The AI Revolution Part 1Word文件下载.docx
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The AI Revolution Part 1Word文件下载.docx
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ThereasonthisposttookthreeweekstofinishisthatasIdugintoresearchonArtificialIntelligence,Icouldnot
believe
whatIwasreading.Ithitmeprettyquicklythatwhat’shappeningintheworldofAIisnotjustanimportanttopic,butbyfarTHEmostimportanttopicforourfuture.SoIwantedtolearnasmuchasIcouldaboutit,andonceIdidthat,IwantedtomakesureIwroteapostthatreallyexplainedthiswholesituationandwhyitmatterssomuch.Notshockingly,thatbecameoutrageouslylong,soIbrokeitintotwoparts.ThisisPart1.
_______________
WeareontheedgeofchangecomparabletotheriseofhumanlifeonEarth.
—VernorVinge
Whatdoesitfeelliketostandhere?
Itseemslikeaprettyintenseplacetobestanding—butthenyouhavetoremembersomethingaboutwhatit’sliketostandonatimegraph:
youcan’tseewhat’stoyourright.Sohere’showitactuallyfeelstostandthere:
Whichprobablyfeelsprettynormal…
TheFarFuture—ComingSoon
Imaginetakingatimemachinebackto1750—atimewhentheworldwasinapermanentpoweroutage,long-distancecommunicationmeanteitheryellingloudlyorfiringacannonintheair,andalltransportationranonhay.Whenyougetthere,youretrieveadude,bringhimto2015,andthenwalkhimaroundandwatchhimreacttoeverything.It’simpossibleforustounderstandwhatitwouldbelikeforhimtoseeshinycapsulesracingbyonahighway,talktopeoplewhohadbeenontheothersideoftheoceanearlierintheday,watchsportsthatwerebeingplayed1,000milesaway,hearamusicalperformancethathappened50yearsago,andplaywithmymagicalwizardrectanglethathecouldusetocaptureareal-lifeimageorrecordalivingmoment,generateamapwithaparanormalmovingbluedotthatshowshimwhereheis,lookatsomeone’sfaceandchatwiththemeventhoughthey’reontheothersideofthecountry,andworldsofotherinconceivablesorcery.ThisisallbeforeyoushowhimtheinternetorexplainthingsliketheInternationalSpaceStation,theLargeHadronCollider,nuclearweapons,orgeneralrelativity.
Thisexperienceforhimwouldn’tbesurprisingorshockingorevenmind-blowing—thosewordsaren’tbigenough.Hemightactuallydie.
Buthere’stheinterestingthing—ifhethenwentbackto1750andgotjealousthatwegottoseehisreactionanddecidedhewantedtotrythesamething,he’dtakethetimemachineandgobackthesamedistance,getsomeonefromaroundtheyear1500,bringhimto1750,andshowhimeverything.Andthe1500guywouldbeshockedbyalotofthings—buthewouldn’tdie.Itwouldbe
far
lessofaninsaneexperienceforhim,becausewhile1500and1750wereverydifferent,theywere
much
lessdifferentthan1750to2015.The1500guywouldlearnsomemind-bendingshitaboutspaceandphysics,he’dbeimpressedwithhowcommittedEuropeturnedouttobewiththatnewimperialismfad,andhe’dhavetodosomemajorrevisionsofhisworldmapconception.Butwatchingeverydaylifegobyin1750—transportation,communication,etc.—definitelywouldn’tmakehimdie.
No,inorderforthe1750guytohaveasmuchfunaswehadwithhim,he’dhavetogomuchfartherback—maybeallthewaybacktoabout12,000BC,beforetheFirstAgriculturalRevolutiongaverisetothefirstcitiesandtotheconceptofcivilization.Ifsomeonefromapurelyhunter-gathererworld—fromatimewhenhumanswere,moreorless,justanotheranimalspecies—sawthevasthumanempiresof1750withtheirtoweringchurches,theirocean-crossingships,theirconceptofbeing“inside,”andtheirenormousmountainofcollective,accumulatedhumanknowledgeanddiscovery—he’dlikelydie.
Andthenwhatif,afterdying,
he
gotjealousandwantedtodothesamething.Ifhewentback12,000yearsto24,000BCandgotaguyandbroughthimto12,000BC,he’dshowtheguyeverythingandtheguywouldbelike,“Okaywhat’syourpointwhocares.”Forthe12,000BCguytohavethesamefun,he’dhavetogobackover100,000yearsandgetsomeonehecouldshowfireandlanguagetoforthefirsttime.
Inorderforsomeonetobetransportedintothefutureanddiefromthelevelofshockthey’dexperience,theyhavetogoenoughyearsaheadthata“dielevelofprogress,”oraDieProgressUnit(DPU)hasbeenachieved.SoaDPUtookover100,000yearsinhunter-gatherertimes,butatthepost-AgriculturalRevolutionrate,itonlytookabout12,000years.Thepost-IndustrialRevolutionworldhasmovedsoquicklythata1750persononlyneedstogoforwardacouplehundredyearsforaDPUtohavehappened.
Thispattern—humanprogressmovingquickerandquickerastimegoeson—iswhatfuturistRayKurzweilcallshumanhistory’sLawofAcceleratingReturns.Thishappensbecausemoreadvancedsocietieshavetheabilitytoprogressatafaster
rate
thanlessadvancedsocieties—because
they’remoreadvanced.19thcenturyhumanityknewmoreandhadbettertechnologythan15thcenturyhumanity,soit’snosurprisethathumanitymadefarmoreadvancesinthe19thcenturythaninthe15thcentury—15thcenturyhumanitywasnomatchfor19thcenturyhumanity.11←openthese
Thisworksonsmallerscalestoo.Themovie
BacktotheFuture
cameoutin1985,and“thepast”tookplacein1955.Inthemovie,whenMichaelJ.Foxwentbackto1955,hewascaughtoff-guardbythenewnessofTVs,thepricesofsoda,thelackofloveforshrillelectricguitar,andthevariationinslang.Itwasadifferentworld,yes—butifthemovieweremadetodayandthepasttookplacein1985,themoviecouldhavehad
morefunwith
biggerdifferences.Thecharacterwouldbeinatimebeforepersonalcomputers,internet,orcellphones—today’sMartyMcFly,ateenagerborninthelate90s,wouldbemuchmoreoutofplacein1985thanthemovie’sMartyMcFlywasin1955.
Thisisforthesamereasonwejustdiscussed—theLawofAcceleratingReturns.Theaveragerateofadvancementbetween1985and2015washigherthantheratebetween1955and1985—becausetheformerwasamoreadvancedworld—somuchmorechangehappenedinthemostrecent30yearsthanintheprior30.
So—advancesaregettingbiggerandbiggerandhappeningmoreandmorequickly.Thissuggestssomeprettyintensethingsaboutourfuture,right?
Kurzweilsuggeststhattheprogressoftheentire20thcenturywouldhavebeenachievedinonly20yearsattherateofadvancementintheyear2000—inotherwords,by2000,therateofprogresswasfivetimesfasterthanthe
average
rateofprogressduringthe20thcentury.Hebelievesanother20thcentury’sworthofprogresshappenedbetween2000and2014andthat
another
20thcentury’sworthofprogresswillhappenby2021,inonlysevenyears.Acoupledecadeslater,hebelievesa20thcentury’sworthofprogresswillhappenmultipletimesinthesameyear,andevenlater,inlessthanonemonth.Allinall,becauseoftheLawofAcceleratingReturns,Kurzweilbelievesthatthe21stcenturywillachieve
1,000times
theprogressofthe20thcentury.2
IfKurzweilandotherswhoagreewithhimarecorrect,thenwemaybeasblownawayby2030asour1750guywasby2015—i.e.thenextDPUmightonlytakeacoupledecades—andtheworldin2050mightbe
so
vastlydifferentthantoday’sworldthatwewouldbarelyrecognizeit.
Thisisn’tsciencefiction.It’swhatmanyscientistssmarterandmoreknowledgeablethanyouorIfirmlybelieve—andifyoulookathistory,it’swhatweshouldlogicallypredict.
Sothenwhy,whenyouhearmesaysomethinglike“theworld35yearsfromnowmightbetotallyunrecognizable,”areyouthinking,“Cool….butnahhhhhhh”?
Threereasonswe’reskepticalofoutlandishforecastsofthefuture:
1)Whenitcomestohistory,wethinkinstraightlines.
Whenweimaginetheprogressofthenext30years,welookbacktotheprogressoftheprevious30asanindicatorofhowmuchwilllikelyhappen.Whenwethinkabouttheextenttowhichtheworldwillchangeinthe21stcentury,wejusttakethe20thcenturyprogressandaddittotheyear2000.Thiswasthesamemistakeour1750guymadewhenhegotsomeonefrom1500andexpectedtoblowhismindasmuchashisownwasblowngoingthesamedistanceahead.It’smostintuitiveforustothink
linearly,
whenweshouldbethinkingexponentially.Ifsomeoneisbeingmorecleveraboutit,theymightpredicttheadvancesofthenext30yearsnotbylookingattheprevious30years,butbytakingthe
current
rateofprogressandjudgingbasedonthat.They’dbemoreaccurate,butstillwayoff.Inordertothinkaboutthefuturecorrectly,youneedtoimaginethingsmovingata
muchfasterrate
thanthey’removingnow.
2)Thetrajectoryofveryrecenthistoryoftentellsadistortedstory.
First,evenasteepexponentialcurveseemslinearwhenyouonlylookatatinysliceofit,thesamewayifyoulookatalittlesegmentofahugecircleupclose,itlooksalmostlikeastraightline.Second,exponentialgrowthisn’ttotallysmoothanduniform.Kurzweilexplainsthatprogresshappensin“S-curves”:
AnSiscreatedbythewaveofprogresswhenanewparadigmsweepstheworld.Thecurvegoesthroughthreephases:
1.Slowgrowth(theearlyphaseofexponentialgrowth)
2.Rapidgrowth(thelate,explosivephaseofexponentialgrowth)
3.Alevelingoffastheparticularparadigmmatures3
Ifyoulookonlyatveryrecenthistory,thepartoftheS-curveyou’reonatthemomentcanobscureyourperceptionofhowfastthingsareadvancing.Thechunkoftimebetween1995and2007sawtheexplosionoftheinternet,theintroductionofMicrosoft,Google,andFacebookintothepublicconsciousness,thebirthofsocialnetworking,andtheintro
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