商务决策与分析大题.docx
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商务决策与分析大题.docx
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商务决策与分析大题
BusinessDecisionAnalysis
ReviewSections-SolveProblem
Chapter02
1.Aclasscontains30students.Tenarefemale(F)andU.S.citizens(U);12aremale(M)andU.S.citizens;6arefemaleandnon-U.S.citizens(N);2aremaleandnon-U.S.citizens.Anameisrandomlyselectedfromtheclassrosteranditisfemale.WhatistheprobabilitythatthestudentisaU.S.citizen?
2.Yourprofessortellsyouthatifyouscorean85orbetteronyourmidtermexam,thenyouhavea90%chanceofgettinganAforthecourse.Youthinkyouhaveonlya50%chanceofscoring85orbetter.Findtheprobabilitythatbothyourscoreis85orbetterandyoureceiveanAinthecourse.
3.Aninstructoristeachingtwosections(classes)ofcalculus.Eachclasshas24students,andonthesurface,bothclassesappearidentical.Oneclass,however,consistsofstudentswhohavealltakencalculusinhighschool.Theinstructorhasnoideawhichclassiswhich.SheknowsthattheprobabilityofatleasthalftheclassgettingAsonthefirstexamisonly25%inanaverageclass,but50%inaclasswithmoremathbackground.Asectionisselectedatrandomandquizzed.MorethanhalftheclassreceivedAs.Now,whatistherevisedprobabilitythattheclasswastheadvancedone?
Chapter03
4.MariaRojasisconsideringthepossibilityofopeningasmalldressshoponFairbanksAvenue,afewblocksfromtheuniversity.Shehaslocatedagoodmallthatattractsstudents.Heroptionsaretoopenasmallshop,amedium-sizedshop,ornoshopatall.Themarketforadressshopcanbegood,average,orbad.Theprobabilitiesforthesethreepossibilitiesare0.2foragoodmarket,0.5foranaveragemarket,and0.3forabadmarket.Thenetprofitorlossforthemedium-sizedandsmallshopsforthevariousmarketconditionsaregiveninthefollowingtable.Buildingnoshopatallyieldsnolossandnogain.
Alternative
GoodMarket($)
AverageMarket($)
BadMarket($)
SmallShop
75,000
25,000
-40,000
Medium-sizedShop
100,000
35,000
-60,000
NoShop
0
0
0
(a)Whatdoyourecommend?
(b)CalculatetheEVPI.
(c)Developtheopportunitylosstableforthissituation.WhatdecisionswouldbemadeusingtheminimaxregretcriterionandtheminimumEOLcriterion?
5.TheABCCo.isconsideringanewconsumerproduct.Theybelievethereisaprobabilityof0.4thattheXYZCo.willcomeoutwithacompetitiveproduct.IfABCaddsanassemblylinefortheproductandXYZdoesnotfollowwithacompetitiveproduct,theirexpectedprofitis$40,000;iftheyaddanassemblylineandXYZdoesfollow,theystillexpecta$10,000profit.IfABCaddsanewplantadditionandXYZdoesnotproduceacompetitiveproduct,theyexpectaprofitof$600,000;ifXYZdoescompeteforthismarket,ABCexpectsalossof$100,000.
(a)DeterminetheEMVofeachdecision.
(b)DeterminetheEOLofeachdecision.
(c)Comparetheresultsof(a)and(b).
(d)CalculatetheEVPI.
6.BarbourElectricisconsideringtheintroductionofanewproduct.Thisproductcanbeproducedinoneofseveralways:
(a)usingthepresentassemblylineatacostof$25perunit,(b)usingthecurrentassemblylineafterithasbeenoverhauled(atacostof$10,000)withacostof$22perunit;and(c)onanentirelynewassemblyline(costing$30,000)designedespeciallyforthenewproductwithaperunitcostof$20.Barbourisworried,however,abouttheimpactofcompetition.Ifnocompetitionoccurs,theyexpecttosell15,000unitsthefirstyear.Withcompetition,thenumberofunitssoldisexpectedtodropto9,000.Atthemoment,theirbestestimateisthatthereisa40%chanceofcompetition.Theyhavedecidedtomaketheirdecisionbasedonthefirstyearsales.
(a)Developthedecisiontable(EMV).
(b)Developadecisiontable(EOL).
(c)Whatshouldtheydo?
7.MonicaBritthasenjoyedsailingsmallboatssinceshewas7yearsold,whenhermotherstartedsailingwithher.Today,Monicaisconsideringthepossibilityofstartingacompanytoproducesmallsail-boatsfortherecreationalmarket.Unlikeothermass-producedsailboats,however,theseboatswillbemadespecificallyforchildrenbetweentheagesof10and15.Theboatswillbeofthehighestqualityandextremelystable,andthesailsizewillbereducedtopreventproblemsofcapsizing.Herbasicdecisioniswhethertobuildalargemanufacturingfacility,asmallmanufacturingfacility,ornofacilityatall.Withafavorablemarket,Monicacanexpecttomake$90,000fromthelargefacilityor$60,000fromthesmallerfacility.Ifthemarketisunfavorable,however,Monicaestimatesthatshewouldlose$30,000withalargefacility,andshewouldloseonly$20,000withthesmallfacility.Becauseoftheexpenseinvolvedindevelopingtheinitialmoldsandacquiringthenecessaryequipmenttoproducefiberglasssailboatsforyoungchildren,Monicahasdecidedtoconductapilotstudytomakesurethatthemarketforthesailboatswillbeadequate.Sheestimatesthatthepilotstudywillcosther$10,000.Furthermore,thepilotstudycanbeeitherfavorableorunfavorable.Monicaestimatesthattheprobabilityofafavorablemarketgivenafavorablepilotstudyis0.8.Theprobabilityofanunfavorablemarketgivenanunfavorablepilotstudyresultisestimatedtobe0.9.Monicafeelsthatthereisa0.65chancethatthepilotstudywillbefavorable.Ofcourse,Monicacouldbypassthepilotstudyandsimplymakethedecisionastowhethertobuildalargeplant,smallplant,ornofacilityatall.Withoutdoinganytestinginapilotstudy,sheestimatesthattheprobabilityofafavor-ablemarketis0.6.Whatdoyourecommend?
ComputetheEVSI.
Chapter04
8.JudithThompsonrunsafloristshopontheGulfCoastofTexas,specializinginfloralarrangementsforweddingsandotherspecialevents.Sheadvertisesweeklyinthelocalnewspapersandisconsideringin-creasingheradvertisingbudget.Beforedoingso,shedecidestoevaluatethepasteffectivenessoftheseads.Fiveweeksaresampled,andtheadvertisingdollarsandsalesvolumeforeachoftheseisshowninthefollowingtable.DeveloparegressionequationthatwouldhelpJudithevaluateheradvertising.Findthecoefficientofdeterminationforthismodel.
Sales($1,000)
Advertising($100)
11
5
6
3
10
7
6
2
12
8
9.BobWhiteisconductingresearchonmonthlyexpensesformedicalcare,includingover-the-countermedicine.Hisdependentvariableismonthlyexpensesformedicalcarewhilehisindependentvariableisnumberoffamilymembers.BelowishisExceloutput.
(a)Whatisthepredictionequation?
(b)Basedonhismodel,eachadditionalfamilymemberincreasesthepredictedcostsbyhowmuch?
(c)BasedonthesignificanceF-test,isthismodelagoodpredictionequation?
(d)Whatpercentofthevariationinmedicalexpensesisexplainedbythesizeofthefamily?
(e)Canthenullhypothesisthattheslopeiszeroberejected?
Whyorwhynot?
(f)Whatisthevalueofthecorrelationcoefficient?
10.BobWhiteisconductingresearchonmonthlyexpensesformedicalcare,includingoverthecountermedicine.Hisdependentvariableismonthlyexpensesformedicalcarewhilehisindependentvariablesarenumberoffamilymembersandinsurancetype(governmentfunded,privateinsuranceandother).Hehascodedinsurancetypeasthefollowing:
X2=1ifgovernmentfunded,X3=1ifprivateinsurance
BelowishisExceloutput.
(a)Whatisthepredictionequation?
(b)BasedonthesignificanceF-test,isthismodelagoodpredictionequation?
(c)Whatpercentofthevariationinmedicalexpensesisexplainedbytheindependentvariables?
(d)Basedonhismodel,whatarethepredictedmonthlyexpensesforafamilyoffourwithprivateinsurance?
(e)Basedonhismodel,whatarethepredictedmonthlyexpensesforafamilyoftwowithgovernmentfundedinsurance?
(f)Basedonhismodel,whatarethepredictedmonthlyexpensesforafamilyoffivewithnoinsurance?
Chapter05
11.DemandforpatientsurgeryatWashingtonGeneralHospitalhasincreasedsteadilyinthepastfewyears,asseeninthefollowingtable:
Year
Outpatientsurgeriesperformed
1
45
2
50
3
52
4
56
5
58
6
--
Thedirectorofmedicalservicespredictedsixyearsagothatdemandinyear1wouldbe42surgeries.Usingexponentialsmoothingwithaweightofdevelopforecastsforyears2through6.WhatistheMAD?
12.DailyhightemperaturesinthecityofHoustonforthelastweekhavebeen:
93,94,93,95,92,86,98(yesterday).
(a)Forecastthehightemperaturetodayusingathree-daymovingaverage.
(b)Forecastthehightemperaturetodayusingatwo-daymovingaverage.
(c)Calculatethemeanabsolutedeviationbasedonatwo-daymovingaverage,coveringalldaysinwhichyoucanhaveaforecastandanactualtemperature.
13.Forthedatabelow:
Month
Automobile
BatterySales
Month
Automobile
BatterySales
January
20
July
17
February
21
August
18
March
15
September
20
April
14
October
20
May
13
November
21
June
16
December
23
(a)Developascatterdiagram.
(b)Developathree-monthmovingaverage.
(c)ComputeMAD.
Chapter06
14.PattersonElectronicssuppliesmicrocomputercircuitrytoacompanythatincorporatesmicroprocessorsintorefrigeratorsandotherhomeappliances.Oneofthecomponentshasanannualdemandof250units,andthisisconstantthroughouttheyear.Carryingcostisestimatedtobe$1perunitperyear,andtheorderingcostis$20perorder.
(a)Tominimizecost,howmanyunitsshouldbeorderedeachtimeanorderisplaced?
(b)Howmanyordersperyearareneededwiththeoptimalpolicy?
(c)Whatistheaverageinventoryifcostsareminimized?
(d)Supposetheorderingcostisnot$20,andPatterson
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