoneyMarketEquilibriumUnderaFixedExchangeRate
ADiagrammaticAnalysis
StabilizationPolicieswithaFixedExchangeRate
MonetaryPolicy
FiscalPolicy
ChangesintheExchangeRate
AdjustmenttoFiscalPolicyandExchangeRateChanges
BalanceofPaymentsCrisesandCapitalFlight
ManagedFloatingandSterilizedIntervention
PerfectAssetSubstitutabilityandtheIneffectivenessofSterilizedIntervention
Box:
Brazil’s1998–1999BalanceofPaymentsCrisis
ForeignExchangeMarketEquilibriumUnderImperfectAssetSubstitutability
TheEffectsofSterilizedInterventionwithImperfectAssetSubstitutability
EvidenceontheEffectsofSterilizedIntervention
ReserveCurrenciesintheWorldMonetarySystem
TheMechanicsofaReserveCurrencyStandard
TheAsymmetricPositionoftheReserveCenter
TheGoldStandard
TheMechanicsofaGoldStandard
SymmetricMonetaryAdjustmentUnderaGoldStandard
BenefitsandDrawbacksoftheGoldStandard
BimetallicStandard
TheGoldExchangeStandard
CaseStudy:
TheDemandforInternationalReserves
Summary
APPENDIX1TOCHAPTER18:
EquilibriumintheForeign-ExchangeMarketwith
ImperfectAssetSubstitutability
APPENDIX2TOCHAPTER18:
TheTimingofBalanceofPaymentsCrises
OnlineAppendix:
TheMonetaryApproachtotheBalanceofPayments
2 ChapterOverview
Open-economymacroeconomicanalysisunderfixedexchangeratesisdualtotheanalysisofflexibleexchangerates.Underfixedexchangerates,attentionisfocusedontheeffectsofpoliciesonthebalanceofpayments(andthedomesticmoneysupply),takingtheexchangerateasgiven.Conversely,underflexibleexchangerateswithnoofficialforeign-exchangeintervention,thebalanceofpaymentsequalszero,themoneysupplyisapolicyvariable,andanalysisfocusesonexchangeratedetermination.Intheintermediatecaseofmanagedfloating,boththemoneysupplyandtheexchangeratebecome,toanextentwhichisdeterminedbycentralbankpolicies,endogenous.
Thischapteranalyzesvarioustypesofmonetarypolicyregimesunderwhichthedegreeofexchange-
rateflexibilityislimited.Thereasonsfordevotingachaptertothistopic,morethan30yearsafter
thebreakdownoftheBrettonWoodssystem,includetheprevalenceofmanagedfloatingamongindustrializedcountries,thecommonuseoffixedexchangerateregimesamongdevelopingcountries,
theexistenceofregionalcurrencyarrangementssuchastheExchangeRateMechanismthroughwhichsomeEuropeannationspegtotheeuro,therecurrentcallsforanewinternationalmonetaryregimebaseduponmoreaggressiveexchange-ratemanagement,andtheirrevocablyfixedratesamongcountrieswhichusetheeuro(atopicaddressedindepthinChapter20).
Thechapterbeginswithananalysisofastylizedcentralbankbalancesheettoshowthelinkbetween
thebalanceofpayments,officialforeign-exchangeintervention,andthedomesticmoneysupply.Alsodescribedissterilizedinterventioninforeignexchange,whichchangesthecompositionofinterest-bearingassetsheldbythepublicbutnotthemoneysupply.ThisanalysisisthencombinedwiththeexchangeratedeterminationanalysisofChapter15todemonstratethemannerinwhichcentralbanksalterthemoneysupplytopegthenominalexchangerate.Theendogeneityofthemoneysupplyunderfixedexchangeratesemergesasakeylessonofthisdiscussion.
ThetoolsdevelopedinChapter17areemployedtodemonstratetheimpotenceofmonetarypolicyandtheeffectivenessoffiscalpolicyunderafixedexchangerateregime.Theshort-runandlong-runeffectsofdevaluationandrevaluationareexamined.Thesetupalreadydevelopedsuggestsanaturaldescriptionofbalanceofpaymentscrisesasepisodesinwhichthepubliccomestoexpectafuturecurrencydevaluation.Suchanexpectationcausesprivatecapitalflightand,asitscounterpart,sharpofficialreservelosses.Differentexplanationsofcurrencycrisesareexplored,boththosethatarguethatcrisesresultfrominconsistentpoliciesandthosethatmaintaincrisesarenotnecessarilyinevitablebutinsteadresult
fromself-fulfillingexpectations.(SeeAppendix2tothischapterforamoredetailedanalysis.)
Equippedwithanunderstandingofthepolarcasesoffixedandfloatingrates,thestudentisinapositiontoappreciatethemorerealisticintermediatecaseofmanagedfloating.Thediscussionofmanagedfloatingfocusesontheroleofsterilizedforeign-exchangeinterventionandthetheoryofimperfect
assetsubstitutability.Theinclusionofariskpremiuminthemodelenrichestheanalysisbyallowinggovernmentssomescopetorunindependentexchangerateandmonetarypoliciesintheshortrun.Thechapterreviewstheresultsofattemptstodemonstrateempiricallytheeffectivenessofsterilizedforeign-exchangeoperationswhich,however,aregenerallynegative.Alsodiscussedistheroleofcentralbankinterventionasa“signal”offuturepolicyactionsandthecredibilityproblemsentailedbysuchastrategy.Thecasestudyattheendofthechapterconsidershowtheneedforreservesinacrisis—andthepotentialdifficultyofacquiringthemduringone—leadstoastrongincentivetoholdreservesinaprecautionarymanneriftheywanttocushionabalanceofpaymentscrisis.
Atthispoint,thediscussionabandonsthesmallcountryframeworkinfavorofasystemicperspectivetodiscussthepropertiesoftwodifferentfixedexchangeratesystems:
thereserve-currencysystemsandthegoldstandards.Akeydistinctionbetweenthesesystemsistheasymmetrybetweenthereservecenterandtherestoftheworldcomparedtothesymmetricadjustmentamongallcountriesunderthegoldstandard.Itisshownthatthisasymmetrygivesthereservecenterexclusivecontroloverworldmonetaryconditions(atleastwheninterestparitylinkscountries’moneymarkets).
Thechapterendswithadiscussionoftheprosandconsofthegoldstandardandthegold-exchangestandard.Appendix1presentsamoredetailedmodelofexchangeratedeterminationwithimperfectassetsubstitutability.Appendix2providesananalysisofthetimingofbalanceofpaymentscrises.Oneonlineappendixdescribesthemonetaryapproachtothebalanceofpaymentsanditsusefulnessasatoolofpolicyanalysis,andanotherconsidersliquiditytraps.
3 AnswerstoTextbookProblems
1.Anexpansionofthecentralbank’sdomesticassetsleadstoanequalfallinitsforeignassets,with
nochangeinthebank’sliabilities(orthemoneysupply).Theeffectonthebalance-of-paymentsaccountsismosteasilyunderstoodbyrecallinghowthefallinforeignreservescomesabout.Afterthecentralbankbuysdomesticassetswithmoney,thereisinitiallyanexcesssupplyofmoney.Thecentralbankmustinterveneintheforeignexchangemarkettoholdtheexchangeratefixedinthefaceofthisexcesssupply:
thebanksellsforeignassetsandbuysmoneyuntiltheexcesssupplyofmoneyhasbeeneliminated.Sinceprivateresidentsacquirethereservesthecentralbankloses,thereisanon-centralbankcapitaloutflow(afinancial-accountdebit)equaltotheincreaseinforeignassetsheldbytheprivatesector.Theoffsettingcreditisthereductionincentralbankholdingsofforeignassets,anofficialfinancialinflow.
2.Anincreaseingovernmentspendingraisesincomeandalsomoneydemand.Thecentralbankpreventstheinitialexcessmoneydemandfromappreciatingthedomesticcurrencybypurchasingforeignassetsfromthedomesticpublic.Centralbankforeignassetsrise,asdothecentralbank’sliabilitiesand,withthem,themoneysupply.Thecentralbank’sadditionalreserveholdingsshowupasanofficialcapitaloutflow,acapital-accountdebit.Offsettingthisdebitisthecapitalinflow
(acredit)associatedwiththepublic’sequalreductioninitsownforeignassets.
3.Aone-timeunexpecteddevaluationinitiallyincreasesoutput;
theoutputincrease,inturn,raisesmoneydemand.Thecentralbankmustaccommodatethehighermoneydemandbybuyingforeignassetswithdomesticcurrency,astepthatraisesthecentralbank’sliabilities(andthehomemoneysupply)atthesametimeasitincreasesthebank’sforeignassets.Theincreaseinofficialforeignreservesisanofficialcapitaloutflow;
itismatchedinthebalanceofpaymentsaccountsbytheequalcapitaloutflowassociatedwiththepublic’sownreductioninnetforeignassetholdings.(Thepublicmustexchangeforeignassetsforthemoneyitbuysfromthecentralbank,eitherbysellingforeignassetsorbyborrowingforeigncurrencyabroad.Eithercourseofactionisacapitalinflow.)
Amoresubtleissueisthefollowing:
whenthepriceofforeigncurrencyisraised,thevalueoftheinitialstockofforeignreservesriseswhenmeasuredintermsofdomesticcurrency.Thiscapitalgaininitselfraisescentralbankforeignassets(whichweremeasuredindomesticcurrencyunitsinouranalysis)—sowhereisthecorrespondingincreaseinliabilities?
Doesthecentralbankinjectmorecurrencyorbanksystemreservesintotheeconomytobalanceitsbalancesheet?
Theansweristhatcentralbanksgenerallycreatefictionalaccountingliabilitiestooffsettheeffectofexchange-ratefluctuationsonthehome-currencyvalueofinternationalreserves.Thesecapit
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