从日元升值分析人民币升值对中国经济的影响.docx
- 文档编号:24262923
- 上传时间:2023-05-25
- 格式:DOCX
- 页数:21
- 大小:82.19KB
从日元升值分析人民币升值对中国经济的影响.docx
《从日元升值分析人民币升值对中国经济的影响.docx》由会员分享,可在线阅读,更多相关《从日元升值分析人民币升值对中国经济的影响.docx(21页珍藏版)》请在冰豆网上搜索。
从日元升值分析人民币升值对中国经济的影响
TheAppreciationofJapaneseYenandItsImplicationsforChineseRMB
SchoolofEnglishforInternationalBusiness
Abstract:
Sincethe1970s,Japaneseyenfinishedits20-yearhistoryoffixedexchangerateafterthewarandbeganitsappreciation.ThebackgroundandtheearlyeffectsofRMB’sappreciationareverysimilartothoseinJapan.Thisthesisanalyzesthereasonsandtheeffectsofyen’sappreciationandRMB’sappreciation,andsummarizesthesolutionsthatJapanesegovernmenthadtaken.Then,itcomparesthesimilaritiesanddifferencesofyen’sappreciationwiththoseofRMB’sappreciation.Basedontheanalysis,thisthesisputsforwardsomeconcretesuggestionsforChinesegovernmenttodealwiththebadeffectbroughtbytheRMB’sappreciation.
Keywords:
Yen’sAppreciation,RMB’sAppreciation,ExchangeRate
从日元升值分析人民币升值对中国经济的影响
国际商务英语学院英语(国际金融)072班
摘要:
自上个世纪的70年代,日元结束了其战后二十年的固定汇率历史,开始了持续的升值。
人民币升值的背景与日元升值的背景非常相似,同时人民币升值初期对中国经济的影响与日元进入升值初期对日本经济的影响也有很多相似之处。
本文分析了日元升值的原因和升值给日本带来的影响,并总结了日本采取的对策,在分析中文升值的原因及其影响,然后对比两种货币升值的相同点和不同点。
最后,根据分析,本文为中国政府提出了几个建议来应对人民币升值所带来的问题。
关键字:
日元升值,人民币升值,汇率
Contents
Abstract(inEnglish)………………………………………………………………………...….…..I
Abstract(inChinese)…………………………………………………………………..……...…...II
1.Theintroductionandtheeffectsofyen’sappreciation1
1.1.Thebackgroundofyen’sappreciation1
1.2.Thereasonsofyen’sappreciation2
1.3.TheimpactonJapan’seconomy4
1.4.Japan’ssolutions8
2.TheanalysisofRMB’sappreciation10
2.1.ThebackgroundofRMB’sappreciation10
2.2.TheimpactbroughtbyRMB’sappreciation12
3.Thecomparisonbetweenyen’sappreciationandRMB’sappreciation16
3.1.Thesimilaritiesoftheeconomicsituation16
3.2.Thedifferencesbetweenyen’sappreciationandRMB’sappreciation17
4.ThesolutionsforChina19
4.1.Adjustingindustrialstructure19
4.2.Improvingcapitalutilizationefficiency20
4.3.Stimulatingdomesticdemandandpromotingemployment20
4.4.Improvingthefinancialregulatorysystem21
5.Conclusion21
References23
Acknowledgements24
1.Theintroductionandtheeffectsofyen’sappreciation
1.1.Thebackgroundofyen’sappreciation
AftertheWorldWarII,Japanachieveditseconomicdevelopment,correctlygavefullplaytoitsadvantage,relyingontechnologytransfer,learning,imitatingandimproving.Inaddition,withthehelpofthenationalgovernment’spolicyofeffectiveinterventionandthesupportoftheUnitedStates,Japansuccessfullyhadagoodrankingamongthedevelopedcountries. Attheendof1985,thebalanceofJapaneseoverseasassetshadreached128.9billionU.S.dollars,largerthan111.8billionU.S.dollarsintheUnitedKingdom.Japanhadbecometheworld'slargestcreditornation.Atthistime,Japan'seconomygrowthratehadenteredarelativelystableperiodofdevelopment.However,duringthisperiodtheU.S.economyexperiencedarecession.BecauseforalongtimeU.S.hadcommittedtotheColdWarwiththeSovietUnion,ignoringthedevelopmentofeconomy,aswellasthepolicyoftaxcutting,highinterestrateandinhibitingthefiscalexpenditurecarriedoutbyPresidentReaganin1980,thedomesticdemandandthestrongdollarhadmadeaseriousimpedimenttoexpansionofexports.TheU.S.economyhadtofaceadoubledifficultyoftradedeficitsandfinancialdeficits.Thetradedeficitin1984hadreached109billionU.S.dollars,inwhichthetradedeficitwithJapanaccountedforabout34%.
Inthiscontext,inordertosolvetheinternationalpaymentimbalanceproblemappearedinmanycountries,onSeptember22,1985,fivefinanceministersfromtheUnitedStates,Japan,France,BritainandGermanyaswellastheCentralBankgovernorsconvenedameetinginthePlazaHotelandsignedthePlazaAccord.ThePlazaAccordwassuccessfulinreducingtheU.S.tradedeficitwithWesternEuropeannationsbutlargelyfailedtofulfillitsprimaryobjectiveofalleviatingthetradedeficitwithJapan.Thisdeficitwasduetostructuralconditionsthatwereinsensitivetomonetarypolicy,specificallytradeconditions.Theyen-dollarexchangeratechangeseachyearisshowninTable1(Fang&Wang,2003:
46).
ThetableshowsusthatafterthePlazaAccordwassigned,Japaneseyenappreciatedyearbyyear.
1.2.Thereasonsofyen’sappreciation
Japanisknownas“trading nation"foralongtime, currencyundervaluationhadanactiveeffectontheinternationaltrade.Whatisthepowerpushingforwardyen’sappreciation?
1.2.1.Powerfuleconomicstrength
Theinternalreasonforyen’sappreciationispowerfuleconomicstrength.AccordingtoBalassa–SamuelsonHypothesis,astheincreasingofeconomicidentity’sproductivity,realwagesandrealincome,therelativepriceofthenontradedproductsandthetradedproductswillrise.Thesewillputforwardtheincreaseoftherealinterestrate.AfterWorldWarII,withthe support oftheUnitedStates, Japanpromoted aseriesof politicalandeconomic systemreform. Optimizationofsystem andalargeamountof dollarsinloans ledtoaquickrestorationofthewoundsofwar intheshortterm. Uptothemid1950s,theJapan’s economyhadbeen fullyrestoredand surpassedthetoplevelbefore andduringWorldWarII. Since1956,Japan entereda newperiodofindustrialization. During1956-1973,theJapanese realGNP increasedatanannual rateof morethan10%.In thehistoryof theworldcapitalisteconomy Japanisregardedas"economicmiracle.”Japan,growinginaHighspeed,hadbecome aneconomicgiant.In1955,Japan'sGNPhadreached 17.2trillionyen, becomingthe seventh largesteconomiccountryin thecapitalistworld.In1968,Japan’sGNP hadreached86.8trillionyen,surpassing Britainandthe FederalRepublicofGermany.Japan becamethesecondlargest capitalisteconomicgiant,rankingonlyaftertheU.S. In1973,undertheinfluenceof theoilcrisis,thespeedofJapan's economicgrowthwasstillsatisfied. Upto1990, Japan's share inglobaleconomy increasedfrom9.8%in1980 to13.9%,andbecamethelargestcreditorcountry.Fromthefigures,wecanclearlyseetheJapan’seconomicgrowthanditspowerfuleconomicstrength.Aftertheeconomicgrowth,theyenhadthetendencyofappreciation.
1.2.2.The collapseof theBrettonWoodssystem and thepressurefrom theUS
ThecollapseoftheBrettonWoodssystemandthepressureoftheUnitedStatesbroughtabouttheexternalcausesofappreciationoftheyen.TheBrettonWoodssystemofmonetarymanagementestablishedtherulesforcommercialandfinancialrelationsamongtheworld'smajorindustrialstatesinthemid20thcentury.TheBrettonWoodssystemwasthefirstexampleofafullynegotiatedmonetaryorderintendedtogovernmonetaryrelationsamongindependentnation-states.
During1950to1970, theinternationalmonetarysystem isaquasi-fixedexchangerate systemdominatedbyUSdollar. In1970s,duetotheexistenceof"Triffin dilemma",thesystemfinally burst intoJamaica Systemwhichbasedon afloatingexchangerate. Japanexecutedfloatingexchangerate,andbeginitsappreciation.In thecourseof theyen's appreciation, theUnitedStates constitute animportantfactorin thepressure. Inthelate1960s, theUnitedStates sankintoacyclicaleconomic crisis.(Bahmani-Oskooee&Mirzaie,2000:
76-89) Thedollar wasovervalued. TheU.S.economyhaddeteriorated.After thecollapseof theBrettonWoodssystem,despitethe sharp depreciationofthedollar,butitstilldidnot reversethe U.S.economy. In1973, thefourthMiddleEast warbrokeout,causing theoilcrisis. Thecapitalist countriessankinto thedilemmaof"stagflation”.TheUnitedStates isnoexception. In1975,Japan tookthelead to returntoapositivegrowth, andbecamestrongerandstronger.Especially after1980s, theJapaneseeconomy continuestoflourish.Tradefrictions betweenU.S.andJapanbegantoappear duringthisperiod. Until1980, thetradebalance between JapanandtheU.S. hasreached 7.662billionU.S.dollars,accountingfor 58.9%inthetotal U.S. tradedeficit. Until1985,thesize reached 46.15billionU.S.dollars,accountingfor 39.2%(Sun,Shen,2007:
60-62).Thebudgetdeficit intheU.S.remainedveryhighandthetradedeficit was expandedyearafteryear.
Theeconomiccircles,representedbyKrugman putforwardthattheU.S.wouldcoordinatewithJapan,Germany,BritainandFrance,accordingtomacroeconomic policies. OnSeptember22,1985, thefivecountries signed "PlazaAccord"inNewYork.ThePlazaAccordpointedoutthattheinteractionofdeficitandotherfactorsmightcausethenewtradeprotectionism.Inordertodealwiththetradeunbalance,eachcountryshouldsetupharmoniouseconomicpolicies,theinterestrateagainstUSdollarshouldappreciate.TheUnitedStatesshouldfocusoncuttingdownthedeficit.JapanandGermanyshouldfocusonexpandingdomesticdemand.AndthenJapaneseyenbeganitsappreciation.
1.3.TheimpactonJapan’seconomy
Intheshortterm,yen’sappreciationmayindeedimprovethestatusofyenintheinternationalmonetarysystem.Anditmighthadanactiveeffectonstrengtheningtheindustrialstructureandtechnologicalupgrading,improvingcomprehensivenationalstrength,increasingforeigndirectinvestment,loweringimportprices,andtappingthedomesticmarketpotential.However,fromapracticalpointofview,weshouldfocusmoreonthenegativeeffectsofyen’sappreciationontheJapaneseeconomy.
1.3.1.Reductiononexports
Yen’sappreciationmayreduceJapan’scommodityexports,seriouslyaffectingthebalanceofinternationalpayments.Japanisanexport-orientedcountry,knownforitscheapgoodsintheinternationalmarket.Yen’sappreciationmeantthatthecostandpricesofJapanesegoodswouldincreasesharply,andwea
- 配套讲稿:
如PPT文件的首页显示word图标,表示该PPT已包含配套word讲稿。双击word图标可打开word文档。
- 特殊限制:
部分文档作品中含有的国旗、国徽等图片,仅作为作品整体效果示例展示,禁止商用。设计者仅对作品中独创性部分享有著作权。
- 关 键 词:
- 日元 升值 分析 人民币 中国经济 影响