商英.docx
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商英.docx
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商英
1.ChangesinthePatternsofInternationalTrade
MainContents
•1.GlobalTrends2.CommodityPatterns3.TheTradeNetwork4.WhyTradePatternsareChanging
GlobalTrends
•1.physicalvolume2.invalueterms
CommodityPatterns
•1.intermsofvalue2.agriculturalproducts&mineralsotherthanfuels3.manufactures4.services
AgriculturalProducts
–droppedsharplyfromnear50%in1955tojustover22%in1995,andlessnowadays
–agriculturalexportsconsistoffoodstuffs&agriculturalrawmaterials
•foodproductsaccountingfor75%,mainlycereals,meat,fish,coffee,sugar&freshfruits
•theprincipalagriculturalrawmaterialsinworldtradefrom13%in1955tojustunder3%in1995:
oilseeds,pulp,rubber,hidesandfurs,cotton&wool
Manufactures
•havelongbeenthelargestcomponentofworldtrade,74%ofworldtradein1995comparedwith45%in1955,morethroughincreasesinvolumethaninprices.
–machinery&transportationequipment:
accountforhalfthetrade
–customergoods:
accountfor20%
–therest:
nonferrousmetals,iron&steel,chemicals&othersemi-manufactures
Services
•Servicetototaloutputfrom53%in1970to67%in1995.
•In1997,theservicesectoraccountedforoverthree-quartersoftotalemployment,whereasmanufacturingemployedonly18%ofthelaborforce.Moreover,overtheperiodfrom1980to1997,employmentinservicesroseby1.2%ayear,whereasemploymentinmanufacturingfellby2.7%ayear.
TheTradeNetwork
•largebulkofexports&importsindevelopedcountries(two-thirdsofworldtrade)
theindustrialareasaccountfor62%ofexports,66%ofimports
•developingcountries:
from21%in1963to28%in1995
•principalchangeingeographicalpatternsince1973
theincreasedimportanceoftraditionaloil-exportingdevelopingcountries,accountfortwothirdsoffuelexports
•theEuropeanUnionisthelargesttradingarea,accountingformorethanonethirdofexports,morethanhalfofthistradeisintra-communitytrade.
•U.S.exports:
isonly10%ofGNP
•Japan’sexports:
about11%ofGNP
WhyTradePatternsareChanging
•1.Engels’law2.pricetrends3.technologicaldevelopments4.expansionofmultinationalenterprises
Engels’law
•Aspersonalincomesrise,consumerexpendituresforfoodgrowatalesserrate.Asincomesriseconsumerswillspendincreasingsharesoftheirincomeonluxurygoods-generallymanufactures-anddecreasingsharesonnecessitiesincludingfood.
TechnologicalDevelopments
•Technologyhasaffectedworldtradeinanumberofprimaryproductsthroughdevelopingsyntheticsubstitutesfornaturalrawmaterials.
•Syntheticsubstitutescanfrequentlybeproduceddomesticallywiththeresultthatinternationaltradeincertainnaturalrawmaterialshasexpandedonlyslowly.
ExpansionofMultinationalEnterprises
•Thesubstitutionbymultinationalenterprisesofforeignproductionforexports.
2.SomeUnderstandingofCountertrade
Althoughcashisthepreferredmethodofpayment,moreandmore,countertradesarebecominganimportantpartoftradewithEasternEurope,China,andtoavaryingdegreesomeLatinAmericanandAfricannations.
Countertradeisexchanginggoodsorservicesthatarepaidfor,inwholeorpart,withothergoodsorservices.
AccordingtotheLCR(LondonCountertradeRoundtable),Fourmainreasonsforcountertrade:
⏹Money-somepeoplecannotpayinthecurrencyyouwant
"toenabletradetotakeplaceinmarketswhichareunabletopayforimports.Thiscanoccurasaresultofanon-convertiblecurrency,alackofcommercialcreditorashortageofforeignexchange"
⏹ThePoliticalEnvironment-localjobsandindustry
"toprotectorstimulatetheoutputofdomesticindustries(includingagricultureandmineralextraction)andtohelpfindnewexportmarkets"
⏹ThePoliticalEnvironment-rulesandregulationstoprotectthehostcountry
"asareflectionofpoliticalandeconomicpolicieswhichseektoplanandbalanceoverseastrade"
⏹Competition–towininhighcompetition
"togainacompetitiveadvantageovercompetingsuppliers."
TypesofCountertrade
Countertradeincludesfourdistincttypesoftransactions:
1.offset(抵销贸易)2.counterpurcha(互购贸易)3.bartertrade(易货贸易)4.buy-back(回购贸易)5.switchtrading(转手贸易)
Offset
⏹Offsethastraditionallybeenusedbygovernmentsaroundtheworldwhentheyhavemademajorpurchasesofmilitarygoodsbutisbecomingincreasinglycommoninothersectors.Therearetwodistincttypes:
A.directoffset:
"thesupplieragreestoincorporatematerials,componentsorsub-assemblieswhichareprocuredfromtheimportingcountry.Insomelargecontracts,successfulbiddersmayberequiredtoestablishlocalproduction.Directoffsethasbeenparticularlycommonfortradeindefensesystemsandaircraft."
B.indirectoffset:
"thepurchaserrequiressupplierstoenterintolongtermindustrial(andother)co-operationandinvestmentbuttheseareunconnectedtothesupplycontractandmaybeeitherdefenserelatedorinthecivilsector."
⏹Theoverallobjectiveofoffseteither,directorindirect,inthedefensesectorgenerally:
❑topromoteimportsubstitution
❑tominimizethebalanceofpaymentsdeficit
CounterPurchase
⏹Definition:
"Aforeignsupplierundertakestopurchasegoodsandservicesfromthepurchasingcountryasaconditionofsecuringtheorder."
Forthistrade,twocontractsarenegotiated.Theselleragreestosellaproductatasetpricetoabuyerandreceivespaymentincash.However,thefirstcontractiscontingentonasecondcontractthatisanagreementbytheoriginalsellertobuygoodsfromthebuyerforthetotalmonetaryamountinvolvedinthefirstcontractorforasetpercentageofthatamount.
Counterpurchaseisprobablythemostfrequentlyusedtypeofcountertrade.AlsocanbecalledReciprocal(互惠贸易)orParallelTrade(平行贸易).
Forexample,McDonnellDouglassold22Dc-9sworth$100milliontoYugoslaviaand,inturn,agreedtosellorbuy$25millioninYugoslaviangoods.SomeofMcDonnellDonglas’scommitmenttoYugoslaviawassettledbybuyingYugoslavianequipmentforitsownuse,butitalsosoldtootherssuchitemsashams,ironcastings,rubberbumperguards,andtransmissiontowers.McDonnellDouglasheldshowingsfordepartment-storebuyerstosellglasswareandleathergoodstofulfilltheircounterpurchaseagreement.Twiceayear,companyofficialsmeettoclaimcreditsforsalesandclearthebooksinfulfillmentoftheircounterpurchaseagreement.
⏹Counterpurchaseisgenerallyimposedfortworeasons:
1.first,tostimulateexports;2.second,toalleviatethebalanceofpaymentdeficitresultingfromimportedgoods
⏹Advantages:
1.Thisarrangementprovidesthesellerwithmoreflexibilitythanthecompensationdealsincethereisgenerallyatimeperiod(6to12monthsorlonger)duringwhichthesecondcontracthastobecompleted;2.Further,thegoodstobepurchasedinthesecondcontractaregenerallyofgreatervarietythanthoseofferedinacompensationdeal.
BarterTrade
⏹Definition:
Barterisoneofthemostcommonmethodsofcountertrade.
"Inabarterdeal,goodsareexchangedforgoods-theprincipalexportispaidforwithgoods(orservices)fromtheimportingmarket."
Asinglecontractcoversbothflowsandinthesimplercase,nocashisinvolved.
Inpractice,however,thesupplyoftheprincipalexportisoftenreleasedonlywhenthesaleofthebarteredgoodshasgeneratedsufficientcash.
ThismeansifCountryAsellsminingequipmenttoCountryBinreturnforcigars-theywillprobablyholdsomeoftheminingequipmentbackuntiltheyhavemadesomegoodprofitfromthecigars.
❑Requirementforsellers:
Inabartertransaction,thesellermustbeabletodisposeofthegoodsatanetpriceequaltotheexpectedsellingpriceinaregular,for-cashtransaction.
Further,duringthenegotiationstageofabarterdeal,thesellermusthavesomeknowledgeofthemarketandthepricefortheitemsofferedintrade.
❑InformationChannel:
Becauseofthealmostlimitlessrangeofgoodsandqualitygradespossibleandalackofexpertiseorinformationnecessary,sellersrelyon(barterhouses)toprovideinformationandfindpotentialbuyersforthegoodsreceived.
Anotherpossibilityistheuseofaswitchtrader,anoutsiderwhowill“switch”thetradedgoodstoathirdcountrywhereamarketexists.
Buy-Back
⏹Definition:
"Here,suppliersofcapital,plantorequipmentagreetobepaidbythefutureoutputoftheinvestmentconcerned."
Forexampleexportersofequipmentforachemicalplantmayberepaidwithpartoftheresultingoutputfromthefactory.
Thispracticeismostcommonwithexportsofprocessplant,miningequipmentandsimilarorders.Buybackarrangementstendtobemuchlongertermandforlargeramountsthancounterpurchaseorbarterdeals.AlsocanbecalledCompensationTrade(补偿贸易).
⏹Thebuy-backagreementusuallyinvolvesoneoftwosituations:
❑theselleragreestoacceptaspartialpaymentacertainportionoftheoutputorthesellerreceivesfullpriceinitiallybutagreestobuybackacertainportionoftheoutput.
❑inanothersituation,GeneralMotorsCorporationboughtautosfromBrazilinpartialpaymentforbuildinganautomobilemanufacturingplantthere.
⏹Advantage:
Somehavefoundthataproductbuy-backagreementprovidesthemwithasupplementalsourceinanareaoftheworldwherethereisdemandbutwherethereisnoavailablesupply.
⏹Disadvantage:
Amajordrawbacktoproductbuy-backagreementscomeswhenthesellerfindsthattheproductsboughtbackareincompetitionwithitsownsimilarlyproducedgoods.
SwitchTrading
"Imbalancesinlongtermbilateraltradingagreementssometimesleadtothea
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