The world economy is picking up.docx
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The world economy is picking up.docx
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Theworldeconomyispickingup
Fromdeprivationtodaffodils
Theworldeconomyispickingup
Despiteanxieties,thegreenshootsofglobalrecoveryarereal
Mar18th2017
“IFWINTERcomes,”thepoetShelleyasked,“canSpringbefarbehind?
”Forthebestpartofadecadetheanswerasfarastheworldeconomyhasbeenconcernedhasbeenanincreasinglyweary“Yesitcan”.Now,though,aftertestingthefaithofthemostpatientsoulswithglimmersthatcametonothing,thingsseemtobewarmingup.Itlookslikelythatthisyear,forthefirsttimesince2010,rich-worldanddevelopingeconomieswillputonsynchronisedgrowthspurts.
Therearestillplentyofreasonstofret:
China’sdebtmountain;theflawsinthefoundationsoftheeuro;DonaldTrump’sprotectionisttendencies;andsoon.Butamidtheseanxietiesarerealgreenshoots.Forsixmonthsorsotherehasbeengrowingevidenceofincreasedactivity.Ithasbeenclearestintheexport-orientedeconomiesofAsia.ButitisvisibleinEurope,inAmericaandeven,just,inhard-hitemergingmarketslikeRussiaandBrazil.
Thesignalsarestrongestfromthemorecyclicalpartsoftheglobaleconomy,notablymanufacturing.SurveysofpurchasingmanagersinAmerica,theeurozoneandAsiashowfactoriesgettingalotbusier(seechart1).GlobaltradinghubssuchasTaiwanandSouthKoreaarebustling.Taiwan’sNationalDevelopmentCouncilpublishesacompositeindicatorthattrackstheeconomy’sstrength:
blueissluggish,greenisstableandredisoverheating.Theoveralleconomyhasbeenflashinggreenlightsforsevenmonthsandispushinguptowardstheredzone.
Thisreflects,amongotherthings,demandforsemiconductorsaroundtheworld;thisFebruaryexportsfromTaiwanwereupby28%comparedwith2016.Althoughthatisthemoststrikingexample,exportsareupelsewhereintheregion,too.SouthKorea’sroseby20%inFebruarycomparedwithayearearlier.Inyuanterms,China’swere11%higherinthefirsttwomonthsof2017thanin2016.
Thisapparentvigourisinpartjustareflectionofhowbadthingslooked12monthsago;supplierswhooverdidthegloominearly2016arerestocking.Asia’stautsupplychainsalsoowesomethingtothetwo-to-three-yearlife-cycleofconsumergadgetry.OnMarch10thLGElectronicslauncheditsnewG6smartphone.Itslargerrival,Samsung,isduetounveilitsGalaxyS8phonebytheendofthemonth;anewiPhonewillbeoutlaterthisyear.
Butthesignsofliferundeeperthanjustthosespecificswouldallow.Businessspendingonmachineryandequipmentispickingup.AproxymeasurebasedonshipmentsofcapitalgoodsconstructedbyeconomistsatJPMorganChase,abank,suggeststhatworldwideequipmentspendinggrewatanannualisedrateof5.25%inthelastquarterof2016.
Thegoodnewsgoesbeyondmanufacturing,too.Americanemployers,excludingfarms,added235,000workerstotheirpayrollsinFebruary,wellabovetherecentaverage.TheEuropeanCommission’seconomic-sentimentindex,basedonsurveysofserviceindustries,manufacturers,buildersandconsumers,isashighasithasbeensince2011.Afterastrongfourthquarter,theBankofJapanrevisedupitsforecastforgrowthinthecurrentfiscalyearfrom1%to1.4%.Suchoptimismraisestwobigquestions:
whatisbehindthisnascentrecoveryandwillittakehold?
Lilacsfromthedeadland
Therevival’srootscanbetracedtotheearlymonthsoflastyear,whenapossiblecalamitywasaverted.Attheendof2015stockmarketstumbledinresponsetorenewedanxietyaboutChina’seconomy.Pricesatthefactorygate,whichhadbeenfallingsteadilyforseveralyears,hadstartedtoplunge.TherewerefearsthatChinawouldbeforcedtodevalueitscurrencysharply:
acheaperyuanmightspurChina’soversuppliedindustriestoexportmore,fattenprofitsandservicetheirgrowingdebts.
Suchadesperatemeasurewould,ineffect,haveexporteditsmanufacturingdeflationtotherestoftheworld,forcingrivalstocutpricesortodevalueinturn.TheexpectationthatChina’seconomywasweakeningpushedraw-materialpricestotheirlowestlevelsince2009.Theoilpricebrieflysunkbelow$30abarrel.ThatworsenedtheplightofBrazilandRussia,alreadymiredindeeprecessions.ItalsointensifiedthepressuretocutinvestmentinAmerica’sshale-oilindustry.
Tostabilisetheyuaninthefaceofrapidoutflowsofcapital,Chinaspent$300bnofitsforeign-currencyreservesbetweenNovember2015andJanuary2016.Capitalcontrolsweretightenedtostopmoneyleakingabroad.Banksjuiceduptheeconomywithfastercreditgrowth.Withcapitalnowboxedin,muchofitflowedintolocalproperty:
housepricessoared,firstinthebigcitiesandthenbeyond.Salestaxesonsmallcarswerereducedbyhalf.Betweenthem,thesecontrolsandstimulididthetrick.
Soonstocksofrawmaterialsthathadbeenhurriedlyrundownstartedtolookskimpy.Iron-orepricesjumpedby19%injustonedaylastMarch.CurbsonChinesecoalproductionunderpinnedamini-revivalinglobalprices.Steelpricesrosesharply,helpedbytheclosureofafewhigh-costmillsaswellasmoreconstructionspending.Oilclimbedbackabove$50abarrel(thoughithasslippedbackabitrecently).
Bytheendoftheyearproducer-priceinflationinChina—andacrossAsia—waspositiveagain.AndChina’snominalGDP,whichhadslowedmorethanrealGDP,spedupagain(seechart2).Centralbankers,whohadbeenemployingvariousmeasurestoforestallglobaldeflation,weremightilyrelieved.OnMarch9thMarioDraghi,bossoftheEuropeanCentralBank(ECB),proudlydeclaredthattheriskofdeflationhad“largelydisappeared”.
Hisreliefwasarecognitionthat,thoughasurgeininflationwillfloodtheeconomy’sengine,agentledosecanserveasahelpfullubricant.Atagloballevel,abitmorefactory-gateinflationliftsprofits,sincealotofmanufacturers’productioncostsarelargelyfixed.Fatterprofitsnotonlymakecorporatedebtlessburdensome,theyalsofreecashforcapitalspending,whichcreatesfurtherdemandforbusinessesinavirtuouscircle.
SinceworriesaboutChinaanddeflationreceded,spendingonthingsthatshowsomefaithinfutureincomehasindeedbeguntostir.Arevivalinproducerpricesandthusprofitsisleadingtobusinessinvestmentaroundtheworld.Inthelastquarterof2016businessspendinginJapanroseatanannualisedrateof8%,accordingtoofficialGDPfigures.Gartner,atechconsultancy,predictedinDecemberthatconsumersandcompanieswouldincreasetheirspendingonITby2.7%in2017,upfrom0.5%in2016.JohnLovelock,aresearchanalystatGartner,saysthebiggestjumpinspendingisforecastfortheAsia-Pacificregion.
Continuousasthestarsthatshine?
InAmericaimportsofbothconsumergoodsandcapitalgoodsareup.Therehasbeenspeculationthatthe“animalspirits”ofbusinessfolkhavebeenliftedbyMrTrump’selectioninNovember,andthatcutsintaxandregulations,andasubsequentreturnoftheestimated$1trnofuntaxedcashheldabroadbycompaniesbasedinAmerica,willfuelabigboominbusinessinvestment.
ButJamesStettler,acapital-goodsanalystatBarclaysCapital,notesthat“noone’sreallypushingthebuttononcapexyet”.Andcompanieswhichmightbenefitfromaninvestmentboomarenotgettingcarriedaway.InarecentprofitsstatementCaterpillar,amakerofbulldozersandexcavators,saidthat,whiletaxreformandinfrastructurespendingwouldbegoodforitsbusinesses,itwouldnotexpecttoseelargebenefitsuntilatleast2018.Sofartherecoveryinglobalcapitalspendingisinlinewithwhatyouwouldexpectfromtherecoveryinglobalprofits,saysJosephLuptonofJPMorganChase(seechart3).
Thesignsofrecoveryareencouraging.Butcantheybetrusted?
Thelastfewburstsofoptimismabouttheglobaleconomyallpeteredout.In2010thereboundfromadeeprich-worldrecessionwaspulledbacktoearthbythesovereign-debtcrisisintheeuroarea.AssoonasEuropegingerlyemergedfromrecessioninmid-2013,hintsfromAmerica’sFederalReservethatitsbond-buyingprogrammewouldsoontailoffpromptedastampedeoutofemergingmarkets.This“tapertantrum”blewoverinafewmonths,butithadrepercussions.TheprospectoftightermonetarypolicyinAmerica,howeverdistant,hitthesupplyofcreditinemergingmarkets.Thesqueezewasmadeworsein2014whentheoilpricefellfromover$100abarreltohalfthatinjustafewmonths.Thepriceofotherindustrialrawmaterials,whichhadsettledontoaplateauafterpeakingin2011,begantofall.Thesubsequentslumpininvestmentwasenoughtodragbigcommodityexporters,suchasBrazilandRussia,intorecession.
Evenso,bytheendof2015theFedwassufficientlyconfidentabouttheoutlooktoraiseitsbenchmarkinterestratebyaquarterofapercentagepoint,thefirstsuchincreaseinadecade.Moreincreaseswereexpectedinrelativelyshortorder.ButthejittersaboutChina,andthenBrexit,meantthatitwasafullyearbeforethenext.Ithasnowfollowedupwithanotherincreaseinmuchshorterorder(seearticle).
Falsedawnswereperhapstobeexpected:
recoveriesfromdebtcrisesarepainfullyslow.Spendingsuffersasborrowerswhittleawaytheirdebts.Banksarereluctanttowriteoffold,souringloansandsoareunabletomakefreshnewones.Andtheworldhashadtoshakeoffnotonedebtcrisis,butthree:
thesubprimecrisisinAmerica;thesovereign-debtcrunchinEurope;thenthebustincorporateborrowinginemergingmarkets.
Buttheinitialandmostpainfulstageofeconomicadjustmentinemergingmarketsiscomingtoanend.Current-accountdeficitshavenarrowed,leavingmostcountrieslessreliantonforeignborrowing.Theircurrenciesarealot
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