阅读 The economist 经济学家杂志英语文章.docx
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阅读Theeconomist经济学家杂志英语文章
Theeconomist
GermanyEurope'sengine
WhyGermanyneedstochange,bothforitsownsakeandforothers
ELSEWHEREintheworld,Europeiswidelyregardedasacontinentwhoseeconomyisrigidandsclerotic,whosepeoplearework-shyandwelfare-dependent,andwhoseindustrialbaseisantiquatedanddeclining—thebrokencogsandleversthatcondemntheoldworldtoagloomyfuture.Aswithmostclichés,thereissometruthinit.Yetasourspecialreportinthisweek’sissueshows,theachievementsofGermany,Europe’sbiggesteconomy,tellaratherdifferentstory.
AdecadeagoGermanywasthesickmanofEurope,plaguedbyslowgrowthandhighunemployment,withbigmanufacturersmovingoutinadesperatesearchforlowercosts.Now,despitetherecession,unemploymentislowerthanitwasfiveyearsago.AlthoughGermanyrecentlycededitsplaceastheworld’sbiggestexportertoChina,itsexportingprowessremainsundimmed.AsashareofGDP,itscurrent-accountsurplusthisyearwillbebiggerthanChina’s.
Thisfeatgivesthelietothepicture,commoninAmericaandAsia,ofEuropeasawashed-upcontinentincapableofchange.And,fortherestofEurope,thereisalottobesaidforhavingastrongeconomyatthecontinent’sgeographicalandpoliticalcentre.YetGermany’ssuccessisparadoxicallyalsocausingproblemsforitsneighbours—problemswhichthey,andGermany,needtoaddress.
Theoldandthenew
Germany’simpressiveflexibilityistheconsequenceofoldvirtuescombinedwithnewones.Theoldconsensus-buildingmanagementsystemhelpedemployerskeepunionsonsidewhencostsneededtobehelddown.ThefamousMittelstand(smallandmedium-sizedfirms,oftenfamily-owned)wentthroughitsoperations,stepbystep,judgingwhattodoinGermany,whattosendabroadandwhattooutsource.
Atthesametime,economicpolicytookanew,liberalising,direction.TheSchrödergovernmentintroducedreformstothelabourmarketandwelfaresystemsin2003-04;spurredonbythose,andbycompetitivepressuresfromEurope’ssinglecurrency,Germanbusinessruthlesslyhelddownrealwages.Unitlabourcostsfellbyanannualaverageof1.4%in2000-08inGermany,comparedwithadeclineof0.7%inAmericaandrisesof0.8%and0.9%inFranceandBritainrespectively.Althoughlastyear’srecessionhitGermanyhard,itseconomyisinmuchbettershapenowthanitwasadecadeago—apointthatshouldbenotedinFrance,wherePresidentNicolasSarkozyhastakentorailingagainstoutsourcing,andinsouthernEurope,whichbendsoverbackwardstopreserveovergenerouswagesandrestrictedlabourmarkets.
Germanyisrightlyproudofitsabilitytocontrolcostsandkeeponexporting.ButitalsoneedstorecognisethatitssuccesshasbeenwoninpartattheexpenseofitsEuropeanneighbours.GermansliketobelievethattheymadeahugesacrificeingivinguptheirbelovedD-marktenyearsago,buttheyhaveintruthbenefitedmorethananyoneelsefromtheeuro.AlmosthalfofGermany’sexportsgotoothereuro-areacountriesthatcannolongerresorttodevaluationtocounterGermancompetitiveness.
WhileAnglo-Saxonswerethrowingmoneyaround,Germanskeptsaving.Domesticinvestmenthasnotkeptpace.TheresultofGermans’prowessatexporting,combinedwiththeirreluctancetospendandinvest,hasbeenhugetradesurpluses.Germany’sexcesssavingshavebeenfunnelledabroad—oftenintosubprimeassetsinAmericaandgovernmentbondsinsuchcountriesasGreece.ItwouldbeabsurdtomaintainthataprudentGermanyisresponsibleforGreece’sprofligacyorSpain’spropertybubble(thoughafewheroiceconomistshavearguedthis).Butitistruethat,withinasingle-currencyzone,habitualsurpluscountriestendtobematchedbyhabitualdeficitones.
Givespendingachance
Imbalancescannotbesustainedforever,whethertheyaredeficitsorsurpluses.Yetsurpluscountriestendtoseethemselvesasvirtuousanddeficitcountriesasvenal—theimplicationbeingthattheburdenofadjustmentshouldfallontheborrowers.Germany’sresponsetothetroublesofGreece,Spainandothereuro-areacountrieshasfollowedjustsuchaline.Abail-outforGreece,oncetaboo,isnowbeingdebated—andGermanministershaveevencomeoutinfavourofaputativeEuropeanMonetaryFund(seearticle).ButtheideathatGermanyshoulditselfseektoadjust,throughlowersavingandhigherconsumptionandinvestment,stillseemsunacceptabletoAngelaMerkel’sgovernment.
ItiscertainlytruethatGermany’sneighbourshaveagreatdealofworktodo.France,ItalyandSpainneedtofollowGermanyinlooseninguptheirlabourmarkets;Italy,SpainandGreeceneedtotightentheirpublicfinances.ButGermanyalsoneedstopushaheadwithliberalisation.Itswebofregulationsistooconstricting;itsjobprotectionistoorigid;itshealth,welfareandeducationsystemsstillneedbigdosesofchange;itsservicesectorisunderdeveloped.Youdonothavetobeafree-marketzealottothinkthatitistoohardtostartanewbusinessinGermany,ortoworrythatafattax“wedge”topayforhealthcareandwelfarereduceslow-paidservicejobs.NordoallthechangesGermanyneedstomakemeancuttinggovernmentback.Toofewwomenareinfull-timework,partlybecausechild-caresupportislacking.Thecountry’sdemographicprospectsaredire.
AboldprogrammeofGermanstructuralreformswoulddomuchtoboostconsumptionandinvestment—and,inturn,toraiseGermany’sGDPgrowth,whichremainsdisturbinglyfeeble.Germanycanalsoaffordgrowth-boostingtaxcutswithoutruiningitspublicfinances.IfonlyGermanywouldliftitshead,itwouldseethatthisisinitsownwiderinterest,bothbecauseitwouldbegoodforGermanconsumersandbecauseitwouldhelptheeuroareatowhichitishitched.Europe’ssinglecurrency,liketheEuropeanUnionitself,owesmuchtopastGermanleadership.Whenthatgoesmissing,boththecurrencyandtheclubtendtosuffer—andGermanyisforemostamongthelosers.
Economics
FreeexchangeEconomicdata
Newsflash
LET'Ssurveytheeconomicnewscomingoutthismorning.First,joblessclaimsheldsteady,moreorless,fallingslightly468,000.Thefour-weekmovingaveragetickedupwardabitto475,500.It'snicetoseethattheupwardtrendthatemergedinFebruaryhasleveledoff,butit'sverydistressingtonotethatclaimshavebeenstuckattheircurrentlevelfornearlyfourmonths.Thewaitforthedipbacktonormallevelscontinues.
Inbrighternews,theyear-over-yearincreaseinforeclosurefilingswasonly6%inFebruary,thesmallestincreasesincethebustbeganbackin2006.Still,justover300,000foreclosurefilingswerereportedforthemonth,whichactuallymarkedaslightincreaseoverJanuary'snumbers.TheWallStreetJournalcreditsmortgagemodificationprogrammeswithslowingthepaceofforeclosuregrowth,butclearlythecrisisrollson.
Andthenthere'sthelatestnewsonAmerica'scurrentaccountdeficit.Itfell,byabout$2.6billion,inthemonthofJanuary.Thedropreflects,amongotherthings,a$1.5billiondeclineinautomobileimports,anda$900milliondeclineinpetroleumimports.ButfromJanuaryof2009toJanuaryof2010,petroleumaddednearly$8billiontothetotalcurrentaccountdeficit,whichitselfincreasedbylessthan$2billion—thehugeincreaseinpetroleumimportsentirelyoffsetimprovementselsewhere.
Whythehugeleapinpetroleum'scontributiontothedeficit?
Well,inJanuaryof2009,thepriceofoilhadfallentonear$40perbarrel,aproductofcrateringglobaldemand.Recoveryfortheeconomymeantrecoveryforoilprices;abarrelofoilnowcostsabout$82.
Meanwhile,America'sdeficitwithChinafell11%,year-over-year,inJanuaryafterdeclining9.2%inDecember.Theimprovementscontinue,inotherwords.Butthenthere'sthis:
Chineseimportsincreased45percentoverlastyear,ledbycrudeoil,afterfactoriessteppedupproduction.
There'sthatreturningoildemand,andIdon'timagineitwillbegoingawayanytimesoon.Andthere'sthetargetforconcernabouttheAmericancurrentaccountdeficit,andit'soneAmericanpolicymakerscanaddress.Ratherthancomplainingabouttherenminbi,AmericanleadersmightfocusonthefactthatAmericanpetroltaxesaredramaticallylowerthanthoseinotherdevelopednations,andpercapitapetrolconsumptiondramaticallyhigher.
Businessthisweek
EADS,theEuropeanmakerofAirbusaircraft,andNorthropGrummandecidednottoproceedwiththeirjointbidfora$35billioncontracttobuildnewflyingtankersforAmerica’sairforce.ThepaircriticisedthePentagon’sselectioncriteria,which,theymaintain,favourBoeing’srivalproject.Theprocessforawardingacontracttoreplacetheageingfleetoftankershasrumbledonforyears.AnaircraftbasedonthedesignoftheAirbusA330wastenderedbyEADSandNorthropandchosenbytheairforcein2008,onlyforthedecisiontoberescindedafteranofficialprotestfromBoeingovertheevaluationofthebids.
EADSreportedalossof€763m($1.1billion)for2009andwillnotissueadividendforthefirsttime.TheEuropeanaerospacecompanytooka€1.8billionchargeoncostoverrunsrelatedtoitsdelayedA400Mmilitarytransportplane.
SturmundDrang
AngelaMerkel,theGermanchancellor,gaveherbackingtoproposedcurbsoncredit-defaultswapsandotherfinancialtoolsthatspeculateingovernmentdebt,callingforthe“fastestpossible”implementationofnewregulations.(Americaisalsoconsideringrestrictions.)SomeinEuropeblamespeculationinsovereign-debtmarketsforcontributingtoGreece’sfinancialcrisis.Seearticle
Therewasalukewarmreaction,however,totheideafloatedbytheGermangovernmentofestablishinga
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