保险学原理.docx
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保险学原理.docx
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保险学原理
保险学原理
双语教程
Chapter1IntroductiontoRisk
ChapterObjects
1、Explainthreewaystocategorizerisk.
2、Listthecomponentsofanentity’scostofrisk
3、Giveseveralexamplesofrisksinvolvingproperty,liability,life,health,lossofincome,andfinanciallosses
4、Distinguishbetweenchanceoflossanddegreeofrisk
5、Giveexamplesofthreetypesofhazards
6、Identifythedifferencebetweenhazardsandperils
7、Explaintheevolvingconceptofintegratedriskmanagement
8、Explainthefourstepsintheriskmanagementprocess
Introduction
Riskregardingthepossibilityoflosscanbeespeciallyproblematic
Ifalossiscertaintooccur
Itmaybeplannedforinadvanceandtreatedasadefinite,knownexpense
Whenthereisuncertaintyabouttheoccurrenceofaloss
Riskbecomesanimportantproblem
Risk,whichisoftenusedtomeanuncertainty,createsbothproblemsandopportunitiesforbusinessesandindividualsinnearlyeverywalkoflifeexecutives,employees,investors,students,householders,travelers,andfarmersallconfrontriskanddealwithitinvariousways.Sometimesaparticularriskisconsciouslyanalyzedandmanaged;othertimesriskissimplyignored,perhapsoutoflackofknowledgeofitsconsequences.
TheBurdenofRisk
Somerisksinvolveonlythepossibilityofloss
Riskssurroundingpotentiallossescreatesignificanteconomicburdensforbusinesses,government,andindividuals
Billionsofdollarsarespenteachyeartofinancepotentiallosses
Butwhenlossesarenotplannedforinadvancetheymaycostevenmore
Riskoflossmaydeprivesocietyofservicesjudgedtobetoorisky
Forinstance,withoutmalpracticeinsurancemanyphysicianswouldrefusetopracticemedicine
TheBurdenofRisk
Businessesmaytrytoeitheravoidriskoflossortoreduceitsnegativeconsequences
Anentity’scostofriskisthesumof
Expensesofstrategiestofinancepotentiallosses
Thecostofunreimbursedlosses
Outlaystoreducerisks
Opportunitycostofactivitiesforgoneduetoriskconsiderations
Definition:
RiskP13
Thetermsriskanduncertaintyhavebeenusedinterchangeably.
Thisbookdealsprimarilywiththetypeofuncertaintyinwhichthepossibleoutcomesareeither“loss”or“noloss,”ratherthanwithuncertaintiesthatalsopresenttheopportunityforprofit.
(FIGURE1-1TypesofRisk)
Purevs.SpeculativeRisk
Pureriskexistswhenthereisuncertaintyastowhetherlosswilloccur
Nopossibilityofgainispresentedonlythepotentialforloss
Speculativeriskexistswhenthereisuncertaintyaboutaneventthatcanproduceeitheraprofitoraloss
Bothpureandspeculativerisksmaybepresentinsomesituations
Subjectivevs.ObjectiveRisk
Subjectiveriskreferstothementalstateofanindividualwhoexperiencesdoubtorworryastotheoutcomeofagivenevent
Itisessentiallythepsychologicaluncertaintythatarisesfromanindividual’smentalattitudeorstateofmind
Objectiveriskdiffersfromsubjectiveriskinthesensethatitismorepreciselyobservableandthereforemeasurable
Itistheprobablevariationofactualfromexpectedexperience
StaticRisksVsDynamicRisks
Staticrisks,whichcanbeeitherpureorspeculative,stemfromandunchangingsocietythatisinastableequilibrium.
Examplesofpurestaticrisksincludetheuncertaintiesduetosuchrandomeventsaslightning,windstorms,anddeath.
Speculativestaticrisks:
businessundertakingsinastableeconomy
Dynamicrisksareproducesbecauseofchangesinsociety.
Examples:
increasinglycomplextechnology,andchangingattitudesoflegislaturesandcourtsaboutavarietyofissues.
SourcesofRisk
Propertyrisks
Riskthatpropertymaybedamaged,destroyedorstolen
Forexample,lightning,tornadoes,hurricanes,explosions,riots,collisions,fallingobjects,floods,earthquakes,freezing,etc.
Liabilityrisks
Legaljudgmentsmayresultinpaymentsmadetocompensateinjuredpartiesaswellastopunishthoseresponsiblefortheinjuries
Eveniftheindividualisabsolvedofliabilitytheexpensesinvolvedinthedefensemaybesubstantial
Allindividualswhoownoruserealpropertyaresusceptibletoliabilitylossesifothersareinjuredontheirpremises
SourcesofRisk
Lifeandhealthandlossofincomerisks
Thepossibilityoftheuntimelydeathofastarsalesperson
Thepotentialdeathofaparentwithyoungchildren
Employeeswhobecomeillorinjuredinaccidents
Financialrisk
Includecreditrisk,foreignexchangerisk,commodityrisk,andinterestraterisk
Theserisksmustbeidentifiedandassessedinorderforthefirmtoachieveitsbusinessgoals
MeasurementofRisk
Chanceofloss(风险频率)
Thelongtermchanceofoccurrence,orrelativefrequencyofloss
Meaningfulonlywhenappliedtothechanceoflossoccurringamongalargenumberofpossibleofevents
Expressedastheratioofthenumberoflossesthatarelikelytooccurcomparedtothelargernumberofpossiblelossesinagivengroup
Hazards(风险因素)
Conditionsthatexistwhicheitherincreasethechanceofalossforaparticularperilortendtomakethelossmoresevereoncetheperilhasoccurred
Peril(风险事故)
Specificcontingencythatmaycausealoss
Loss(损害):
directlossandindirectloss
Hazards
Physicalhazard(实质风险)
Aconditionstemmingfromthematerialcharacteristicsofanobject
Anicystreetmakestheoccurrenceofcollisionmorelikelytooccur
Theicystreetisthehazardandthecollisionistheperil
Moralhazard(道德风险)
Stemsfromanindividual’smentalattitude
Associatedwithintentionalactionsdesignedeithertocausealossortoincreaseitsseverity
Alsodescribesthechangeinattitudethatcanoccurwheninsuranceisavailabletopayforloss
Suchasthetendencyforindividualstoconsumemorehealthcareifthecostsarecoveredbyinsurance
Moralehazard(心理风险)
Thementalattitudeofacarelessoraccident-proneperson
DegreeofRisk(风险程度)
Ifalosshasalreadyoccurredtheprobablevariationofactualfromexpectedlossesiszero
Thereforethedegreeofriskiszero
Ifitisimpossibleforlosstooccurtheprobablevariationisalsozero
Inmeasuringthedegreeofrisk,resultsaremeaningfulonlyintermsofagrouplargeenoughtoanalyzestatistically
Managementofrisk
Riskmanagement
Processusedtosystematicallymanageriskexposures
Integratedriskmanagementandenterpriseriskmanagement
Intenttomanageallformsofrisk,regardlessoftype
Manybusinesseshavespecialdepartmentschargedwithoverseeingthefirm’sriskmanagementactivities
Theheadofsuchadepartmentofteniscalledariskmanager(CRO).
Somefirmshaveformedriskmanagementcommittees
Somefirmshavecreatedthepositionofchiefriskofficertocoordinatethefirm’sriskmanagementactivities
RiskManagementProcess
Identifyrisks
Evaluaterisks
Selectriskmanagementtechniques
Implementandreviewdecisions
Summary:
1.Riskisdefinedasuncertaintyconcerningloss.
2.Riskcreatesaneconomicburdenforsocietybyraisingthecostofcertaingoodsandservicesandeliminatingtheprovisionofothers.
3.Thecostofriskincludesoutlaystoreducerisks,theopportunitycostofactivitiesforgoneduetoriskconsiderations,expensesofstrategiestofinancedpotentiallosses,andthecostofunreimbursedlosses.
4.Pureriskexistswhenthereisuncertaintyastowhetherlosswilloccur.Speculativeriskexistswhenthereisuncertaintyaboutandeventthatcouldproduceeitheraprofitoraloss.
5.Staticrisksarepresentinanunchanging,stablesociety.Dynamicrisksareproducedbychangesinsociety.
6.Subjectiveriskreferstothementalstateofanindividual.Objectiverisk,whichismeasurable,istheprobablevariationofactualfromexpectedexperience.
7.Therearemanysourcesofrisk.Onewayofclassifyingthemisinrelationtoproperty,liability,life,health,lossofincome,andfinancialexposures.
8.Chanceoflossisthelong-termrelativefrequencyofalossduetoaparticularperil,orcauseofloss.Thedegreeofriskistherelativevariationofactualfromexpectedlosses.
9.Ahazardisaconditionthatincreasesthechanceoflossduetoaperil,.Hazardscanariseoutofbothphysicalconditionsandthementalattitudesofindividuals.
10.Riskmanagementistheprocessusedtosystematicallymanageexposurestopurerisk.Thefourstepsintheprocessare
Identifyrisks
Evaluaterisks
Selectriskmanagementtechniques
Implementandreviewdecisions
QUESTIONSFORREVIEWANDDISCUSSION
1.Definerisk.Listsomewaysinwhichriskcreatesaneconomicburdenforsociety.
2.Differentiatebetweenthefollowingtypesofrisk:
a.purevs.speculative.b.staticvsdynamic,andc.subjectivevsobjective.
3.Differentiatebetweenaperilandahazardandgiveanexampleofeach.
4.Classifyeachofthefollowinghazardsasphysical,morale,ormoral.
a.acarelessdriver
b.apersonwhosuffersanexaggeratedcaseofwhiplashfollowingandautomobileaccident
c.aworkerwhooccasionallyleavesadangerousmachineunattendedtotalkwithfriends
d.anemployeewhooccasionallyembezzlesmoney
e.icyroadconditions
Chapter2RiskIdentificationandEvaluation1
ChapterObjectives
•Explainseveralmethodsforidentifyingrisks
•Identifytheimportantelementsinriskevaluation
•Explainthreedifferentmeasuresofvariation
•Explainthreedifferentmeasuresofcentraltendency
•Discusstheconceptsofaprobabilitydistributionandexplaintheimportancetoriskmanagers
•Giveexamplesofhowriskmanagersmightusethenormal,binomial,andPoissondistributions
•Explainhowtheconceptsofriskmappingandvalueatriskareusedinanenterpris
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