Urban Regulation and the New Economy.docx
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Urban Regulation and the New Economy.docx
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UrbanRegulationandtheNewEconomy
NIMBYsandKnowledge:
UrbanRegulationandthe"NewEconomy"
By
StephenMalpezzi†
Draft,August29,2001
†TheCenterforUrbanLandEconomicsResearch
TheUniversityofWisconsin
975UniversityAvenue
Madison,WI53706-1323
smalpezzi@bus.wisc.edu
http:
//wiscinfo.doit.wisc.edu/realestate
StephenMalpezziisassociateprofessor,andWangardFacultyScholar,inthe
DepartmentofRealEstateandUrbanLandEconomics,andanassociatememberofthe
DepartmentofUrbanandRegionalPlanning,oftheUniversityofWisconsin-Madison.
Thispaperispreliminaryandwillberevised.Statisticalresultsinparticularmaywell
change.Commentsandcriticismsareparticularlywelcome.Pleasecontactmefora
copyoftherevisedversionofthepaper.
ThankstoVickiElmer,DennisGale,JohnLandis,JohnQuigley,andotherparticipantsat
theAmericanRealEstateandUrbanEconomicsAssociationMidyear2001special
sessiononHousingandtheNewEconomyforcommentsandsuggestions.Remaining
errorsaretheresponsibilityoftheauthor.
2
1.Introduction
Thepurposeofthispaperistoexplorepossiblerelationshipsbetweencertain
aspectsofwhatusedto1becalledthe“NewEconomy,”inparticulartheeconomic
structureofametropolitanarea,andsomeaspectsofthehousingmarket,namely
NIMBYism2andlanduseregulation;housingprices,andurbanform(“sprawl”).
Ifwetookthetimetofullydiscusswhatismeantbythe"NewEconomy,"orthe
"NextEconomy,"orthe"KnowledgeEconomy,"we'dquicklyuseupmostofthepages
eventhemostpatientreaderwouldplowthrough.Sofromthispointon,we’llbe
deliberatelyfuzzy;we'llusetheterm“HighTech,”droppingthequotes,toloosely
characterizelocalities(metropolitanareas,inthispaper)thathaveabove-averageshares
oftheireconomydevotedtoactivitiesthathave(orarethoughttohave)hightechnology
content,whateverthatmeans.Ofcourse,whenweusespecificmeasuresof“tech-ness,”
we’lldescribethesemorefully,butthereisnoconsensusonexactlywhatthisterm
meansorhowtooperationalizeit.Wewilltrytoexamineseveralalternativemeasures,
toseeifanyofourrefractoryfindingsarerobust.
Thispaperislargelydiscursiveanddescriptive.Someplotsandsomesingle-
equationregressionmodelsarepresented,butthespecificationsofthelatterarelargely
adhoc;wehavenotdevelopedanyformalmodelsbasedonoptimizingbehaviorof
producersorconsumers.Considerthepaperasanexerciseinexploratorydataanalysis.
Ouraimistodevelopsomestylizedfacts,andtoframesomehypothesesthatcanbe
1“Usedto?
”Howquicklyfadscomeandgo,whetherwe’retalkingpopeconomicsjargonorNASDAQ
bubbles.DonNicholshasarguedfortheterm“NextEconomy.”
2NIMBYisacommonacronymfor“NotInMyBackYard.”Otheracronymsspawnedbyresistanceto
oneformofdevelopmentoranotherincludeLocallyUndesirableLandUse(LULU)andNotonPlanet
Earth(NOPE).
examinedmorerigorouslyinfutureresearch.Inthisfairlylooseway,weexaminethe
followingquestions:
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
WhatcharacterizesHighTechlocations(metroareas),otherthan
theobvious(their“industrialorganization”oreconomicstructure)?
Forexample,isthereanydataconsistentwiththestorythathigh-
amenitylocationsattractfootloosehightechindustries?
Whatrole
doeseducationplay?
AreHighTechlocations(metroareas)systematicallygrowingand
developingfasterthantherestofthecountry?
Forthatmatter,
howimportantisindustrialstructuregenerallyasapredictorof
development?
AreHighTechmetroareascharacterizedbymorestringent
developmentregulationthanotherareas?
DoHighTechlocationshavesystematicallyhigherhousingprices
thantherestofthecountry?
Canwedisentangletheeffectsof
fastergrowth,regulation,andotherdeterminants?
AreHighTechlocationssystematicallymoredecentralizedor
“sprawling”thanothermetropolitanareas?
Theplanofthepaper,roughlyfollowingourfivequestions,isasfollows.In
sectiontwo,wewillbrieflydiscusssomemeasurementissues,regardingfirst
NIMBYism,ormorespecifically,itsmanifestation,developmentregulation;and
secondly,the"high-tech-ness"ofalocaleconomy.Withthisasprologue,wewill
examinethecorrelatesofafewmeasuresof“tech-ness,”focusingparticularlyona
measurefromDeVol(1999).Next,wewillexaminewhetherHighTechregionsarein
factgrowingfaster.ThefourthsectionexplainstherelationshipbetweenNIMBYismand
HighTech,andgrowthgenerally.Thefifthsectionexplainstherelationshipbetween
thesephenomenaandhouseprices.Finally,wepresentsomeinitialevidenceonthe
relationshipbetweenthestructureofthelocaleconomyandurbanform.
2
2.“HighTech”andthe“NewEconomy”
Ofcourse,humankindhashadmany“neweconomies”overhistory.Consider,
forexample,someoftheinnovationshumankindhasexperiencedsincethe“invention”
ofagriculturecirca10,000yearsagoandtheadventofcivilization.Formostofthelast
10,000years,theexpectedrateofgrowthoveranyindividual’slifetimewas,toseveral
decimalplaces,zero.3Ahighlystylizedlongrunpercapitagrowthratecanbe
“estimated”asfollows.Theworstbasket-caseeconomiestodayhaveGDPpercapitaof
around$300(WorldBank1999).Verycrudely,incomespercapitainathen-richcountry
likeBritainorHollandmighthavebeensomethinglike$2,000in1800(Bairoch1988,
Maddison1983,Kindleberger1996).4Letusbeconservativeandestimatepercapita
income10,000yearsagoat$100.Thisimpliesverylongrungrowthrateof0.03percent
perannumfrom8000B.C.tocirca1800.Thiscomparestomoderngrowthratesthat
averageabout2percentperannum.
Anotherneweconomywasthefirstindustrialrevolution,circa1880,basedon
textileweavingandsteam;incomepercapitabegantogrowasfastas1percentaround
thatperiod.5Thesecondindustrialrevolution,basedonsteel,electricityandtheinternal
3Ofcourse,postulating“anexpectedgrowthrateofzerooveranindividual’slifetime”isnotthesameas
claimingtherewasneveranygrowthinthefirst9,500yearsorsoofcivilization.First,therewassome
modestrateofgrowth,aslaterinthisparagraph.Second,eveninancienttimestherewereexamplesof
fastergrowthbyselectedpeoplesinselectedperiods.SeeJones(1988)andCipolla(1993)forexamples
anddiscussion.
4[Needtosurveymoreliteraturefornextdraft,thesenumbersareveryspeculativeinanycase].
5Weshouldnotethatthereisdebateabouttheexactnatureoftheindustrialrevolution,includingwhetherit
wastrulyarevolutionatall,ormerelyaslightaccelerationofpreviousgrowth.See,forexample,Coleand
Deane(1962)andCrafts(1983).
3
combustionengine,phasedoutinthefirsthalfofthe20thcentury.Growthrates
acceleratedtosomethinglike2percent.
Itisnotmuchappreciatedthattheaveragegrowthrateinthefirsthalfofthe20th
centurywasaboutthesameasthegrowthrateinthesecondhalfofthe20thcentury,
roughly2percentpercapitaintheU.S.(Ofcourse,somenon-U.S.economieshave
grownmuchfasterthan2percentoverseveraldecades,seeMalpezzi2001for
discussion.)Thebigdifferenceingrowthratesbetweenthetwohalvesofthe20th
centuryisnotabouttheaveragerateofgrowth,itisaboutthevariance.Figure1shows
thedecline.TheannualrealgrowthrateinGDPpercapitafrom1890-1950was2.0
percent,andfrom1950to1999wasslightlyhigher,at2.2percent.Butthestandard
deviationofannualrealgrowthratesinGDPpercapitafrom1890-1950was7.2percent,
andfrom1950to1999wasonly2.3percent.
Fromthehousingperspective,wecandateseveral“newhousingeconomies”
fromthefirstpermanenthousingcirca8000B.C.6tosuchinnovationsasbrick(Sumeria,
circa5000B.C.?
[check]),balloonframeconstruction(1850),pipedwater,andthe
eponymousinventionofThomasCrapper(circa1870?
).7AccordingtoWitoldRybzinski
(1987),theDutchcirca1400wereresponsiblefortheinventionoftheconceptof“home”
asaprivatefamilyspacewithitscurrentconnotationofhearthandrefuge.
Atonelevel,therecanbehardlyanydoubtthattechnologyaffectsdevelopment.
Theearlydevelopmentofcitiestenthousandyearsagowastiedtotechnological
improvementsinagriculturethatpermittedatleastafewmembersofsocietytoengagein
6[Currentlysearchingmoreliteratureonthishistory;bibliographicsuggestionsmuchappreciated].
7ThomasCrapper,plumber,didholdseveralplumbingpatentsbuthisinventionoftheflushtoiletis,
unfortunately,myth.AndrecentlyChinesearcheologistshaveunearthedwhatmayhavebeentheworld’s
firstwatercloset,circa100B.C.See.
4
activitiesotherthangatheringenoughcaloriestostayalive.Manystudieshaveexplored
theroleofsuchtechnicalinnovationsasthesteamengine,electricity,andrailroadsinthe
historyofeconomicdevelopmentintheUnitedStates.
AdamsandSveikauskas(1993)demonstratethelinkagesbetweenacademic
science,appliedresearchanddevelopment,andeconomicdevelopment.Amongother
measures,theyusethenumberofindustryscientistsasameasureofR&Dandacademic
papersascrudemeasuresofscientificoutput.Theirfindingsdemonstratethatfirst
scienceandatalaterstageR&D"areapowerfulmoveroftheentirestructuralproduction
…andtheyappeartobeapotentforceresponsibleforcapitaldeepeningintheU.S.and
othereconomies."OtherstudiessuchasJaffe(1989),BeesonandM
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