Analysis of the financial crisis on the impact of the RMB exchange rate regime毕业论文翻译0.docx
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Analysis of the financial crisis on the impact of the RMB exchange rate regime毕业论文翻译0.docx
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AnalysisofthefinancialcrisisontheimpactoftheRMBexchangerateregime毕业论文翻译0
AnalysisofthefinancialcrisisontheimpactoftheRMBexchangerateregime
First,theexternalfinancialcrisiswillexacerbatetheblameontheRMBexchangeratesystemBythefinancialcrisis,tradeprotectionismhasbeguntoshowtheU.S.TreasurySecretary-designateGeithner,duringhistenureinChinahasbeenaccusedofmanipulatingtheRMBexchangerate,whichtheBushadministrationrefusedtoidentifyChinaasacurrencymanipulatorsignificantlydifferentattitude,butthemainpurposeofthecurrentU.S.istoquicklygetoutoffinancialcrisis,outofeconomicrecession,andtheRMBexchangeratearrangementsingeneralhelptheU.S.achievethisobjective,atleastnotcontrarytothispurpose,therefore,thenewU.S.governmentinacrisisshouldnotRMBexchangerateregimetotakesubstantiveactionagainst,therealeconomyoutofrecessionfromthepointofview,thesharpappreciationoftheyuantonarrowtheU.S.tradedeficitwithnorealimpact.thecurrentSino-UStradebalance,representedbytheglobaleconomicimbalances,rootedintheUnitedStatesgreatersavingsgap(lackofsavings),andincludingouremergingmarketeconomiesinEastAsiahavealargeinvestmentgap(savingsglut).Fromtheperspectiveoftheglobaleconomicbalance,withhighersavingsratesinemergingmarketeconomiesinEastAsiaarecollectivelyforcedtolowerthesavingsratetomaintainthebalanceoftraderelationsbetweentheUnitedStates.Obviously,thisstructuralimbalanceisrootedintheglobaleconomyimbalance,eveniftheyuantoappreciatetothesharpdeclineinChina’stradesurpluswiththeU.S.levelviewoftheU.S.savingsrateisdifficulttoimproveintheshortterm,thedeficitwouldstillexist,butinothercountriesintodeficitonly.1970sSincethelateU.S.tradedeficitandtherehasbeenintensified,butitstradesurplusinturnbytherivalcountryintoJapan‘AsianTigers’,‘Asiantigers’,andthenintoChinaonly.
OutoffinancialcrisisfromtheperspectiveoftheyuantoappreciateisnottheAmericanwayofresolvingfinancialcrises.Recently,theWesternacademiacirculatinga‘troublesTungyin’fallacy,theRMBexchangerateregimeisabouttheU.S.subprimemortgagecrisiswithadirectlink.ThatChina’sundervaluedcurrencyisthemaincauseoftheU.S.tradesurplus,ChinawillhaveaccumulatedlargeforeignexchangereservesinvestedinU.S.Treasurybonds,whichloweredthelong-termU.S.interestrates,andthuslowinterestratestostimulatetheU.S.financialinnovationandfinancialinstitutionstotakeexcessiverisks,andultimatelyledtothesubprimemortgagecrisis.Manyfactsshowthatfinancialdevelopmentandamismatchbetweenriskperceptionistherootcauseofthecurrentfinancialcrisis.Sincethe1990s,theUnitedStates,financialinnovationandthedeepeningoffinancialdevelopment,althoughthefinancialriskperceptionhasimprovedduringthesameperiod,butlaggedbehindtheneedsofpractice.’sfinancialdevelopmentandriskperceptiondoesnotmatchthegreatlyreducedtheeffectivenessofexistingarrangementsforfinancialstability,financialinstitutions,internalcontrol,marketdisciplineandefficiencyoffinancialsupervisionarecloselyassociatedwiththisdecline.Fromaperspective,withtheinevitabilityofthesubprimemortgagecrisis,itisnotnecessarilylinkedexchangeratesystem.
Infact,theRMBexchangeratetomaintaintheexistingsystem,includingeconomicmodels,includingtheUnitedStates,theUnitedStatesisbeneficialtoresolvefinancialcrisis.Currently,theU.S.governmentintherealeconomyandfinancialsectorwhiletakingactiontoresolvethecrisisintherealeconomy,theUnitedStatesmainlythroughexpansionaryfiscalpolicytostabilizeeconomicgrowth;inthefinancialsector,majorU.S.financialinstitutionsthroughtheassistance,theacquisitionoftoxicassetsoffinancialinstitutions,providingliquiditytothemarketthreewaystostabilizethefinancialsystemsolutiontoresolvethecrisisintheUnitedStatestakesalotofmoneyThisforcedtheU.S.governmenthadalargenumberofbondsissuedintheU.S.demandforgovernmentbonds,foreigninvestors,holdsanimportantposition.2008,netissuanceofU.S.governmentbonds$1.47trillion,ofwhichforeigninvestorsbought$772billion.inmodeofeconomicexchangesbetweentheUnitedStatesinRMB‘soft’pegtothedollar,China’slargetradesurpluswiththeUnitedStatesandChinatokeepholdlargeamountsofU.S.Treasurybondsasthemainfeature,thismodelwillhelptheUnitedStatestoraisefunds,stablebondmarket.Itshouldbesaid,thecrisisstrengthenedtheU.S.economicmodel,‘bundled,’meaningthatChinaneedsU.S.marketsforlaborandemployment,theUnitedStatesneedsChina’scapitaltostabilizeitsfinancialsystemunderminethestabilityofthismodel,nogoodtobothsides.
Second,thefinancialcrisisdoesnotsimplythreatenthesafetyofChina’sforeignexchangereservesSubprimemortgagecrisis,China’sforeignexchangereservesofthepeoplecausedwidespreadconcernsecurityissues.SomedomesticscholarsbelievethattheFedcontinuedtoinjectliquidityintothefinancialsystem,makingtheU.S.economyisfacingahugefuturethreatofinflation,China’sforeignexchangereservesarealsolikelyTherefore,sufferedheavylosses,theRMBexchangerateregimeshouldbeflexibletoacceleratereformsinresponsetothecrisis,theU.S.monetaryauthoritiescontinuetoloosenitsmonetarypolicytheFed’sinitialreactionisthat,throughmoreactivereservemanagementtomakeshort-termmoneymarketinterestratesconsistentwiththetargetlevel.then,toeasethemoneymarketandrepomarketonaregularbasisthepressure,theFederalReserveBankoflongertermfinancingtoexpandtheeligiblecollateralandcounterpartiesoftheextendedrangeofsecuritiesfinanceviewoffinancialmarketturmoilcontinuesandtherealeconomyrecessionTheFedquicklyadjustitsmonetarypolicystance,thefederalfundsratefrom5.25%intheshorttermdownto0-0.25%inthecaseoflackofspace,interestrates,theFedbegantoimplementtheso-called‘quantitativeeasing’monetarypolicy,namelymonetaryputthenumberofdirectmonetarypolicyconcernsratherthaninterestrates.Fromtheperspectiveofthemoneysupply,monetarypolicyisnothingspecialabouttheabove,alloperationsarethecentralbankthroughopenmarketoperationstoinjectliquidityintothemarketwhenfacedwithinflation,thecentralbankcanpurchasethroughthesaleoftheircurrentdebtandothertypesoffinancialassetstothecontractionofliquidity.needtobefurthernotedthat,intheUnitedStates,arichandrelativelypoorcountrybutaparliamentarydemocracy,theFedcannotaffordtodamagethevalueofChina’sforeignexchangereservesanddeliberatelypushinflation.Shareinfreedownload
Mainlydevelopedcountriesfinancialliberalizationandfinancialreformsindevelopingcountries,stimulatethegrowthofspeculativedemandformoney,inlargeparttoeasetheliquiditypressuresoninflationexpansionofglobalsub-primecrisisputalotofliquidityintheMostofthecrisisdoesnotdirectlyentertherealeconomy,mostofthemmostlikelyfromthecautiousspeculativestatetostate,thattheglobalcontractionofliquiditytoprovideadequateresponsetime.China’snoneedforlargereservescurrencyrestructuring.but,duetothelargenumberofforeignexchangereservesintheUnitedStates,anyurgentrestructuringofthecurrencyislikelytobeduetohightransactioncostsandforeignexchangemarketsreacttothedetrimentofthegamethevalueofChina’sforeignexchangereserves,forexample,iftheChinaquicklydollarreservesintoeurosdebtreserves,themassivesell-offislikelytocausearapidincreaseinU.S.bondyields,whichwillleadourcountrycontinuetoholdthediscountedvalueofdollarreservesdecline.What’smore,theworld’smajorreservecurrencyinthecurrentThedollarisstillthesafetyoftheprimacy.
Third,thesubstantialdepreciationoftheRMBshouldnotbeusedtogetridofthecurrenteconomiccrunchRMBexchangerateonareasonableandbalancedlevel,thereismuchcontroversyandtheoreticalcircles.AcommonviewthattheRMBexchangerateshouldbereasonableandbalancedlevelisconducivetotheinternationalbalanceofpaymentsfromthecountry’sinternationalbalanceofpaymentsperspective,thesharpappreciationoftheyuanshouldbe.Maintainingsustained,stable,fastgrowthisthefundamentalobjectiveofChina’smacroeconomicmanagement,includingexchangeratepolicy,includingallthemacro-controlpoliciesarerequiredasabasicstartingpoint,inotherwords,arationalandbalancedRMBexchangeratelevelshouldbethefirsttobenefitTheoverallobjectiveofachievingeconomicgrowth,followedinordertoconsiderthebalanceofinternationalpayments.
Thesub-primecrisis,China’seconomyisinseveredecline,exportsandinvestmentgrowthfellsharplyyearonyearJiebecauseofinvestmentdeclinewasmainlycausedbythedeclineinexports,thecurrentroundofChina’seconomiccontractioninexternaldemandshockscanbeclassifiedastypeeconomiccontraction.Tosustaineconomicgrowth,China’sgovernmentpromptlyissuedastrongproactivefiscalpolicyandmoderatelyloosemonetarypolicyinthefieldofexchangeratepolicyinChinasofarhasnottakenabigstep.whetherourcountryshouldbeusedtogetridofthecurrentRMBdevaluationeconomiccontraction,whichisChina’sexchangeratepolicyneedstothinkaboutimportantissues.
WorldTradeOrganizationstatisticsshowthat:
the
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