About the new changes in the international economic environment and the response network proposed毕Word下载.docx
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About the new changes in the international economic environment and the response network proposed毕Word下载.docx
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sincethesecondquarterofthisyear,manyofthemajoreconomiesandemergingmarketcountries,thereleaseoftheeconomygrowingnumberofpositivesignals,indicatingthatthepreviousjointimplementationofnationalorinternationaleconomicrescuemeasuresandinternationalcooperationhasbeenpayingoff,Worldeconomicrecoveryisexpectedtostartthejourney,butatthesametime,internationaleconomicandfinancialdeep-seatedcontradictionshavenotbeeneffectivelyresolved,theendogenousdrivingforceofeconomicgrowthisstillinsufficient,internationalfinancialmanagementsystemreconstructionandslowprogressinstrippingtoxicassets,allkindsofnegativefactorsthatcouldmakeanyshipranaground,sinkingworldeconomycanbeexpectedinthenextperiod,China’seconomicdevelopmentfacessevereinternationaleconomicenvironmentremainscomplexandneedtoactivelyrespondappropriately.
First,theglobaleconomicrescueplantoachievepositiveresultssincethesecondhalfof2008,theintegrateduseofvariouscountries,includingmonetary,taxation,industrialpolicy,etc.,meanstoputalotofresourcestocurbthemomentumoftheeconomicdownturn,accordingtotheInternationalMonetaryFund(IMF)statistics,asofJunethisyear,theGroupofTwenty(G20)inresponsetothefinancialcrisishaspledgedfundstotaling$11.9trillion.globaleconomicrescueplan,effectivelycurbtheworldeconomyintodeeprecession,increasingtheeffectivenessofappear,mainlyinthreeaspects:
First,thedeclineineconomicgrowthhaseased.Thisyear,thethreemajoreconomies,theeconomicsituationimprovedquarterbyquarter.Inthesecondquarter,U.S.GDPgrowthrateofchainoff-0.7%annualrate,betterthanthefirstquarterof-6.4%andtheeuroareagrowthrateof-0.2%qoq,betterthanthefirstquarterof-2.5%,bothinGermanyandFrance,thereiseconomicgrowth,thechaingrowthof0.3%.Japanesechaingrowthrateof0.6%,betterthanthefirstquarterof-3.1%inmostemergingmarketeconomiesisgraduallyrestored.Thesecondquarter,Brazil’sGDPgrowthof1.8%,betterthanthefirstquarterof-1.6%ofIndia’sGDPgrew6.1%,betterthan4.1%inthefirstquarterofSouthKoreaGDPgrowthof2.3%,betterthanthefirstquarterof0.1%.
Second,theindustrialoperationhasstabilizedthisyearinMay,theeurozoneindustrialproductionappearedslightlywoundedgrowthof.79months,U.S.industrialproduction,therehavebeenninemonthssincethefirstgrowthofGlobalManufacturingPurchasingManagers’Indexof50,whichisthefirstincreasesincethefinancialcrisistoboominterval;
worldorderthanathistoricallyhighinventorylevels,indicatingthatinventorycoveringthesecondhalfoftheworldwillpromotetherecoveryofindustrialproduction.
Third,thefinancialmarkethaswarmedupthisyearfromMarchtoSeptember,themainstockindexreboundedsharplyintheU.S.DowJonesindexrosefromayearlowof6547.05to9712.28,anincreaseof48.3%;
London’sFTSEindexrosefromayearlowof3512.09to5133.9,anincreaseof46.2%;
Nikkeirosefromtheyearlowof7054.98to10133.23,anincreaseof44.4%.
TheOECDisexpectedinSeptember,theGroupofSeven(G7),thethirdquarteroftheUnitedStatesandtheeurozoneeconomywillreturntopositivegrowthinthethirdquarter,whichtheU.S.economywillgrow1.6%inthefourthquarter,theeconomywillgrow2.4%.IMFrecently2009globalGDPgrowthfromtheprevious-1.4%to-1.1%,adjusted,andthattheworldeconomicrecoverymaybesoonerthanexpected.
Second,thecontinuingglobaleconomicrecoverystillfacesmanyconstraints,thecurrentworldeconomicandfinancialdeep-seatedcontradictionshavenotbeeneffectivelyresolved,theeconomicrescueplanimplementationprocesshasrevealedsomenewproblems,thefrontrangeoftheworldeconomicrecovery,therearemanyreefs.
Thefirstreef,endogenousgrowth,lackofmotivation.Investment,privateinvestmentintentionsremainweak.UNCTADsurveyinJuly,inthesurveyof241largemultinationalcompanies,planstoreduceforeigndirectinvestmentthisyear,about58%,ofwhichnearly1/3ofthecompanyplanstosignificantlyreduceforeigninvestment.consumption,astheworld’smajorconsumermarketsoftheUnitedStatesandEuroperemainweakthisyear,theU.S.householdsavingsratewascloseto7%,nowdownto4%,although,butstillwellabovepre-crisislevels.eurozonefirstquarterofthisyear,thehouseholdsavingsrateisashighas15.6%forthehighestvaluesince1999.technologicaldevelopment,thereiscurrentlynosimilarlate1990sInternettechnologyemergenceofarevolutionaryscientificandtechnologicalprogress,notenoughtoformasustainedeconomicrecoverytoanewgrowthpoint.
Thesecondreef,highunemploymentontheonehand,developedeconomiesthemainforceforcreatingjobsandrealestatefinanceindustryhasnotyetrecovered,layoffshavecontinued;
theotherhand,directlyaffecttheabsorptionofweakprivateinvestmentinnewemploymentTheU.S.unemploymentratewas9.8%inSeptember,higherthan9.7%inAugust,a26-yearhigh;
theeurozoneunemploymentrateof9.6%inAugust,higherthanJuly’s9.5%,in1999thehighestsincetheestablishmentoftheeuroarealevel;
JapaninJuly,theunemploymentratewas5.7%higherthanJune’s5.4%,thehighestlevelofunemploymentfortheWorldWarII,theunemploymentrateremainshighleadingtoadeclineinpersonalspendingpowerandthesolvencyofthereducedimpactofimproveddomesticdemand,willtosomeextent,provideanexcusefortheimplementationoftradeprotection.
Thethirdreef,tradeprotectionismisrampant.Sincelastyear,intheopinion,eachcountryshouldhavetostandagainstprotectionism.Butinactuality,notonlyindevelopedeconomies,andevensomedevelopingcountrieshavetakenanumberofopenordisguisedprotectivetradepolicy,tradeprotectionismworldwiderampant.WTOlatest&
lt;
&
WorldTradeReport2009&
gt;
thatintradeprotectionismundertheinfluenceofotherfactors,thisyear’sglobaltradewilldeclineby10%,worsethantheMarchforecastof9%.
Thefourthreef,economicrescuemeasureshascertainlimitations.Cutsanddirectinjectionofcapitalandothereconomicrescuemeasurestoeffectivelyrelievethecountry’smajorbanksinfinancialdifficulties,butcannotsolvetheunemploymentrateofdeteriorationandoffforhousingcausedbythesmallincreaseinbadloansincrease,deteriorationofoperatingconditionsandotherissuesthisyearhavebeencloseddownsincethe94U.S.banks,whilein2008only25bankfailuresintheUnitedStatesasofAugust16largeEuropeanbankshavefourlosses;
EuropeanCentralBankwarnedinJune,totheendofnextyeartheeuroareaBankoftoxicassetswillsufferthelossof283billioneuros.BankofJapanbankruptcycasenumberasofMayfellby6.7%,buttheabsolutenumberisstillupsince1203,whiletheUnitedStates,theeuroareaandotherdevelopedeconomiestotakethedirectpurchaseoflong-termbondsandotherso-called‘quantitativeeasing’measures,causingpeopleagainsttheU.S.dollarandothermajorcurrencydevaluationandinflationconcerns.
Thefifthreefs,avarietyofunexpectednegativefactorsgathertheonehand,countriesintheworldcurrentlyfacesmorechallengesthantheseverenaturaldisasterstheotherhand,localconflictsbreakoutareas,suchasRussiaandGeorgia,AbkhaziaandaroundsovereigntyofSouthOssetiamilitaryconflict,themaximumSARnorthernBurmaMyanmargovernmenttroopsandthemilitaryconfrontationbetweentheWastate,NorthKoreatensions,Islamicextremism,terroristsrepeatedlytocreatedisturbances,etc.Theseboundtoacertaindegreeofdiversificationofeconomicdevelopmentaroundtheworldattention,affecttheeconomicrecoveryprocess.
Allthesenegativefactors,theUnitedNationsCommissiononTradeandDevelopmentreleasedSeptember7,‘TradeandDevelopmentReport2009&
saidtheeconomiccrisisofthewinterisfarfromover,theglobaleconomyunlikelytoachieveanearlyrecovery,theglobaleconomywillshrink2.7%declineindevelopedeconomiesmayreach4%oftheoveralleconomicgrowthindevelopingcountriesmayslowto1.3%aftertheviewismuchmorepessimisticthantheIMFinlate.9PittsburghintheUnitedStatesheldthefirstleadersoftheG20threefinancialsummitcommuniquealsosaidtoavoidprematurewithdrawalofstimulus.
Third,onimprovingourpackageofpolicyrecommendationstofacethenewchangesintheinternationaleconomicenvironment,weneedtoseethefavorablefactors,seizetheopportunitytorideonthemomentum,consolidateanddevelopChina’seconomyhasstabilizedtothegoodmomentum,butalsoobjectiveanalysisactualandpotentialadversefactorsmakeearlyplans,inparticular,totheinternationaleconomicenvironmentfortheemergenceofnewchangesandnewproblems,tostudyandproposecountermeasurestoenhancetheforward-lookingmacroeconomicpolicies,effectivenessandsustainability.Sharethefreedownload
(A)neverthewrongtime,inappropriatemacroeconomicpolicyorientationundertheconditionsofthischangeisSeptembermeetingofG20financeministersandcentralbankgovernorsoftheconsensus,hasalsobeenreflectedintheFederalReservesinceSeptember,theEuropeanCentralBank,BankofEngland,Canadacentralbank,BankofNewZealandandSouthKoreacentralbankactionintheseeconomies,thecentralbank’slatestdecisionis
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