敏感性分析 Sensitivity Analysis 英语作文论文写作技巧.docx
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敏感性分析 Sensitivity Analysis 英语作文论文写作技巧.docx
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敏感性分析SensitivityAnalysis英语作文论文写作技巧
敏感性分析
SensitivityAnalysis-YouramazingguidetowardsSuccess
Heyguys.Lately,Ihavebeentalkingaboutanalysisalot.It’sbecauseanalysesarereallyimportantbeforeyoutakeanymajordecisions.Inthisarticle,IwilltalkaboutanothertypeofanalysisthatisSensitivityanalysis.
Sensitivityanalysisisamethodwhichisusedtoidentify,howvariousvaluesofanindependentvariablemakeanimpactonaparticularvariablewhichisdependentandisagivensetofassumptions.
Let’snowmoveontothedetails.
Inthisarticle,
Iwillcoverthefollowing:
WhatisSensitivityanalysis?
WhyshouldIuseSensitivityanalysis?
ConstraintsandSettingsinSensitivityanalysis.
ApplicationsofSensitivityanalysis.
PitfallsinSensitivityanalyses.Let’sgetstarted.
1)WhatisSensitivityanalysis?
Sensitivityanalysisisamethodtofindouthowtheunpredictabilityintheresultsofasystemormodelcanbeallotedtodifferentsourcesofunpredictabilityinitsinputs.
Thismethodisusedwithinsomeboundarieswhichdependsononeormoreinputvariables.Itincludestheeffectsthatchangeininterestrateshaveonthebondprices.
Sensitivityanalysisisalsoseenassimilartosimulationanalysis.Itisawaybywhichyoucanpredicttheoutcomeofadecisionwhichisgivenintheformofaparticularrangeofvariables.Withthecreationofasetofvariables,theanalystcanidentifythathowchangesinavariableputanimpactontheoutcome.
Amathematicalmodellikeaneconomicmodelcanbeveryhardtounderstand,andasaresult,it’srelationtoinputsandoutputswillnotbeunderstoodproperly.Inthesekindsofcases,themodelisviewedasablackbox,i.e.,theoutputisanuncertainwayofitsinputs.
Itoftenhappens,thatsomeofthemodelinputsareasourceofuncertainty.Itincludestheabsenceofinformation,errorsofmeasurementsandpoororlesserinformationoftheforcesthatderivethemechanisms.Thereshouldbenouncertaintyasiteffectsyourconfidenceandputsalimitintheresponseofthemodel.
Overview
ExampleOfSensitivityAnalysis
Weallneedthattheeffortsweputinshouldgiveresults.Theywillgivetheresultifyoufollowthemethodcorrectly.Thebestwayofmodelingpracticeiswhenthemodelergivesanevaluationoftheconfidenceinamodel.
Forthistohappen,firstlyyouneedavaluationoftheuncertaintyinanyofthemodelresults.Thisisalsoknownasuncertaintyanalysis.Secondly,youneedtoevaluatehowmucheachinputisgivingtotheoutputuncertainty.
Sensitivityanalysisisanecessaryforerunner.Itaddressesthe2ndoftheseissues.Italsoperformstheroleoforderingbyfocusingonstrengthandrelevanceoftheinputsandalsohelpsindeterminingthevariationsintheoutput.
Formodelswhichinvolvemanyinputvariables,sensitivityanalysisactsasanimportantingredientforqualityassuranceandmodelbuilding.Eventhenationalandinternationalcompaniesnowinvolvesensitivityanalysisintheirguidelinesforimpactassessment.
Sensitivityanalysisexample
JustimaginethatAlexisasalesmanagerandhewantstounderstandtheimpactofcustomertrafficonoverallsales.Hemadehismindthatsalesareaprocessofpriceandtransactionvolume.Onegadgetis$100,andAlexsold50thisyear,andthetotalsalecostcameouttobe$5,000.
Alexwasabletodeterminethattherewasaparticularpercentageofrisingincustomertrafficwhichledtotheraiseinthetransactionvolumeaswell.Thisinfoallowedhimtomakeafinancialmodelandsensitivityanalysis.Thiscannowtellhimthatwhatwillhappenifthecustomertrafficgrowsby5%,10%orupto100%.
Theraiseincustomertrafficbythesepercentagewillalsoshowtheriseintransactionvolumeortotalsale.Therewillbeanincreaseintransactionvolumeaswellwithsomeamountofnumbersconcerningthepercentageincreaseincustomertraffic.Thus,nowyoucanunderstandthathere,sensitivityanalysisshowcasethatsalesarehighlysensitivetoallvariationsinthecustomertraffic.
2)WhyshouldIuseSensitivityAnalysis?
Followingpointswillmakeitveryclear,thatwhyyoushouldusesensitivityanalysis.Sensitivityanalysis-
Increasestheunderstandingofthecorrelationbetweeninputandoutputvariablesinamodelorsystem.
Teststhestrengthoftheoutputofasystemormodelinthepresenceofuncertainty.
Searchfortheerrorsinthesystemormodelbyfindingouttheunexpectedrelationoftheoutputswiththeinputs.
Reducesuncertaintybyidentifyingmodelinputswhichcauseuncertaintyintheoutput.Itshould,therefore,bethecenterofattentiontogrowthestrength.Itcanonlyhappenbyadeepresearch.
Improvescommunicationbetweenmodelersanddecisionmakers.Ithappensbymakingrecommendationswhicharemoreunderstandable,credible,persuasiveorcompelling.
Helpsinmodelsimplificationbyfixingthemodelinputswhichhavezeroeffectontheoutputs.Itmayalsohappenbyverifyingandremovingunnecessarypartsofthemodelstructure.
Findsregioninthespaceofinputfactorsandforthis,themodeloutputiseitherminimumormaximumoritmeetssomeotheroptimumcriteria.
Seekstoidentifycrucialconnectionsbetweendifferentobservations,predictionsorforecastsandmodelinputs,whichleadstothedevelopmentofbettermodels.
Easesthecalibrationstagebyemphasizingthesensitiveparameters.Sensitivityparametersshouldbeknownaswithoutthattheresultcanbe,atotalwastageoftimebeingspentonthenon-sensitivesections.3)ConstraintsandSettingsinSensitivityanalysis
Themethodbywhichthesensitivityanalysiswillbedonedependsonsomesettingsorproblemconstraints.Iwillbediscussingthemostcommononeswithyou.
Followingaretheconstraintsorsettings:
Computationalexpense:
Sensitivityanalysisisperformedbyrunningapossiblylargemodelandsometimes.Itisasampling-basedinitialization.But,thiscanbecomeanissuewhen-
asingleworkoutprocessofamodel,takesaparticularamountoftimelikefewminutes,anhourormaylongerthanthat.Thishappenswithmuchdifficultmodels.
theamodelhasvariousnumberofuncertaininputs.Sensitivityanalysisgrowsasthenumberofinputsgrow.
Someofthemethodstoreducecomputationalexpenseincludestheuseofscreeningmethodstoreducethedimensionalityoftheissueandtheuseofemulatorsforlargermodels.Anothermethodwhichcanbeusedistodoaneventbasedsensitivityanalysisforvariableselectionwhiletime-constrainedapplications.
Correlatedinputs:
thisisoneofthemostcommonlyusedsensitivityanalysismethods.Itassumesindependenceinputsofmodels,butsometimestheseinputscanbestronglyinterrelated.
Nonlinearity:
Sometimes,resultsbasedonlinearregressioncanwronglycalculatesensitivity.Ithappenswhenthemodel’sdepictionisnonlinearconcerningtheinputs.
Modelinteractions:
Interactionshappenwhenthedisruptionoftwoormoreinputsoneafteranother,causesadifferenceintheresultsgreaterthanthatofchangingeachoftheinputsallalone.Theeffectofthisconstraintcanbecalculatedbythetotal-ordersensitivityindex.
MultipleOutputs:
Manymodelsresultoroutputabiggernumberofpossiblytime-dependentdata.However,forthosemodelsinwhichtheoutputsareinterrelated,itbecomeshardertointerpretthesensitivitymeasures.
Givendata:
Inmanycases,thepersonpracticing,hasaccesstothemodel.But,insomecases,asensitivityanalysismustbedonewith“givendata.”Itiswherethevaluesofthemodelinputscan’tbechosenbytheanalyst.Thishappenswhenthedataisusedforanuncertaintyanalysisoroptimizationorwhenthedataisderivedfromadiscretesource.ApplicationsofSensitivityAnalysis
Followingisthelistoffewexamplesofsensitivityanalysis,performedindifferentdisciplines:
i.Environmental
Environmentalcomputermodelsarevastlyusedinvariousvarietiesofstudiesandotherapplications.ItincludesGlobalClimatemodelswhichareusedforbothlong-termclimatechangeandshort-termweatherforecasts.
Computermodelsarenowhighlybeingusedforenvironmentaldecisionmakingonalocalscalelikeforexaminingtheimpactofawastewatertreatmentplantonaflowingriver,etc.Theanalysismayhelptounderstandthesephenomena.
ii.Business
Sensitivityanalysiscanhelpinvariouscircumstancesrelatedtobusiness.Ithelpsto:
Identifyseriousassumptionsorhelpstocomparedifferentmodelstructures.
Guideinforfuturedatacollections.
Improveresourcesallotment.
Improvethetoleranceofmanufacturedpartsinregardwiththevariationsintheparameters.
Multi-criteriadecisionmaking
MCDM,i.e.,Multi-criteriadecisionmakingstudiestheissueofhowtoselectthebestoneamongsomeotheralternativewhichcompetes.Thecriteriabehinditareconnectedwithweightsofimportance.
TherearesomeotherdisciplineexamplestoolikeSocialSciences,Chemistry,Engineering,Inthemeta-analysis,Time-criticaldecisionmakingandModelcalibrationandimprovement.Youwilldosomething.
PitfallsinSensitivityanalysis
Someofthecommondifficultieswithsensitivityanalysisareasfollows:
Therearewaytoomanymodelinputswhichhavetobeanalyzed.Screeningisusedtolessenupthedimensionality.
Themodeltakesalongerperiodtorun.But,Emulatorsareusedtolesseningthenumberofmodelrunswhichareneeded.
Thisanalysisprovideslesserinformationtomakeprobabilitydistributionsfortheinputs.
Ifthereisanunclearpurposeoftheanalysis,thenmanyvariantsofmeasuresandstatisticaltestsareappliedtotheproblem,andthereforedifferentfactorsrankingsaregained.
Toomanymodeloutput
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