GrowthHistory(宏观经济学-加州大学-詹姆斯·布拉.pptx
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GrowthHistory(宏观经济学-加州大学-詹姆斯·布拉.pptx
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,CHAPTER5,TheRealityofEconomicGrowth:
HistoryandProspect,1,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,Questions,Whatismoderneconomicgrowth?
Whatwasthepost-1973productivityslowdown?
Whatwereitscauses?
Istheproductivityslowdownnowover?
Whyaresomenationsso(relatively)richandothernationsso(relatively)poor?
2,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,Questions,Whatpoliciescanmakeeconomicgrowthfaster?
Whataretheprospectsforsuccessfulandrapideconomicdevelopmentintomorrowsworld?
3,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,LookingBackintoDeepTime,Upuntil1500,therehadbeenalmostzerogrowthofoutputperworkerAfter1800,weseelargesustainedincreasesinworldwidestandardsoflivingpopulationgrowthacceleratedoutputpercapitagrew,4,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,Table5.1-EconomicGrowththroughDeepTime,5,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,Figure5.1-WorldPopulationGrowthsince1000,6,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,PremodernEconomic“Growth”,ThomasR.Malthusfirstacademicprofessorofeconomicsintroducedtheideathatincreasesintechnologyinevitablyrunintonaturalresourcescarcityimpliesthatincreasesintechnologyleadtoanincreaseinthesizeofthepopulationbutnottoanincreaseinthestandardofliving,7,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,TheEndoftheMalthusianAge,Overtime,therateoftechnologicalprogressroseby1500,itwassufficientlyhighsothatnaturalresourcescarcitycouldnotsurpassitsustainedincreasesinthepopulationandtheproductivityoflaborfollowed,8,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,TheDemographicTransition,Asmaterialstandardsoflivingrisefarabovesubsistence,countriesundergoademographictransitionbirthratesrisedeathratesfallbirthratesfall,9,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,Figure5.2-StylizedPictureoftheDemographicTransition,10,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,TheDemographicTransition,Intheworldtoday,notallcountrieshavegonethroughtheirdemographictransitionsNigeria,Iraq,Pakistan,andtheCongoareprojectedtohavepopulationgrowthratesgreaterthan2%peryearoverthenextgeneration,11,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,Figure5.3-ExpectedPopulationGrowthRates,1997-2015,12,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,Figure5.3-ExpectedPopulationGrowthRates,1997-2015,13,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,TheIndustrialRevolution,TheindustrialrevolutionbegantheeraofmoderneconomicgrowthnewtechnologicalleapsrevolutionizedindustriesandgeneratedmajorimprovementsinlivingstandardsGreatBritainwasthecenteroftheindustrialrevolutionEnglishbecametheworldsdefactosecondlanguage,14,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,TheIndustrialRevolution,ThenewtechnologieswerenotconfinedtoGreatBritainspreadrapidlytowesternEuropeandtheUnitedStatesspreadlessrapidlytosouthernandeasternEuropeandJapan,15,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,Figure5.4-IndustrializedAreasoftheWorld,1870,16,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,AmericanLong-RunGrowth,1800-1973,GrowthinthesecondhalfofthenineteenthcenturywasfasterthanithadbeeninthefirsthalfGrowthacceleratedfurtherintheearlypartofthetwentiethcenturyasecondwaveofindustrializationoccurredfromnewinventionsandinnovations,17,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,AmericanLong-RunGrowth,1800-1973,GrowthslowedslightlyduringtheGreatDepressionandWorldWarII1.4percentperyearfrom1929to1950Growthacceleratedfrom1950to1973,18,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,Figure5.5-U.S.MeasuredEconomicGrowth:
RealGDPperWorker1995Prices,1890-1995,19,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,AmericanLong-RunGrowth,1800-1973,Manyeconomistsbelievethatofficialestimatesofoutputperworkeroverstateinflationandunderstaterealeconomicgrowthby1percentperyearnationalincomeaccountantshaveahardtimevaluingtheboosttoproductivityandstandardsoflivinggeneratedbynewinventions,20,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,AmericanLong-RunGrowth,1800-1973,Structuralchangesalsooccurredlargedropintheproportionofthelaborforceworkingasfarmersoccurrednewmethodsoftravelweredevelopedlargenumberofinnovativetechnologiesandbusinesspracticeswereadopted,21,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,AmericanLong-RunGrowth,1800-1973,TheU.S.becametheworldsleader(intermsoftechnology)duringthetwentiethcenturybecausetheU.S.hadanexceptionalcommitmenttoeducationtheU.S.wasthelargestmarketintheworldtheU.S.wasextraordinarilyrichinnaturalresources,22,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,AmericanEconomicGrowthSince1973,Between1973and1995measuredoutputperworkergrewatonly0.6percentperyearTheothermajorindustrialeconomiesinwesternEurope,JapanandCanadaalsoexperiencedaslowdowninproductivity,23,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,Table5.3-TheMagnitudeofthePost-1973ProductivitySlowdownintheG-7Economies,24,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,AmericanEconomicGrowthSince1973,Suggestedcausesoftheproductivityslowdownincludeenvironmentalprotectionmeasuresincreasedproblemsofeconomicmeasurementthebabyboomgenerationthetriplingofworldoilpricesin1973Theactualcauseoftheproductivityslowdownremainsamystery,25,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,AmericanEconomicGrowthSince1973,SlowereconomicgrowthhasmadeAmericansfeelmuchlesswelloffthantheyhadexpectedthattheywouldbeforsomeworkers,thepost-1973productivityslowdownhasbeenaccompaniedbystagnantordecliningrealwagesincreasedincomeinequalityhasalsooccurred,26,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,Figure5.6-MeasuredRealMeanHouseholdIncome,byQuintile,27,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,AmericanEconomicGrowthSince1973,Since1995,productivitygrowthintheU.S.hasacceleratedtoapaceof2.1percentperyearInvestmentbeganrisingin1992businessfixedinvestmentgrewatalmostthreetimestherateofGDPmuchoftheadditionalinvestmenthasgonetopurchasecomputersandrelatedequipment,28,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,ModernEconomicGrowtharoundtheWorld,TheindustrialcoreoftheworldeconomyexperiencedalargeincreaseinitslevelofmaterialproductivityandlivingstandardsduringthenineteenthandtwentiethcenturiesElsewherethegrowthofproductivitylevelsandlivingstandardswasslowerTheworldhasbecomeamoreandmoreunequalplace,29,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,Figure5.7-WorldDistributionofIncomeToday,SelectedCountries,30,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,Figure5.7-WorldDistributionofIncomeToday,SelectedCountries,31,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,ModernEconomicGrowtharoundtheWorld,TheU.S.hasnotbeenthefastest-growingeconomyintheworldanumberofothercountriesatdifferentlevelsofindustrialization,development,andmaterialproductivityacenturyagohavenowconvergedtheircurrentlevelsofproductivity,economicstructures,andstandardsoflivingareveryclosetothoseoftheU.S.,32,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,Figure5.8-ConvergenceamongtheG-7Economies:
OutputperCapitaasaShareofU.S.Level,33,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,ModernEconomicGrowtharoundtheWorld,TheeconomiesthathaveconvergedbelongtotheOrganizationforEconomicCooperationandDevelopment(OECD)groupofcountriesthatgaveorreceivedaidundertheMarshallPlantohelprebuildorreconstructafterWorldWarII,34,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,ModernEconomicGrowtharoundtheWorld,TheOECDcountriesadoptedacommonsetofeconomicpolicieslargeprivatesectorsfreeofgovernmentregulationofpricesinvestmentwithitsdirectiondeterminedbyprofit-seekingbusinesseslargesocialinsurancesystemstoredistributeincomegovernmentscommittedtoavoidingmassunemployment,35,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,ModernEconomicGrowtharoundtheWorld,TheOECDcountriesendedupwithmixedeconomiesmarketsdirecttheflowofresourcesgovernmentsstabilizetheeconomy,providesocial-insurancesafetynets,andencourageentrepreneurshipandenterprise,36,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,ModernEconomicGrowtharoundtheWorld,AstheOECDcountriesbecamericher,theycompletedtheirdemographictransitionsThepolicyemphasisonfreeenterpriseboostedinvestmentSteady-statecapital-outputratiosroseDiffusionoftechnologyfromtheU.S.occurred,37,Copyright2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.,ModernEconomicGrowtharoundtheWorld,EconomicgrowthhasnotbeenlimitedtoOECDcountriessinceWorldWarII,severalcountriesineastAsiahaveexperiencedstrongergrowththanhaseverbeenseenanywhereinworldhistorythesesucc
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- GrowthHistory 宏观经济学 加州大学 詹姆斯