WSDAAFT Agricultural Lands Statistics Working Paperrev1Word文件下载.docx
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WSDAAFT Agricultural Lands Statistics Working Paperrev1Word文件下载.docx
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What,ifanything,mightwebeabletodoaboutit?
Thispaperisdesignedtoprovidesomeofthebasicstatisticalinformationthatwillhelpusanswerthosequestions.
Workingstatisticsoncost-availabilityofWashington’sFarmlands:
∙Landinagriculture.Thetotalnumberofacres,ofallkinds,inagricultureinWashingtonhasdiminishedovertheyears.Duringthe10yearsbetween1997and2007,theCensusofAgriculturereportedalossofapproximately678,606acresinagricultureinWashington,droppingfrom15,778,606in1997acresto15,318,008acresin2002,andthentoapproximately15,100,000acresin2007.Thiswasalossofabout4.3%overthose10years.
Analysis:
Thereareawidevarietyofreasonslandmightdisappearfromagricultureovertime.Thesemightincludedevelopment,conversiontonon-agriculturalestates,environmentalconversion,non-cultivationbyformerfarmers/ranchers,publicacquisition,etc.Notalsothatthisnumberdoesnot,alone,indicatethetypeorqualityofagriculturallandthatisdisappearing.
∙Landlosttodevelopment:
ThemostrecentUSDANationalResourcesInventorydataindicatesthat,between1992and1997,118,600acresofagriculturallandwereconvertedtodevelopeduses.ThustheStateofWashingtonlostanaverageof23,720acresperyearjusttodevelopmentoverthis5yearperiod.
Theamountoflandlostfromagricultureoverallisnotthesameastheamountthatmayhavebeenspecificallylosttodevelopment–thisfigurewasanattemptbyUSDAtoseparateoutlossestodevelopeduses.Theredonotappeartobeanyoverallstatisticsreflectingtotalacreslostforotherreasons(e.g.,non-cultivation,environmentalconversion,publicacquisition,other).(Comparetheabovenumberswithstatisticsforlossofprimefarmland,below.)Bywayofreference,23,720acresisroughlyequivalenttothesizeofLakeWashington.
∙Ageofowners:
Between1997and2002,theaverageageoffarm/ranchoperatorsinWashingtonincreased.AndtheamountoflandmanagedbyolderoperatorssignificantlyincreasedtowelloverhalftheactivefarmlandintheState.
19972002
oPercentageofoperators55yearsofageandolder:
46%50%
oLandmanagedbyoperators55andolder(acres):
5,954,1788,690,036
oLandmanagedbyoperators55andolder(percent)38%57%
Agriculturallandmanagedbyoperators55yearsofageandolder
(inmillionacres)
Therateatwhichlandbecomesvulnerabletoconversiontonon-farmusesisaffectedbytheageofitsownersoroperators.Asfarmersreachretirementage,thechancesthattheirlandwillgoonthemarketforsaleincrease.Theabovestatisticssuggesttwotrends:
1)TheaverageageofWashingtonfarmerscontinuestorise.2)Thepercentageoflandmanagedbyolderfarmersisalsorising,butthisishappeningfasterthantheageincrease.Thereareseveralpotentialexplanationsforthisphenomenon.Buttheimpactonavailabilityoflandisprobablytogenerallyincreasethevulnerabilityoffarmlandtosaleinthegeneralmarket.
∙Averagesizeoffarm:
TheaveragesizeoffarmsinWashingtonhasvariedsubstantiallyoverthepast20years.Averagefarmsizeisshownonthefollowingtable:
1987–4801992–5202002–4262006–4442007–458
AtleasthereinWashington,theredoesnotappeartobeanyclearorstrongtrendoverthepast20yearperiodintheaveragesizeofaWashingtonfarm.Washington’sagricultureishighlydiversebothincropsgrown/raised,andinthetypesoflandinagricultureandsizedoffarmsandranches.Therecouldbemixedtrendsaffectingdifferentsegmentsofagriculturehiddenintheabovedata.Itmaybe,forexample,thatfarmsinurban-edgecommunitiesarebecomingsmaller,drivenbylandfragmentationanddevelopmentpressure.Atthesametime,itmaybethatindustrytrends,overall,drivenbytheeconomicsoftheagriculturebusiness,aremovingtolargerfarms.Thesestatisticsonlycapturetheaverage.
∙Farmandnon-farmusescompared,statewide:
Agriculturecoversabout1/3ofthelandareaofWashingtonorabout1/2oftheprivatelandinthisstate.Thefollowingtableshowstotalacreagesinvariousagriculturalandnon-agriculturallandusesandtheirpercentagesofthestatetotaland(foragriculturaluses)ofthetotallandinagriculture.
WashingtonLanduses
Acresx1000
%ofTotalforState
%ofTotalAgriculture
Cultivatedcropland(rowcrops,closegrowncropsetc.)
5,407.2
12.3
37.0
Non-cultivatedcropland(hay,horticulture,etc.)
1,086.6
2.5
7.4
CRPland
1,194.3
2.7
8.2
Pastureland
1,080.1
Rangeland
5,861.0
13.3
40.1
Agriculturaltotal
33.2
100.0
Forestland
12,707.1
28.8
Otherruralland
953.4
2.2
Developedland
2,279.4
5.2
Waterareas
1,542.7
3.5
Federalland
11,923.5
27.1
Statetotal
44,035.3
[Notethatthetotalforalllandsinagriculture,inthistable,addupto14,629,200acresratherthanthe15,318,008showninthe2002CensusofAgriculture.Presumablythisisaccountedforbydifferencesinmethodsofcalculationandinmarginsoferror.Alsonotethatsomeoftheseusesmayoverlap(e.g.farmandforest).Onecanprobablyassumethatthepercentageforeachoftheagriculturalusesisatleastapproximate.]
Somekeyhighlightsfromthistableinclude:
Activeagricultureoccupiesabout1/3ofthetotallandareaoftheStateofWashingtonandperhaps½
oftheprivatelands.Takentogether,pastureandrangelandsoccupyabout47.5%ofagriculturallandsandcultivatedandnon-cultivatedcroplandsoccupyabout44.4%ofagriculturallands(withabout8.4%inCRP).Keepinmindthelikelyoverlapbetweenfarmandforestlands.Also,ofinterest,isthefactthatthisabout½
ofthestate’sprivatelandbaseisownedbyroughly36,000farmoperators,orabout0.6%oftheroughly6milliontotalpopulationofthisstate.
∙Farmsize,numbers,andsales:
Tofullyunderstandthemixofsmall,mid-sized,andlargerfarms(atleastintermsofacreageandsales,onecancomparegroupsoffarmsbygrossannualsales,numbersoffarmsinthatsalesgrouping,andtheaverageacreageproducingthosesales.
Oftheapproximately15.1millionacresreportedinagriculturein2007inWashington,therewereabout:
∙17,800farmsoccupying1millionacres(foranaveragefarmsizeof56acres)engagedinfarmingoperationswithannualsalesaveraginglessthan$10,000;
∙8,300farmsoccupying2.6millionacres(foranaveragefarmsizeof313acres)engagedinoperationswithannualsalesaveragingbetween$10,000and$100,000;
∙2,950farmsoccupying3.2millionacres(foranaveragefarmsizeof1,085acres)engagedinoperationswithannualsalesaveragingbetween$100,000and$250,000;
∙1,800farmsoccupying2.55millionacres(foranaveragefarmsizeof1,417acres)engagedinoperationswithannualsalesaveragingbetween$250,000and$500,000;
and,
∙2,150farmsoccupying5.75millionacres(foranaveragefarmsizeof2,674acres)engagedinoperationswithannualsalesaveragingover$500,000.
Numbersoffarmsbytotal$valueofannualsalesinWashington
(Totalnumberoffarms=36,000)
Whilethereareobviouslyagreatmanyfarmsthatprovidemarginalincomefromagriculture,onenotablefeatureofthisdataisthatthevastmajorityofWashington’sfarmacreage(about76.5%)isengagedinagriculturalactivitiesthatareearningthefarmownersgrossrevenueofover$100,000perfarmperyear.Andamajorityofourfarmacreage(about54%)isearningitsownersrevenueofover$250,000perfarmperyear.Thegreatertheacreage,thegreatertheaveragesales(asonemightexpect),butthelargeracreagesdonotproducesalesproportionatetotheirsizecomparedtothesmaller–probablyreflectingthemorelandextensivenatureofsomecrops,likedry-landwheatorrangecattle.
∙Farmoperatorsbyprimaryoccupation:
Accordingtothe2002CensusofAgriculture,ofthe35,939principalfarmoperatorsinWashington,farmingwasthe:
oPrimaryoccupationfor21,013
oNottheprimaryoccupationfor14,926.
Understandingtheprevioustableofsalesvs.acreagebecomesmorecompletebyalsoconsideringhowmanyofWashington’sfarmersconsideragriculturetheirprimaryoccupation.Manyofthesmallerfarmsarelocatedinareaswherelandvaluesarehigh,soitmaynotbepossibletojustifyowningthislandpurelybaseduponitsagriculturalproduction.Thesearealsoareaswherethefarm’sownerislikelytobeclosetocentersofotheremployment.Incomefromanotheroccupationmaymakeitpossibleforthisownertocontinuetoownandfarmthisland.Withoutthatsupplementalincome,theownermighthavehadnochoicebuttosellthelandfordevelopment.
∙Primefarmlands:
Whilethereareabout15.3millio
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