25 global consumer trends.docx
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25 global consumer trends.docx
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25globalconsumertrends
25GlobalConsumerTrends2008:
BacktoBasics–it’sStilltheOldEconomyinaCoolClimate
EuromonitorInternational:
StrategyBriefing
June2008
ListofContentsandTables
Foreword1
theBigPicture1
ExecutiveSummary1
MacroDriversandKeyTrends1
ConsumerTrends2
OpportunitiesandChallengesof20083
Summary1OpportunitiesandChallengesof20083
MajorMarkets5
ImplicationsforBrandsandMarketers7
FutureOutlook7
MacroDrivers8
Politics8
Economy8
Chart1MajorMarketsGDPatPurchasingPowerParity20079
Chart2SavingsRatio:
Savingsas%ofIncomeinMajorMarkets200710
Chart3RealGDPGrowth(%)ActualandForecast1980-201212
Society14
Technology15
KeyTrendsandDevelopments16
ClimateChangeIsHereToStay16
WeContinueToAge16
Chart4WorldPopulationbyRegion(1January2007)17
ContinueToGetFatter17
Table1ObesityLevels–ProportionWithBMI30+byRegion1977-201718
ToGetRicher18
Chart5AverageAnnualDisposableIncome1997/200718
andLiveinAMoreCrowdedWorld19
Chart6PopulationDensitybyRegion200719
GlobalisationWillContinue20
OverviewofConsumerTrends20
Chart7GlobalConsumerTrendsandThemes200821
Identity,Self-expressionandHappiness21
LegislatingHappiness21
Table2HowMuchPeopleEnjoyTheirLifeasaWhole(TopandBottomCountries),Average1995-200522
WhentheFutureLooksBad,LookBack–theComfortofNostalgia22
FakingIt23
ReturnofRarity24
It’sAllTooComplex–theRiseofSimplicity24
theRiseof(popular)Connoisseurship24
Chart8Households(%)WithanAnnualIncomeofUS$5,000andUS$15,000byMajorMarket200726
Belonging26
NeedyWorld26
SocialNetworkingContinuesToGainGround27
....andSoStatusBecomesAnIssue27
MakingNetworksPay?
28
NetworkEtiquette28
MakeItYourself28
Table3WorldBrandsandCompanies200729
Work,RestandPlay30
WealthierButNotBetterOff30
Chart9GrowthinGDPvsGrowthinAverageAnnualIncomebyMajorMarket(%CAGR)2003/200730
ManagingMoneyandExpectations–SurvivalandHome31
Chart10HomeTenureinMajorMarkets200731
Chart11HomeOwners–WithandWithoutMortgagesinMajorMarkets200733
MakingEndsMeet–FoodOrFun33
Chart12ConsumerExpenditureonFoodandHousing(as%ofTotalConsumerExpenditure)byMajorMarket200734
Chart13ConsumerExpenditureonLeisureandCommunicationsbyMajorMarket200735
Unemployment36
Chart14GrowthinNumberofUnemployedinMajorMarkets2007/200837
NewWaysofSpendingMore,Faster,MoreOften,Now37
Chart15FinancialCardsbyFunctioninMajorMarkets200738
Chart16NumberofFinancialCardsperHouseholdinMajorMarkets200738
Chart17ContactandContactlessSmartCardsinMajorMarkets200739
HealthandWellbeing40
ExpandingWaistlines40
Chart18CalorieConsumptionvsObesityLevelsinMajorMarkets200740
Table4ConsumptionofFoodGroupsvsObesityinMajorMarkets200741
PayingforHealth42
Table5SpendingonHealthbySectorinMajorMarkets200742
HealthInequalities42
Chart19GapBetweenLifeExpectancyandHealthyLifeExpectancyinMajorMarkets200642
HeartsandMinds(andHipsandKnees)43
Chart20WorldValueSalesofVitaminsandDietarySupplements(US$million)200743
GutFeeling44
Chart21WorldValueSalesofProbiotics(US$million)200745
FoodPlusandMinus45
ConnectednessThroughTechnology46
It’sNotNewTech,TechnologyIsNormal46
IdentityAnxiety–WhoIsBeingMeToday?
46
My(mobile)PhoneIsMyHome46
Chart22PerCapitaOwnershipofMobilePhonesinMajorMarkets200747
theNewMtv–TelevisiononYourMobile49
Life’sAGameandOtherWorlds49
GenerationalDifferences50
MagicalTechnology50
ConsumerTrendsintheMainMarkets51
Brazil51
Chart23Brazil:
EconomicOutlook–GDPandGDPGrowth2008-201251
Table6Brazil:
HouseholdEconomy(US$perHousehold)2008-201252
Table7Brazil:
TechnologyatHome–Forecast2008-201252
China52
Chart24China:
EconomicOutlook–GDPandGDPGrowth2008-201253
Table8China:
HouseholdEconomy(US$perHousehold)2008-201254
Table9China:
TechnologyatHome–Forecast2008-201254
France55
Chart25France:
EconomicOutlook–GDPandGDPGrowth2008-201255
Table10France:
HouseholdEconomy(US$perHousehold)2008-201256
Table11France:
TechnologyatHome–Forecast2008-201256
Germany56
Chart26Germany:
EconomicOutlook–GDPandGDPGrowth2008-201257
Table12Germany:
HouseholdEconomy(US$perHousehold)2008-201257
Table13Germany:
TechnologyatHome–Forecast2008-201258
India58
Chart27India:
EconomicOutlook–GDPandGDPGrowth2008-201258
Table14India:
HouseholdEconomy(US$perHousehold)2008-201259
Table15India:
TechnologyatHome–Forecast2008-201260
Japan60
Chart28Japan:
EconomicOutlook–GDPandGDPGrowth2008-201260
Table16Japan:
HouseholdEconomy(US$perHousehold)2008-201261
Table17Japan:
TechnologyatHome–Forecast2008-201262
Russia62
Chart29Russia:
EconomicOutlook–GDPandGDPGrowth2008-201262
Table18Russia:
NumberofMillionaires/BillionairesinRussia2002-200763
Table19Russia:
HouseholdEconomy(US$perHousehold)2008-201263
Table20Russia:
TechnologyatHome–Forecast2008-201264
UK64
Chart30UK:
EconomicOutlook–GDPandGDPGrowth2008-201264
Table21UK:
HouseholdEconomy(US$perHousehold)2008-201265
Table22UK:
TechnologyatHome–Forecast2008-201265
US66
Chart31US:
EconomicOutlook–GDPandGDPGrowth2008-201266
Table23US:
HouseholdEconomy(US$perHousehold)2008-201267
Table24US:
TechnologyatHome–Forecast2008-201268
ImplicationsofTheseConsumerTrendsforBrandsandMarketing68
thePowerofthePeerGroup68
AdvertisingandthePeerGroup69
WhatIsItYouAreReallyBuying70
AdvertisingObesity71
LanguageMatters–FromStickyToMagnetic;ViralToGossip71
theRoleofDesign72
TryBeforeYouBuy72
FutureOutlook72
What’sNotChanging72
TrendsToWatch73
Chart32BreakdownofConsumerExpenditure200774
Table25GrowthinSpendingonReadyMeals/PreparedSalads–ActualandForecast2003/2007and2008/201274
Table26GrowthinSpendingonLagerbyPricePlatform–ActualandForecast2003/2007and2008/201275
FutureScenarios75
Chart33FutureScenarios75
25GlobalConsumerTrends2008:
BackToBasics–It’sStilltheOldEconomyinACoolClimate
Foreword
theBigPicture
Themoodfor2008isverydifferenttothatof2007.Althoughmanyoftheissuesaffectingtheyear2008havebeenaroundforsometime,ayearagothemoodwaspositive.Thosewarningoffutureeconomicstormswereregardedasdoomsayers.Now,themoodissomewherebetweenanxiousandgloomy.Stockmarketsricochetupanddownfeverishlyonnewsthatappearstooutsiderstobelittlemorethanrumourandgossip.Wewerewarnedthatthingswereabouttochange,butcompanies,consumersandgovernmentscarriedonborrowingandspendingasusual.TheanxietiesareparticularlystrongintheUS,wherethecrisisisripplingitswayoutofthebankingeconomyandintotherealeconomy,whichisnowsaidtobeinrecession.
Theforecastfor2008variesenormouslyaroundtheworld.TheboomingeconomiesofSoutheastAsiaandEasternEuropecontinuetolookrobust.InthematureeconomiesofEuropeandtheUS,thingsarelookingratherlessoptimistic.MuchoftheeconomicwellbeingofthepastdecadehasbeendependentonAmericanconsumerspending.ThefallofthedollarandtheapparentdeclineinspendingintheUSmayyetimpacttherestoftheworld.
Lastyear’slookatthefutureconcentratedonwhatwashappeninginpeople’slives,whatmatteredmostandwherechangeswereemerging.Thesethemescontinuetohaveresonance,butasmoneyisthedriverofmostbehaviour,thisyearthereisagreaterconcentrationontheeconomyand“myeconomy”–howpeoplemanagetheirmoneyandwheretheychoosetospendit.
Thefutureformarketinglooksequallyuncertain.Todatetherehasbeenlittlesignofaslowdowninmarketingexpenditure.TheBeijingOlympicswillprovideasummerbonusandtheUSpresidentialelectionsareexpectedtokeeptheUSadvertisingeconomybuoyant.
Backtobasics–it’salwaystheeconomy
Theonlycertainthingseemstobethatno-oneisverycertainaboutwhatwillhappen.Uncertaintyisbadforbusinessandourinterconnectedworldishugelydependentonconfidence.Ifwecollectivelyloseournervethenwewillmakeournightmarescometrue.Evenifthereisrecession,itshouldberememberedthatsomepeoplegetrichinrecessionarytimes.Thetrickistounderstandwherevaluereallylies–itwillbeareaswherethevalueisnotgreatenoughthatsuffermost.
Itlookslikelytobeareturntobasics–economicsareintheascendant.ThenewInterneteconomycrumbledontheoldmathsofprofitandlossin2001,andtheneweconomyoffinancialproductsappearstobecrumblinginmuchthesameway.Vauntedasanewwaytofinance,thosecomplexfinancialproductsincreasinglylookmorelikepyramidselling,andnowthoseatthebottomofthepyramidhavetopayup.
No-oneseemssurewhethertherewillbeaslowdownorarecession,andfewseemconfidentthatthelessonsofthepastwillhelptonavigatethecurrentsituation.
ExecutiveSummary
MacroDriversandKeyTrends
∙TherewillbepresidentialelectionsintheUSinNovember2008.RecentelectionsinRussiahaveseenachangeofface,withtheelectionofDmitryMedvedevasPresident,whowilltakeofficeinMay.Littlemorethanachangeoffaceisexpected,withVladimirPutinstillinvolved.In2007,FranceelectedNicolasSarkozy,whowaselectedonaplatformofchange.TheBeijingOlympicsisanticipatedtodrawthe
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