通货膨胀大萧条和经济复苏外文文献翻译.docx
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通货膨胀大萧条和经济复苏外文文献翻译.docx
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通货膨胀大萧条和经济复苏外文文献翻译
通货膨胀预期和德国大萧条的复苏外文翻译2019-2020
英文
InflationexpectationsandtherecoveryfromtheGreatDepressioninGermany
VolkerDaniel,LucasSteege
Abstract
Aregimeshifttowardincreasedinflationexpectationsiscreditedwithjump-startingtherecoveryfromtheGreatDepressionintheUnitedStates.WhatroledidinflationexpectationsplayinGermanythatexperiencedasimilarlysuccessfuleconomicupturninthe1930s?
WestudyinflationexpectationsintheGermanrecoveryacrossseveralmethods:
weconductanarrativestudyofmediasources;weestimateinflationexpectationsfromafactor-augmentedvectorautoregressionmodel,realinterestrateforecasts,andquantitativenewsseries.Consistentlyacrosstheseapproaches,wedonotfindashifttoincreasedexpectedinflation.Thisrecoverywasdifferent,anditscauseslieelsewhere.
Keywords:
Inflationexpectations,GreatDepression,Inflationforecasting,Regimechange,Germany,Narrativeevidence
Introduction
InflationexpectationsplayacentralroleinexplanationsfortherecoveryfromtheGreatDepressionintheUnitedStates.Centralbankersfrequentlyrefertothehistoricalprecedentforthispolicyprescription:
PresidentRooseveltmadeacrediblecommitmenttoinflatetheeconomyintheSpringof1933,whichisregardedasaregimechangethatmarksthebeginningofthesuccessfulrecoveryoftheU.S.economy(e.g. TeminandWigmore,1990,also Eggertsson, 2008).
Fig. 1 showstherecoverypathsfortheUnitedStatesandGermany.U.S.industrialproductionincreaseddramaticallyfollowingtheRooseveltregimeshiftinthesecondquarterof1933.TherecoveryinGermanythatstartedin1932proceededatroughlythesamerate,startingoffslowlyinthebeginning,butatahigherandsteadypacethereafter.Weobservesimilarpatternsforprices.AlthoughtheU.S.priceindexofindustrialfinishedgoodsjumpedupwardalongwithindustrialproduction,theGermanpriceindexincreasedatamuchslowerpace.
Inthispaper,weinvestigatewhetherashiftininflationexpectationsinitiatedtheGermanrecoveryasoccurredintheUnitedStates.Thedebateaboutthecausesforthisremarkableeconomicupturnremainsunresolved.InflationexpectationscouldbeakeyfactorintherecoveryofGermanyinthe1930sthathasnotyetbeenconsidered.Fromatheoreticalperspective,changingexpectationsregardingfutureinflationratesisacrucialdriverofproduction,consumption,andpricesinmanymacromodels.IntheNewKeynesianframework,anincreaseinexpectedinflationleadstoincreasedproductionasconsumerssubstituteconsumptionovertime,andanincreaseddemandforgoodsleadstoanincreaseininflation(Galí,2015).TotestwhetherthischannelwasoperativeduringtheinitialphasesoftheGermanrecovery,weconstructinflationexpectationsusingvariousapproaches.First,weconductanarrativeidentificationofinflationexpectationsfrommediaarticles,following Jalil andRua (2016).Thenarrativeaccountisthensupplementedwithafactor-augmentedvectorautoregression(FAVAR)model,realinterestrateforecasts,andforecastsfrominflationnewsseries.
OurcentralfindingisthatthereisnosustainedshiftininflationexpectationsinGermanyatthestartoftherecoveryfromtheGreatDepressionin1932.Althoughthenarrativestudyidentifiesoccasionalfearsofinflationonanumberofspecificdatesandevents,newspaperarticlesrevealnosustainedregimeshiftofinflationexpectations.StartingwiththeBritishexitfromthegoldstandardinSeptember1931,Germannewspapersregularlymentionedcurrencydevaluationandinflationarypoliciesasviablepolicyoptions.FearsofinflationappearedduringdiscussionsaboutanextensiveexpansionarypolicyinJanuary1932,aftertheformationofthePapengovernmentinJune1932andasaresponsetoAdolfHitler’sseizureofpowerin1933.However,accordingtothenewsaccount,noneoftheeventscausedasustainedchangeininflationexpectations.Eachtimethegeneralpublicthoughtaboutinflation,thegovernmentandReichsbankwereeagertoruleoutanyprice-increasingpolicies.Thisfindingisinlinewithwhat Straumann (2009) argueswasthecaseforseveralEuropeancountriesatthattime.OneexplanationfortheemergenceoffearsofinflationamongGermansduringtheGreatDepressionistheirexperiencewithhyperinflationin1923,apointnotedby Borchardt (1985) and Eichengreen (1992),whichlikelypreventedpoliticiansfromundertakinginflationaryprogramssimilartothoseintheU.S.
Ourtimeseriesestimatesalsoshownoindicationofasuddenregimeshiftasanexplanationfortherecovery.Uniformlyacrossapproaches,weobservethatduring1932expectedinflationratesremainednegativeandlargelyunchangedrelativeto1931.Althoughwedoobserveoccasionalevidencethatinflationexpectationschangedfromdeflationtoinflationdurin
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