中国印度和世界经济.docx
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中国印度和世界经济.docx
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中国印度和世界经济
China,IndiaandtheWorldEconomy
T.N.Srinivasan
Introduction
Amongcountrieswithatleast10millionpeoplein2003,ChinaandIndiahavebeengrowingveryrapidlysince1980.TheWorldBank(2005,Table4.1)reportsthatChina’sGDPgrewthefastestatanaveragerateof10.3%peryearduring1980-90,whileIndia’sgrewat5.7%.OfthefivecountriesthatgrewfasterthanIndiaduringthisdecade,nonedidsosubsequentlyduring1990-2003.Inthelatterperiod,China’sGDPagaingrewfastestattherateof9.6%onanaverageperyear,whileIndiaandMalaysia,at5.9%peryear,werethethirdmostrapidlygrowingcountries,withMozambiqueat7.1%beingthesecond.In2003-04,India’sGDPgrowthratejumpedto8.5%,fueledbyrecoveryfromaseveredroughtintheperviousyear.Theestimatedgrowthratefor2004-05is7.5%andtheprojectedratefor2005-06is8.1%(CSO,2006;RBI,2006).China’sGDPgrowthrates,basedonreviseddata,were10.1%and9.9%respectivelyin2004and2005andtheprojectedratefor2006is9.2%(WorldBank,2006,Table1).Thusbothcountriescontinuetogrowrapidly.
IntermsofabsolutelevelofGrossNationalIncome(GNI)atPurchasingPowerParity(PPP)exchangeratesin2003,China,with$6.4trillioninGNI,wassecondlargestintheWorld,secondonlytotheUnitedStatesat$11trillion.Indiawith$3trillioninGNIwasfourthaftertheU.S.,ChinaandJapan(3.6trillion)(WorldBank,2005,Table8.1).Itislikelythatin2005,IndiareplacedJapanasthecountrywiththethirdlargestGNI.IMF(2005,Box1.4)estimatesIndia’sshareinglobaloutputatPPPexchangeratestohaverisenfrom4.3%in1990to5.8%in2004,andIndia’sgrowthduring2003and2004tohaveaccountedforone-fifthofAsiangrowthandone-tenthofWorldgrowth,ascomparedtoChina’scontributionrespectivelyof53%and28%.ItshouldcausenosurprisethenthattherapidgrowthofChinaandIndiahashadsignificantimpactontheWorldeconomy,though,notunsurprisingly,tothesameextent.
Inwhatfollows,Section2describesthetwobasicchannels,namelyimportdemandandexportsupply,throughwhichthegrowthofacountryinfluencesgrowthoftherestoftheworldandviceversa.Section3,themainsectionofthepaper,isongrowthofChinaandIndiaanditsinfluenceontheWorldeconomy.ItbeginswithindicatorsoftheextentofintegrationofChinaandIndiawithglobalmarketsforgoodsandservices(Subsection3.1).Subsection3.2focusesonGlobalGDPGrowthandSharesofChinaandIndia.Subsection3.3isdevotedtosourcesandsustainabilityofgrowthusingconventionaldecompositionofgrowth,inanaccountingsense,intoitscomponentsoffactoraccumulation(Subsection3.3.1)andtotalfactorproductivity(Subsection3.3.2).Subsection3.4isdevotedtoforeigncapitalflowstoChinaandIndia.Section4looksattheplaceof,andcompetitionbetween,thetwocountriesinglobalmarketsfromadisaggregatedperspective.Section5concludeswithsomebriefremarksonhowpublicpolicycouldinfluencetheemerginggrowthscenariosandtheirimpacts.
2.InterdependenceofGrowthAmongTradingNations
ItistriviallyobviousthatiftheWorldconsistsofautarkiceconomies,therecannotbeanyinterdependenceingrowthacrosscountries.Thus,thegreateristheintegrationofaneconomywiththerestoftheWorldintradeingoodsandservices,investmentandfinances,thegreaterislikelytobeinterdependenceingrowth.Morespecifically:
i.Thesourcesofdemandfortheoutputofanygoodorserviceinthehomeeconomyareessentiallytwo,namely,domesticandforeign.Totheextentforeigndemandaccountsforasignificantshareoftotaldemand,clearlygrowthinforeignincome,ceterisparibus,willleadtogrowthinforeigndemandforhomeexportsandhencetogrowthinhomeincome.Thisistheexport-ledgrowthchannelforthedomesticeconomy.Asubstitutionofhomeexportsbydomesticsupplyabroadcouldbesourceofgrowthfortherestoftheworld.Thisisthehomeexportsubstitutionabroad(equivalently,foreignimportsubstitution)channelfortheforeigneconomy.
ii.Analogously,thesourcesofsupplyformeetingthedomesticdemandforanygoodinthehomeeconomyareagaintwo,namely,domesticandforeign.Totheextentforeignsupplyaccountsforasignificantshareoftotalsupply,growthinhomeincomes,ceterisparibus,willleadtogrowthinhomedemandforforeignexports.Thisisthehomeimport-ledgrowthchannelfortheglobaleconomy.Bythesametoken,substitutingforeignwithdomesticsupplycouldbeasourceofgrowthforthehomeeconomy,foralimitedtime,untilallofforeignsupplyiseliminated.Thisisthehomeimport-substitutionchannelforhomegrowth.
Theceterisparibusphrase,in(i)and(ii),coversmanythingsincluding:
thatpricesfacedattheborderbyexportersandimportersareunaffected,publicpoliciesthatcreateawedgebetweenborderanddomesticpricesremainthesame,andmorebroadly,supplyanddemandconditionsincludingtechnology,tastes,marketstructure,exchangeratepolicyregime,etc.remainthesameasgrowthtakesplace.Clearlythesearestrongassumptions.Forexample,thereisanon-goingdebateaboutwhetherglobalmacroeconomicimbalanceswillbereducedoreliminatedandaboutalternativeadjustmentpoliciesfordoingso.Theexchangerateandmacroeconomicoutcomesofalternativeadjustmentpolicieswillhaveimplicationsforglobalgrowthandinparticular,whetherChinaandIndiaoranyothercountrywillreplacetheU.S.asglobalgrowthengines(Williamson,2005).Thoughrelevant,thistopicandotherimplicationsofchangesinmacroeconomicpolicies(e.g.monetaryandfiscal)formacroeconomicstabilityandgrowthwillnotbecoveredinthispaper.However,changesinpolicyregimesleadingtotradeandinvestmentliberalizationaswellastechnologicalchanges(e.g.informationtechnologyrevolution)couldhavesignificantimpactsbothonthegrowthofindividualcountriesandindustriesandongrowthoftheworldeconomy.Iwillattempttoaccountforsuchchangestotheextentpossiblegivenwhatisknownorprojected.
3GrowthofChinaandIndiaanditsInfluenceontheWorldEconomy
3.1IndicatorsoftheExtentofIntegrationinWorldMarketsforGoodsandServices
AnoverallindicatorofintegrationistheextentofinternationaltradeinthedomesticeconomyasmeasuredbytheshareofexportsandimportsinGDPandintheglobaleconomyasmeasuredbytheshareofacountry’sexportsandimportsinglobalexportsandimports.TherelevantdataareinTable1below.
TABLE1
MeasuresofIntegrationwiththeWorldEconomy
PercentofTotal
1983
1994
2004
ShareinGDPofExportsofGoodsandServices
China
n.a.
181
342
India
n.a.
71
142
ShareinGDPofImportsofGoodsandServices
China
n.a.
141
322
India
n.a.
91
162
CountryShareinWorldExportsofMerchandise
China
1.2
2.8
6.7
India
0.5
0.6
0.8
CountryShareinWorldImportsofMerchandise
China
1.1
2.6
6.1
India
0.7
0.6
1.1
CountryShareinWorldExportsofCommercialServices
China
n.a.
1.6
2.9
India
n.a.
0.6
1.9
CountryShareinWorldImportsofCommercialServices
China
n.a.
1.5
3.4
India
n.a.
0.8
2.0
1Sharesarefor1990
2Sharesarefor2003.WithnewlyrevisedGDPdataforChinashowinghigherlevelsofGDP,theshareswouldbesomewhatlower.
Sources:
(1)ForsharesinGDP,WorldBank(2005a),Table4.9
(2)ForsharesinWorldTrade,WTO(2005),TablesI.5andI.7
ItisclearfromTable1thatalthoughbothcountrieshavebecomeincreasinglyintegratedwiththeWorldEconomy,Chinahasgonemuchfarther,evenallowingforthefactthatChinastartedtheprocessofintegrationatleastadecadeearlier.ThuswithtwiceasmuchormoreshareofexportsandimportsinGDP,morethanseventimes(fivetimes)theshareinWorldmerchandiseexports(imports),Chinaisbetterpositionedin2004forinfluencing(andalsobeinginfluenced)bygrowthoftheWorldeconomy.Interestingly,duringtheperiod1990-2003whiletheshareofexportsandimportsinIndia’sGDPalmostdoubled,theincreaseinshareinitsWorldmerchandiseexports,proportionately,wasfarless.ThankstoitssuccessintheITservicesector,India’sshareinWorldexportsofcommercialservicestripledduringthesameperiod.ItwouldseemthatinIndia’scase,withthepossibleexceptionofservicestheeffectofgreaterintegrationislargelyone-wayanddomestic,inthesenseofitsraisingtherateofGDPgrowthandtheshareoftradeindomesticGDP,ratherthanIndia’smorerapidGDPgrowthinfluencingglobalGDPgrowthsignificantly.
3.2SharesofChinaandIndiainGlobalGDPanditsGrowth
ThemeasuresofintegrationinTable1ineffectproxythepotentialforthegrowthofChinaandIndiatocontributetogrowthintheWorldEconomy-putanotherway,ifthesemeasureswerezero,sothatChinaandIndiawereautarkic,thenobviouslytheirgrowthwouldhavenoeffectonthegrowthoftheothercountriesoftheWorld.Butontheotherhand,evenifpositive,themeasuresdonotnecessarilyimplythatthegrowthofthetwocountrieshadorwouldhave,significantimpactonglobalGDPgrowthoronthegrowthoflowandmiddleincomecountries(oralternativelytothegrowthofdevelopingAsia).Table2,basedonWorldBankdata,quantifiestheimpactinanaccounting(nottobeconfusedwithcausal)sense.Table3isfromJorgensonandVu(2005)whousepurchasingpowerparitybasedexchangerates.
TABLE2
ShareinGlobalGDP(%)
ShareinGDPofLowandMiddleIncomeCountries(%)
GrowthRateofGDP(%)
ShareinGrowthofWorldGDP(%)
ShareinGrowthRateofLowandMiddleIncomeCountries(%)
1990
2003
1990
2
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