人民升值对我国外贸影响的外文翻译.docx
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人民升值对我国外贸影响的外文翻译.docx
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人民升值对我国外贸影响的外文翻译
TheimpactofRMBappreciation
Asthecomprehensivestrengthofthenationaleconomygrows,theChinesecurrency,theRenminbi(RMB)begantoappreciate.EffectsoftheRMB'sappreciationsinceJulyhavebeenfeltbothdomesticallyandabroad,andwillbecomeevenmoresignificantwithtime.Chinashouldembracethenewopportunitiesthatappreciationhasopened-upandallowmoreroomforthenationaleconomytogrowintheprocessofglobalization.
PeopleneedtobeawarethattheappreciationoftheRMBmayhavesomelessdesirableeffectsoneconomicgrowthintheshortterm.Currently,China'sexportmarketstillreliesheavilyoncheaplabortocompeteintheinternationalmarket.Asitsaddedvalueislow,theappreciationoftheRMBwillaffectChina'sexportandconsequentlytheoverallgrowthrateofthenationaleconomy.However,therearealsomanypositiveaspectstotheappreciationoftheRMB.Inthelongrun,RMBappreciationwillgeneratemoredevelopmentopportunities.Peoplewillfeelricher,itwillimproveChina'sstatusandinfluenceintheworldeconomyanditwillchangethecommoditystructureandtheflowofinvestment.Itwillalsohaveasignificantinfluenceonthestructureofdomesticproductionresources.
Firstofall,itwillaccelerateindustrialupgrading.Inamarketeconomy,thefluctuationoftheforeignexchangerateinvolvestheinternationalbalanceofincomesandexpensesandisanimportantpriceindicator.TheappreciationoftheRMBmeansthatthepriceofvariousdomesticresources,especiallylandandlabor,willgoupinrelativetermsandthiswillspeedupnecessaryadjustmentstothecommoditymixanddomesticindustry.RMBappreciationwillgraduallychangethevalueoftheinternationalanddomesticmarkets.Domesticenterpriseswillrelymoreonsalestothedomesticmarketsothatnationaleconomicgrowthislessdependentonexportdemandandamorereasonableindustrialstructurewillform.
Secondly,itwillpromotetechnicalinnovation.Inmanycountries,technicalinnovationreliesprimarilyonamarketmechanismwhichmakesgooduseofpriceasalever.China'sproductionprocessisenormouslycostlyintermsofresourcesandenergy,andlaboristoocheap.TheappreciationoftheRMBwillcauseanincreaseinthedomesticpricesofsuchthingsaslandandlaboraswellstimulatethedemandforinnovation.Productsforexportmustrelyontechnologicalinnovationtobemorecompetitiveinternationally.Inthedomesticmarket,enterprisesarealsoforcedtocompetethroughtechnologicalinnovation.Simplyspeaking,theappreciationoftheRMBwillcausetheformationofamarketenvironmentthatisconducivetospeedinguptechnologicalinnovation.
Thirdly,theappreciationoftheRMBwillbenefitthepeople.Ontheonehand,itwillmakeimportedproductsrelativelycheaper.ItwillalsobecheaperforChinesetotravelabroad.Thiswillincreaseconsumption.Ontheotherhand,itwillpushupthemarketpriceofdomesticfinancialassets,changingthefinancialmarketstructure.Ifotherconditionsdon'tchange,Chinesepeoplewillfeelricherasthevalueoftheirmoneygrowsandfurtherstimulatesdomesticdemand.OfgreaterstrategicsignificanceisthefactthattheappreciationoftheRMBwillmakethepriceChineselaborpricehigher.
RMBappreciationreflectsthesuccessofChineseeconomicdevelopmentafterreformandopeningup.ItisalsoanimportantturningpointinChina'ssocialandeconomicsituation.ThedownsidestoRMBappreciationshouldn'tbeoveremphasized.ThefluctuationoftheRMBistheresultofchangestothecurrenteconomicstructureandwillhaveanimportantimpactontheeconomicstructureofthefuture.Maintainingthestatusquoisshort-sightedandwillharmthelong-terminterestsofChina.ThebestchoiceistospeedupthetransformationoftheeconomicgrowthmodeandadapttotheappreciationofRMBtomakethemostfromtheprocess.
WiththeannouncementofreformingtheRMBexchangerateregimeonJuly21,2005,greatattentionhasbeenpaidtotheimpactsofRMB’sappreciationonChina’strade.SinceChinabeinginthetransitionfrompeggingtoamanagedfloatingregime,noexistingapproximatemodelandmethodcanbeutilizedtoinvestigatethisquestiondirectly.Inthispaper,scenarioanalysistechniqueisusedtogiveastudyonthisissue,coupledwiththeintroductionofthesubstitutedvaluables:
JapaneseyenandEuroexchangerate.OurresultsshowthatRMB’sappreciationwouldnotbringsevereeffectsonChina’stradein2005;however,thepossiblesustainedreductionofexportgrowthin2006shouldbepaidmoreattention.ItisalsonecessaryandurgenttopressforwardwiththereformofRMBexchangerateregime,andputuptherelatedsupportingpoliciestoavoidsuchsuddenfluctuationastheJapanesesituationafter“PlazaAccord”.
TheRMBexchangeratebecameahottopicaftertheannouncementofexchange
rateregimereformonJuly21,2005.Thenewregime,amanagedfloatingexchangerateregimebasedonmarketsupplyanddemandwithreferencetoabasketofcurrencies,allowsRMBtoriseby2%,withadaily0.3%tradingbandbasedonthepriceofthepreviousday.Withitsrapiddevelopment,China’seconomyhasbecomeanincreasinglyimportantelementintheglobaleconomicdevelopmentandintegration.Againstthisbackdrop,theimpactsofRMB’sappreciationonChina’stradeattractgreatattention.
BeforethisreformofRMB,therehasemergedavasttheoreticalliteratureconcentratedontheimpactsofRMB’srevaluation.However,relativelylittleresearchhasbeenundertakenontheempiricalanalysisofthisissue.Cyn-YoungPark(2005),aneconomistinAsianDevelopmentBank,analyzedmacroeconomicimpactofa“one-off”appreciationoftheRMBagainstthedollarusingtheOxfordEconomicForecastingmodel.Thisworkmayshedlightonthedynamicsbetweenglobalimbalancesandrevaluation.TheOEFmodelframeworkallowssimulationanalysesbasedontheglobaleconometricstructure,whichwillprovidesomequantitativeresultsfortheimpactsofarevaluationontheconcernedeconomies,suchasthePRC,Japan,US,andotherAsiancountries.Thestabilityofequilibriumstatemaybedamagedwhentheregimeshifts,which,however,cannotbestudiedinthismodel.Zhang,aresearcherinChineseAcademyoftheseresultssuggestedthattheimpactofarevaluationonChina’seconomymightchangeintheproportionofanappreciation’sscale.Infact,intheshortterm,thereasonablenessofthisproportionateresultshouldbedoubted.
Themainbodyofexistingliterature,however,hassofarmostlycenteredonquantitativediscussiondescribingtherelationbetweentradeandexchangerate.Therehasbeensurprisinglylittleempiricalworkthatfocusontheexchangerateregimeshift,especiallyfrompeggingtotheUSdollartoamanagedfloatingregime,Noexistingappropriatemodelormethodcanbefoundtosupportthiskindofresearchdirectly.Therefore,someindirectmethodsshouldbeexperimentedforstudyingthisissuewiththesubstitutevariablesintroduced.
Inthispaper,scenarioanalysistechniqueisusedtogiveasensitivityanalysisofChina’stradetotheappreciationofRMB.ThefirsttypeofscenariosisahypotheticscenariobeingrelatedwiththecurrentappreciationofRMBby2%;whilethesecondonethatbelongstothehistoricalscenarioisbasedonthehistoricalevent---theJapaneseyen’svariabilityaftersubscribing“PlazaAccord”.Theremainingpartofthispaperisorganizedasfollows.ThetheoryandmethodofscenarioanalysesareintroducedinSection2.ModelsandtheirevaluationareoutlinedinSection3.ForecastingresultsfromscenariosanalysesarepresentedinSection4.
Scenarioanalysis(CommitteeontheGlobalFinancialSystem,2000)isakindofstresstestingwhichservestoestimatepotentialextremelossesofaportfoliovalueandgivehelpfulsuggestionstothedecisionmakersinriskmanagementofacompanyorafinancialinstitution.Generally,scenarioisameanstoexplorethefutureeconomicsituation,andidentifywhatmighthappenandhowanorganizationcanactorreactuponfuturedevelopments.
TheRMB’sappreciationshouldundoubtedlygenerateextensiveandfar-reachingimplicationforChina’seconomy,especiallyforexports.Thisresearchshouldbebasedonestablishingandtestingeconometricmodels.Weestablishtheevaluatdmodelsforexportandtradingformsrespectively.Inthefollowingempiricalwork,thesemodelsareusedinthescenarioanalysisofChina’strade.ThesampledataarecollectedovertheperiodfromJan.2005.DataonexportandimportaretakenfromChina’sCustomsStatistics.TheexchangeratedataareobtainedfromtheUniversityofBritishColumbia’swebsite.
Inthispaper,thescenarioanalysisisusedtoanalyzetheeffectsofRMB’sappreciationonChina’stradein2005and2006.OurevidenceshowsthatChina’sexportswouldcontinuetokeepastrongincreasingtrendinthehypotheticalscenariobeingaone-offappreciationof2%.SeenfromthecurrentsituationaboutRMB,thesimilarfavorableresultsmaybeexpectedtooccurifRMBexchangerateregimewouldmarkasoundoperation.Therefore,weconcludethatChina’seaportswouldnotbeaffectedmuchbythecurrentappreciationofRMB,andwouldkeepanincreasingtrendin2005.Ontheotherhand,despitetherapiddevelopmentofChina’sexportswhichnotonlybenefitfromChina’sstrongeconomicdevelopment,butalsofromthestronginternationalcompetitivenessofexportgoods,therestillexisttheriskduetotheobvioussustaineddropofgrowthin2006,whichmayimpedetherapidgrowthofexports.Domesticdemandshouldalsobepromotedtocounteracttheriskfromthefluctuationofinternationalmarket.
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- 人民 升值 我国 外贸 影响 外文 翻译