130323 MG.docx
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130323 MG.docx
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130323MG
ThepowerofChina
Toastingtheworld(ornot)
Twobooksoffercontrastingviewsoftheglobalimpactofthesuperpower
Mar23rd2013 |Fromtheprintedition
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China’sSilentArmy:
ThePioneers,Traders,FixersandWorkersWhoAreRemakingtheWorldinBeijing’sImage. ByJuanPabloCardenalandHeribertoAraújo.TranslatedbyCatherineMansfield. Crown;350pages;$26. Buyfrom A, Amazon.co.uk
ChinaGoesGlobal:
ThePartialPower. ByDavidShambaugh. OxfordUniversityPress;409pages;$29.95and£20. Buyfrom A and Amazon.co.uk
Inthissection
∙Toastingtheworld(ornot)
∙Brothersinarms
∙Thejoyofstats
∙Complexpersecution
∙Wherefingersdothewalking
∙Diplomaticwhirl
Reprints
Relatedtopics
∙China
ACHANGINGChinahaslongbeenamirrorinwhichvisitorscanseetheirexpectationsandtheirowncharacterreflected.Glass-half-fullpeoplearguethathundredsofmillionshavebeenliftedoutofpovertyandmillionsarenowbeingempoweredbytheiruseoftheinternetandtheirincreasedspendingpower.Thelesspositivepointoutthathumanrightsareroutinelyabused,freedomofspeechisrestrictedandcorruptionendemic.Bothareright.Itjustdependswhereyoulookandwhatyouwanttosee.
Thesame,itturnsout,istrueofChina’sengagementwiththeworld,accordingtotwonewbooks.In“China’sSilentArmy”JuanPabloCardenalandHeribertoAraújo,bothSpanishjournalists,claimthatChinaisattheheightofitsexpansionacrosstheworldandthatitslong-termvocationisglobal.Theworld,theyargue,facesaslowbutsteadyconquestthatisalreadylayingthefoundationsforthenewworldorderofthe21stcentury:
“aworldunderChina’sleadership”.
Thetworeporterssetouttoshow,inahighlyreadablefashion,thegrowingChineseimpactoneverycorneroftheglobe.FromthegasfieldsofTurkmenistantothebazaarsofDubaiandtheminesofCongo,theyfindChineseworkerstryingtoextractwhattheycanfromforeigncustomersandtheearth’scrust.ThearrivalofgoodsandpeoplefromChinaischanginghowbusinessisdone.ChinesetradershavetakenoverthemainthoroughfareoftheSenegalesecapital,Dakar,whichisnowknownasBoulevardMao.TheyareplunderingBurma’sforestsandjademines.“TheChineseoverseascommunityislikeagiantMasoniclodge,”complainsoneArgentinian.“Wefeellikewe’relivinginaChinesecolony,”addsaPeruvianminer,whosemine(andtown)wereboughtbyastate-ownedChinesecompany.
Certainlythereisplentytocomplainabout.ManyChinesecompaniesbringtheirownworkerstoAfrica,ortreatlocalworkersbadlywhentheydohirethem.Environmentaldamageiswidespread.TheunaccountabilityofChinesecompaniesathomeisextendedabroadastheyteamupwithrapaciouslocalelites.
ThisisanimportantsummaryofsomeoftheworstChinesebehaviouraroundtheworld,buthyperboleweakensitsargument.Theauthorsclaimthatallthejobscreated,infrastructurebuiltandcheapgoodsprovidedare“undoubtedlyeclipsedbyitsapproachtolabourconditions”,ignoringthefactthatChineseinvestmentbringspositivechangeaswellasproblems.Theyindicatethatthe“Chinesemiracle”athomehasbeenamiraclemainlyforpoliticalelites,aclaimthatiseasytodisprovesimplybywalkingaroundanyChinesecity.Mostimprobably,theyclaimthattheworldisbecoming“sinicised”.
“ChinaGoesGlobal”tellstheothersideofthestory.Theauthor,DavidShambaugh,aChinaspecialistatGeorgeWashingtonUniversity,saysitiswrongeventosuggestthattheworldis,orwillbe,“underChina’sleadership”.Thecountryisnotnearlyaspowerfulaspeoplethink,heargues.Itsfootprintis“broad,butnotdeep”.MrShambaughtakesissuewiththeideathatChinaistryingtolockupinternationalmineralproductionandprovidesstatisticstobackuphisargument.“Buyup,yes,”hewrites.“Lockup,no.”Chinesecompanies’shareofglobalmininginvestmentswaslessthan6%ofglobaltransactionsin2010.FewChinesemergersandacquisitionsabroadhavebeensuccessful,andChina’soverseasdirectinvestmentisonaparwithDenmark’s.
Theauthorgoesontolookatthecountry’sglobalsecurityandculturalpresence.HeconcludesthatChinahaseithernottried(inthecaseofamilitarypresence),orhastriedandfailed(inpushingitssoftpower)toexpanditsinfluenceglobally.HebelievesthenotionthatChinawillruletheworldtobe“profoundlyoverstatedandincorrect”.Andheaddsthatthenationhasa“verylongwaytogobeforeitbecomes—ifiteverbecomes—atrueglobalpower”.
MrShambaughalsoinvestigatesChina’sglobaleconomicexpansion.Exports,hesays,arestilldominatedbylow-endconsumerproductsandthereisalmostnoChinesebrandrecognition.“Merelyhavingaglobalpresencedoesnotequalhavingglobalpower,”hewrites.Chinesepeopleandcompaniesmayhavegoneglobal,butChinaisnotinfluencingworldaffairsbeyondtherealmoftradeandtheenergymarkets.Itisnotinfluentialinaddressingandsolvingglobalproblemsbecauseitsleadersaretoobusytryingtoaddressdomesticproblems.ThefactthatChinadoesnotreallyhaveacivilsocietyofitsownmeansitislesslikelytoengageincivilsocietyabroad.Itisanarrowlyself-interestedpowerthatventuresoverseastosupportitsowneconomicgrowthandlittleelse.
Theauthoradmitsthathewassurprisedbyhisfindings.Hehadexpectedtocometoaverydifferentconclusion.However,inoneexampleafteranotherheprovidessolidquantitativeevidenceforhisargument.“ChinaGoesGlobal”isafascinatingandscholarlychallengetothereceivedwisdomaboutChina’srise,andanimportantcritiqueoftheacceptednarrativeofChineseexpansionism.
AfricaandChina
Morethanminerals
ChinesetradewithAfricakeepsgrowing;fearsofneocolonialismareoverdone
Mar23rd2013 | NAIROBI |Fromtheprintedition
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AGROUPoffivetouristsfromBeijingpasseslowoverMountKenyaandintotheRiftValleyintheirprivateplanebeforelandingonadustyairstripsurroundedbytheyellowtrunksandmist-likebranchesoffevertrees.Theywalkacrossagrassyopeningwherezebrasandgiraffesroam,snappingpictureswhilekeepinganeyeoutforchargingbuffaloes.Whentheysitdownatatable,theyseemhungrybutatease.“LastyearIwenttotheSouthPolewithsomefriends,”saysoneoftwohousewives,showingoffiPhonepicturesofagaggleofpenguinsonpermafrost.
ChinesearecomingtoAfricainevergreaternumbersandfindingitacomfortableplacetovisit,workinandtrade.Anestimated1marenowresidentinAfrica,upfromafewthousandadecadeago,andmorekeeparriving.Chinesearethefourth-most-numerousvisitorstoSouthAfrica.AmongthemwillbeChina’snewpresident,XiJinping,whoisalsogoingtoTanzaniaandtheDemocraticRepublicofCongoonhisfirstforeignoutingasleader.
Inthissection
∙Morethanminerals
∙AddledinAddis
∙Ontothepolls
∙Let’stryalessawkwardembrace
∙Whathappenedtoreform?
Reprints
Relatedtopics
∙Asia-Pacificpolitics
∙Nigeria
∙Africa
∙Africanpolitics
∙Chinesepolitics
TheoriginofChina’sfascinationwithAfricaiseasytosee.BetweentheSaharaandtheKalaharidesertsliemanyoftherawmaterialsdesiredbyitsindustries.ChinarecentlyovertookAmericaastheworld’slargestnetimporterofoil.Almost80%ofChineseimportsfromAfricaaremineralproducts.ChinaisAfrica’stopbusinesspartner,withtradeexceeding$166billion.Butitisnotallminerals.ExportstoAfricaareamixedbag(seechart).Machinerymakesup29%.
ThesizeofChina’sdirectinvestmentinAfricaishardertomeasurethantrade.LastsummerChina’scommerceminister,ChenDeming,saidthenumber“exceeded$14.7billion,up60%from2009”.AroundthesametimetheChineseambassadortoSouthAfrica,TianXuejun,said:
“China’sinvestmentinAfricaofvariouskindsexceeds$40billion.”Apparently,thefirstfigureisforAfricaninvestmentsreportedtothegovernment.ThesecondincludesestimatesofChinesefundsflowinginfromtaxsheltersaroundtheworld.
Sino-Africanlinkshavebroadenedinthepastfewyears.TherelationshipisnowalmostasdiverseasAfricaitself.ButMrXiwillsearchinvainforthee-mailaddressofasingleAfricanleaderwhocanspeakfortherest,ratherasHenryKissingerlegendarilystruggledtofindasinglephonenumberforEurope.
UntilrecentlyChinaconcentratedonafewbigresource-richcountries,includingAlgeria,Nigeria,SouthAfrica,SudanandZambia.ButplaceslikeEthiopiaandCongo,wheremineralsarescarceorhardtoextract,arenowgettingmoreattention,notleastasmoreChinesebusinessesbranchoutintonon-resourcesectors.State-ownedcompaniescompetewithprivatefirms—bothtemptedbymarginsoftenfarhigherthanathome.YoungChineseprivate-equityfundsarealsocomingtoAfrica.
Africansarefarfrombeingsteamrollered.Theirgovernmentshaveshownasurprisingassertiveness.ThefirstpersontobeexpelledfromAfrica’syoungestcountry,SouthSudan,wasaChinese:
LiuYingcai,thelocalheadofPetrodar,aChinese-Malaysianoilcompanyandthegovernment’sbiggestcustomer,inconnectionwithanalleged$815moil“theft”.CongokickedouttworoguecommoditiestradersintheKivuregion.AlgeriancourtshavebannedtwoChinesefirmsfromparticipatinginapublictender,allegingcorruption.Gaboneseofficialsditchedanunfavourableresourcedeal.KenyanandSouthAfricanconservationistsareaskingChinatostopthetradeinivoryandrhinohorn.
AfricanelitesseeChinaastheirbiggestpartneramongemergingcountries,butbynomeanstheonlyone.Brazil,RussiaandIndia(alsointheBRICSclub),aswellasTurkey,Sou
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